Summary and Key Points: It was supposed to be one of the great strategic masterstrokes of the century. Over more than a decade, China dredged up coral and sand to build a chain of artificial island fortresses across the South China Sea — runways, radars, hangars, and harbors, some rivaling Pearl Harbor in scale, all designed to lock the United States and its allies out of the Pacific. But according to one regional analyst, Beijing may have overlooked something its own scientists could have warned it about: these islands sit on loose, waterlogged sand and coral.
Surprise, Surprise in the South China Sea
(Feb. 25, 2019) The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) transits the South China Sea at sunset, Feb. 25, 2019. The John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group is deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations in support of security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Ryan D. McLearnon/Released)
SOUTH CHINA SEA (Jan. 17, 2025) – The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) transits the South China Sea during a Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Philippine Navy, Jan. 17, 2025. The U.S. and Philippines work together as allies, enhancing the interoperability of maritime forces and supporting their shared goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Carrier Strike Group ONE, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Brianna Walker)
This practice by China was supposed to be a strategic masterstroke. In order to enforce Beijing’s flimsy claims of territorial ownership in the First Island Chain and the South China Sea, the Chinese reinforced a network of islands, rocks, seamounts, and reefs to increase the effectiveness of their anti-access/ area denial gambit to keep the United States and its allies down and out in the Indo-Pacific.
Now it looks like these militarized sea terrain features have a problem. The islands might be sinking and could be struck by a natural disaster. Robert T. Wagner of Philippine Strategies takes a closer look at what could be an epic fail by the Chinese.
“The truth is these structures face substantial risks from natural hazards prevalent in the region, including seismic-induced liquefaction leading to subsidence and sinking, as well as inundation from super typhoons,” Wagner wrote.
What Are the Militarized Islands?
The Chinese could be in for a shock from Mother Nature that would put their ample investment in money and man-hours to waste. The main installations are located in Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.
The People’s Republic thought it would be a good idea to beef these up militarily. They now have a network of radars, armed personnel, air strips, and hangars for warplanes.
Chinese Vaunted Naval Strategy Based on Location and Natural Resources
Xi Jinping figured he would carve out strategic waterways in the ocean, where one-third of global trade transits. The islands would allow his country to also take advantage of huge deposits of natural resources – namely, energy and fishing reserves. There could be 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas near the Spratlys, as Wagner pointed out.
(September 24, 2021). The navy’s only forward deployed aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) transits the South China Sea. Reagan is attached to Commander, Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 conducting underway operations in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Rawad Madanat)
Xi to American Allies: Keep Out and Stay Out
Xi believes that China owns the sea within the “Nine-Dash Line,” which encompasses the South China Sea, the West Philippine Sea, and other bodies of water. This is a controversial claim, and many countries dispute it.
“For the past 13 years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken extensive land reclamation projects in the southern Spratlys, transforming submerged reefs and seamounts into artificial islands totaling over 3,000 acres. These efforts, concentrated on features barely above the waves during extreme high tides, involve dredging coral reefs and depositing sediment to create habitable land,” according to Wagner.
Not Trusting the Science in the South China Sea
However, Chinese climatologists, meteorologists, and geologists may not have been consulted before construction. The islands could sink because of shifting plate tectonics and be wiped out by natural disasters. One typhoon could take out construction on an island, and the geology may not be kind to militarized terrain features as sea levels rise due to climate change.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy appears to have little preparation for this eventuality. Any severe storm could wreck all the construction on these rocks and reefs. It is not clear whether Xi has a backup plan for when the precious resources he thinks he owns cannot be protected against the hazards posed by weather and geological factors.
Amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8) and aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) perform expeditionary strike force (ESF) operations, Feb. 15, 2023 in the South China Sea. Nimitz Carrier Strike Group (NIMCSG) and amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8) with embarked 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are conducting joint ESF operations, representing unique high-end war fighting capabilities, maritime superiority, and power projection, demonstrating the U.S. commitment to our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Kendra Helmbrecht)
Some of These Islands Are As Big as Pearl Harbor
The Chinese have expended significant effort that could be at risk. “China’s island-building process involves ‘cutter-suction’ dredgers that excavate coral and sediment from the seabed, pumping it onto reefs to form landmasses. At Fiery Cross Reef, for instance, reclamation created a 274-hectare island with a 3,000-meter [nearly 10,000 feet] runway and a deepwater harbor, while Mischief Reef spans over eight miles in circumference, rivaling Pearl Harbor in scale. Subi Reef features a massive, enclosed harbor and extensive facilities. These sites, built on calcareous sands and coral fragments, are prone to instability because the underlying materials are loosely packed and water-saturated, conditions ideal for liquefaction during seismic events,” Wagner wrote.
Nature Strikes Back
There have also been earthquakes and tsunamis near the Spratlys, and these have been highly damaging to the islands in the past. Then there is the problem of liquefaction, “where ground shaking causes pore pressure buildup, leading to strata failure and subsidence.” This could cause massive ground failure in the Spratlys and jeopardize the entire terrain feature.
Xi Jinping Did Not Foresee the Risks
Xi Jinping should get an earful from his scientists about the risks, but he probably wouldn’t listen. The Chinese dictator is sure that his country owns the rights to militarize and extract oil and gas, no matter what international law says.
Science does not enter into his calculus of decision-making. But Beijing would be disappointed with a natural disaster or erosion of the island they care so much about.
China sometimes outsmarts itself and conducts imperial overreach. Xi may have to learn a powerful lesson that sometimes nature gets in the way of grand strategy. These militarized South China Sea islands may not be decisive in a war with the United States, and natural disasters are sometime low probability events, but perhaps Xi has made a big mistake with his reclamation efforts.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
