One aspect of total warfare is that civilians often suffer. Russia and Ukraine have bombarded each other without mercy throughout the conflict.
Both sides are used to ducking for cover and entering bomb shelters at all times, and the threat from missiles and drones is a recurring nightmare for all involved.
A U.S. M1A1 Abrams tank needed for training the Armed Forces of Ukraine awaits offloading at Grafenwoehr, Germany, May 14, 2023. The M1A1 training is expected to last several weeks and will include live fire, crew qualification, maneuver, and maintainer training. Armed Forces of Ukraine training is conducted by 7th Army Training Command at Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels training areas in Germany on behalf of U.S. Army Europe and Africa. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Christian Carrillo)
Ukraine, though, has entered into a form of combat that is also hitting ordinary Russians hard.
Kyiv has opted to attack oil refineries and processing plants, as well as transportation and other energy infrastructure, strikes that are hurting the country. Gasoline shortages are rampant throughout Russia, and power outages are common.
Russians Feel This In Their Wallets
The price of gas has gone through the roof, and that leaves Russians wondering if the war has entered a new phase in which civilians will continue to pay a high price for fuel and safety.
The Latest Indignity
The energy situation has become so dire that Russia is now planning ways to import oil and gasoline from other countries.
This is an insult to the nation that has always considered itself a global leader in crude and natural gas production and reserves.
“Discussions are actively being held,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, as noted by Politico, adding that imports would begin if oil and gas purchases could be reached “at acceptable price points.” He did not say which countries are involved.
An M1A2 Abrams tanks, assigned to 1st Battalion, 16th Infantry Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, maneuver into fighting position during a battalion live-fire range during Agile Spirit 19 at Orpholo Training Area, Georgia, August 9, 2019. AgS19 is a joint, multinational exercise co-led by the Georgian Defense Forces and U.S. Army Europe which incorporates a command post exercise, field training and joint multinational live fires. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. True Thao)
India Steps Into the Breach
However, Reuters reported on July 1 that the new imports would come from India.
The Indians have been supporters of Russia for years; although Russia’s energy industry is not known as a world leader, it does export large amounts of oil and gas.
The United States and the West will likely be upset at New Delhi for acquiescing to the Russians at their time of need.
Strangling the Russian energy supply is seen as a strategic win for NATO and the United States. This form of economic warfare has been effective so far.
“An industry source said at least 60,000 metric tons of gasoline have been dispatched from India to Russia. Another source said that two tankers, with parcels of 30,000 to 40,000 tons each, have been sent,” according to Reuters.
This Country Now Does Not Have the Perpetual ‘Gas Station’ Status
This oil crisis is a stunning development for Russia, which has been described as a “gas station” with nuclear weapons masquerading as a country.
Russia, dating back to the Soviet era, has long been dependent on oil exports to provide hard currency and boost the economy.
Now the country could be a net importer of hydrocarbons, and that is an insult to Vladimir Putin, who has always assumed his natural resources are unlimited.
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of oil and natural gas. It is the third-largest supplier of refined petroleum products, Politico explained. So, this new level of shortages is embarrassing.
Gas Reserves Are Dwindling
Even Putin has admitted that the Russian energy situation is dire. The country has lost 1.7 million metric tons of gasoline reserves.
This can be directly attributed to attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
“Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has described imports as one of the government’s key tools for stabilizing the market, while Russian lawmakers last week approved tax changes creating subsidies to help finance gasoline purchases from abroad,” according to Politico.
Russia has long gas lines throughout the country, with rationing and higher prices. This has shocked the consumers who haven’t had to conserve energy in years.
Ukraine has found a weakness and is exploiting it with daily strikes on Russian oil and gas production sites and refineries.
Russia Is Thirsty for Fuel
Russia needs over 110,000 tons of fuel each day, especially in the summer when more people drive. Even with the Indian imports, there will still be a shortage until the supply is back in balance with demand.
Belarus is also trying to export energy to Russia. The Russian ally has provided 70,000 tons in June, which is triple the typical shipment.
Shocking Development That Ukraine Is Exploiting
Putin clearly has a problem on his hands. The supply shock will likely be alleviated for now, but Ukraine can always keep pounding away with drone and missile strikes against Russian oil and gas sites.
This is a significant development in the war. Russian civilians are feeling pain at the pump, are complaining vociferously, and are now realizing that this war has become unpopular.
Strikes on Oil Sites Will Continue
Russia’s reputation as a global leader in natural resources is taking a hit, and this will have repercussions.
The oil imports must continue if the military strikes keep damaging gasoline supplies. Putin may have no choice but to work with allies to keep the supply even with demand.
But there is Russia’s own oil export business to be worried about. If the country becomes a net importer, Moscow would lose a key revenue source that normally funds the war.
Ukraine is reacting to all of this with glee. The decision to bombard Russia’s oil and gas industry is a winning tactical development, and we look for more strikes to commence.
Russia hardly has enough air defense systems to protect its cities, and the oil and gas industrial sites are largely unprotected, which means more economic pain for the country that cannot afford to lose in this type of resource warfare.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
