Russia and Ukraine Are Promising to Escalate: Both Ukraine and Russia are vowing to escalate and intensify the war after Moscow launched one of its biggest missile and drone attacks of the conflict, causing chaos in Kyiv and destroying residential buildings. The large-scale attacks prompted new Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory overnight.
Rescue crews continued their search through the rubble in Ukraine’s capital city on Friday as the death toll from the Thursday night attack climbed to at least 30 people, with more than 90 injured. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promised to retaliate for the strikes, while the Kremlin has also said that it would continue increasing military pressure until its objectives are achieved.
An Estonian Defense Forces M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) fires a training rocket during a live-fire exercise in Undva, Estonia, July 11, 2025. U.S. Army elements from Bravo Battery, 1st Battalion, 14th Field Artillery Regiment, 75th Field Artillery Brigade, supporting Task Force Voit, assisted in the training process. The task force was originally formed in 2023 to support the Estonian Defense Forces in the creation of a HIMARS unit. Task Force Voit works closely with the Estonian Armed Forces, sharing critical defense strategies, training, and military readiness support. The presence of U.S. troops in the region serves as a cornerstone of NATO’s commitment to security in the Baltic region. The task force provides combat-credible forces to V Corps, America’s only forward-deployed corps in Europe. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Rose Di Trolio)
The latest exchange of fire is a sign of what’s to come, with both sides refusing to back down and focusing more costly resources – including ballistic and cruise missiles – on devastating cities and critical infrastructure rather than focusing entirely on front-line gains.
Russia Launches Massive Assault On Kyiv
Russia launched an overnight attack that saw 74 missiles and almost 500 drones launched at Ukrainian targets. It was one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, and Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv appeared to be the primary target. The bombardment resulted in around 130 buildings across the capital city being damaged, including apartment blocks and other civilian infrastructure. One nine-story residential building suffered catastrophic damage following a missile explosion.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that it was Russia’s “most massive attack on the capital” in a statement and declared Friday a day of mourning.
Ukraine’s emergency services continued searching collapsed buildings on Friday and warned that more victims could still be trapped beneath the rubble. Statements also described how children and emergency responders are among those who have been injured in the strikes.
The attack also destroyed a major humanitarian warehouse operated by the Ukrainian Red Cross, which said that around 320,000 emergency relief items were destroyed in the strikes.
One of the biggest publishing companies in Ukraine, BookChef Publishing, also reported that around 800,000 books were destroyed after a warehouse was hit during the attack.
Zelenskyy Demands More Air Defenses
After touring the destruction left behind in the capital city, Zelenskyy insisted that Ukrainian forces would “definitely” respond to the latest strikes. To continue his long-range strike campaign against Russia, however, he must first secure the air defense systems he needs to protect against Russian aggression. Following the strikes, Zelenskyy sought the help of Western allies, requesting more air defense systems and suggested that promised deliveries have so far been too slow to keep up with the pace of Russian attacks.
“We also separately reviewed the volumes and timelines for the delivery of air defenses that are needed on an almost daily basis. In the coming days, the key priority across all diplomatic work, all meetings and negotiations will be air defense for Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who is helping. I am proud of everyone who produces defense capabilities for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a statement issued on X.
Kremlin Vows to Increase Pressure
Moscow has indicated that the campaign will intensify further. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during his daily conference call with reporters on Thursday, July 2, that President Vladimir Putin had been briefed by Russia’s military leadership on the overnight strikes against Kyiv and defended the operation as a response to recent Ukrainian strikes in Russian territory. When asked about European Union plans for additional sanctions against Russia, Peskov said that Moscow would continue “increasing pressure on the Kyiv regime in order to achieve the goals it has set.”
In a separate statement, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the overnight barrage had targeted Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and energy facilities supporting defense production. The ministry described the strikes, which killed civilians, as a like-for-like retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, and said that all designated targets were hit.
Will Russia Target NATO Next?
Putin has already shown that Moscow is willing to escalate by hitting Kyiv harder than it has before, but the escalation could soon go beyond Ukraine. Speaking to RMF FM radio on Wednesday, July 1, Polish minister Tomasz Siemoniak revealed that Polish and allied Western intelligence agencies are growing concerned that Russia could be preparing to stage a hybrid or limited military attack against Poland or the Baltic states to test NATO’s resolve.
In other words, Putin might want to see what would happen if NATO territory were hit.
Siemoniak said Polish intelligence has observed suspicious interest from individuals linked to Russian intelligence services around military bases and critical infrastructure.
“We observe the interest of people who are commissioned by Russian services in various facilities which are important from the Polish-Ukrainian point of view,” Siemoniak said.
When asked directly about the potential for Russian attacks against Poland or the Baltic states, he noted that “Russia has an arsenal of such actions” and that “they are preparing them.”
“We have to take into account various possibilities,” he continued.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization
