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Ukraine War

Putin’s War Just Became Deadlier Than Stalingrad: Russian Casualties Hit Two Million — Roughly One Percent of the Entire Population

Ukrainian drones struck port oil infrastructure near St. Petersburg and the Kronstadt naval base, more than 850 kilometers from the border, evading defenses around one of Russia’s best-protected cities. Recent estimates put Russian casualties at two million — about one percent of the population, making the war deadlier than Stalingrad.

Putin in June 2016 Image Credit Russian Federation Photo
Putin in June 2016 Image Credit Russian Federation Photo

Ukraine struck one of Russia’s main oil facilities in what is shaping up to be another blow against Russia’s ability to refine and transport its major source of state revenue.

Posting to X, formerly Twitter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the strikes. “Last night, our Ukrainian long-range sanctions against Russia over this war reached targets near St. Petersburg,” the president wrote. “Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck port oil infrastructure that generates revenue for Russia’s war, and there were also successful strikes on Kronstadt – an important military target- and one of Russia’s naval bases, the president said, explaining that “the distance from Ukraine’s state border is more than 850 kilometers.”

T-84 Tank from Ukraine War

T-84 Tank from Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

T-84 Tank Ukraine

T-84 Tank Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Video posted along with the Ukrainian president’s message showed clouds of acrid, black smoke billowing from port infrastructure and warehouses in St. Petersburg, clear evidence that the Ukrainian strikes had managed to evade Russian air defenses yet again — a remarkable achievement against what was believed to be one of Russia’s best-protected major urban centers.

Ukrainian Long-range Sanctions: Putin Feels the Pain 

The strikes are part of what Volodymyr Zelensky has previously described as his country’s “long-range sanctions,” part of a broader effort to hit at the heart of the Kremlin’s coffers and harm Russia’s ability to finance the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The attacks, using long-range, explosive-laden attack drones as well as Ukraine’s growing crop of Flamingo cruise missiles. According to Ukraine, 43 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity has been taken offline by the strikes.

Though the accuracy of that precise figure is difficult to verify, the effects of Ukraine’s campaign have been evident. Fuel shortages have been experienced in many of Russia’s regions — one survey by Mediazona, an independent Russian outlet, found that fuel rationing is in effect in 56 of Russia’s regions, and that in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, fuel is unavailable, with exceptions seemingly made for military purposes.

The fuel shortage within Russia — one of the world’s leading oil and gas producers — has forced the country to purchase gasoline from India. Belarus, too, has dramatically ramped up fuel exports to Russia, with Reuters also reporting that rail shipments have tripled, to more than 70,000 tons in the first half of June.

Russian President Admits to Shortages, but Denies Severity

In one major sign that the fuel pinch is becoming a serious disruption within the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the shortages. “As for the attacks on critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, they are, of course, creating problems. That is obvious. We are currently seeing certain shortages,” he admitted, though the Russian president downplayed the seriousness of the shortages, saying they “are not critical.” It was a significant break, as the Russian president has typically refrained from addressing his Ukrainian adversary, as well as setbacks on the battlefield.

This latest battering of Russia’s number two city comes just weeks after an earlier series of strikes against St. Petersburg during the city’s annual economic forum, one of the most important economic events of the year. During those strikes, Ukrainian munitions struck energy targets around the city, casting a pall over the event that was powerfully both literal and figurative.

Seesawing Battlefield Movements in the Ukraine War

But against the backdrop of burning Russian cities as well as oil and gas infrastructure, Ukraine is managing to stave off a wide Russian advance on the battlefield — but the situation is perilous.

While President Putin has insisted that the Kremlin’s forces are advancing through Ukraine’s eastern Donbas regions — going so far as to say that Russia controls Kostiantynivka, one of Ukraine’s eastern bastions — President Zelensky pushed back against that claim emphatically.

“Of course, [the Russian capture of Kostiantynivka] is not true. It is just another Russian lie, an attempt to generate some kind of a news story,” the Ukrainian president stressed. “If Kostiantynivka were under Russian control, then perhaps Putin would have no problem meeting me there to find a diplomatic way to finally end this war. But the fact is, he won’t cross the front line – reality is very different from Putin’s words.”

According to recent estimates, Russian casualties have reached two million killed and wounded — about one percent of the Russian population.

The figure also makes the war in Ukraine deadlier than the Battle of Stalingrad, widely considered one of the bloodiest battles of the Second World War.

While predictions of Russia’s imminent downfall have proliferated thanks to Ukraine’s burgeoning air prowess, the Russian state’s collapse is far from certain.

Barring a change of leadership at the top, Russian forces will continue to muddle along.

About the Author: Caleb Larson

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

Caleb Larson
Written By

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war's shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war's civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

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