A Coup Could Be the End for Putin

Throughout the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s firm grip on power in Russia has not slipped.

However, cracks in Moscow’s control have begun to appear. From dissatisfied officials and declining living standards to disillusioned military personnel, the possibility of a coup against leaders in the Kremlin is slowly rising.

But how likely is a coup to oust President Vladimir Putin – and is that truly the best outcome?

Political Landscape and Putin’s Grip on Power

Putin has cemented his grip on power over two decades through a combination of authoritarian control, election manipulation, suppression of dissent, and a loyal security apparatus. His recent “re-election” in 2024 extended his rule until at least 2030. But cracks are beginning to show in the facade of stability.

Throughout the course of the war, there have been a series of high-profile arrests and dismissals within the Russian military and defense establishment. For example, Major General Ivan Popov, a former commander of the 58th Army, was arrested after publicly criticizing the Defense Ministry’s handling of the war in Ukraine. His arrest – along with the mysterious deaths of other officials and the resignation of several deputies – indicates instability beneath the surface.

However, I want to caution readers against believing every alarmist story that emerges from Moscow. Some outlets reported that certain generals were sacked or fired when, in fact, they were simply retiring from their posts. (In Russia, retirement is mandatory at the age of 70 for certain offices). Not every change in office is a sign of political purges.

Military Discontent and the Shadow of Mutiny

The Russian military has borne the brunt of the war in Ukraine, suffering heavy casualties and enduring logistical and strategic failures. Discontent among officers and soldiers has been growing, especially as the war drags on with no clear victory in sight. Yet in a recent report by The New York Times, Russian interviewees expressed support for the war and stated that they were still willing to fight, despite the harsh conditions. If the war continues for another three years, however, these attitudes may change.

The most dramatic sign of discontent came in 2023 with the Wagner Group’s short-lived mutiny, during which mercenaries marched toward Moscow before abruptly standing down. This event was a bizarre set piece within the broader story of the war. But while the rebellion failed, it exposed vulnerabilities in the Kremlin’s control over armed factions and highlighted the potential for insurrection.

Quite frankly, a military coup would be one of the worst-case scenarios for Ukraine. Many officials who have criticized Putin’s war effort seek to escalate the conflict, not end it. As bad as Putin may be, many Russian military officials could be far more aggressive. While ousting Putin might seem like a victory for the West, the majority of Russia’s top generals would sooner escalate to nuclear confrontation with Ukraine and NATO than pursue diplomacy. If a coup were to occur in Moscow, it must not come from the military.

Economic Pressures and Public Sentiment

Russia’s economy has been under severe strain due to Western sanctions, reduced energy revenues, and the costs of the war. The Kremlin, for its part, has done everything in its power to minimize the economic impact. Even so, cracks in the economy have appeared, even if they are subtle. Inflation, unemployment, and declining living standards will eventually erode public support the longer the war continues. Even if protests remain rare and sparsely attended, public discontent is likely to grow.

Throughout the war, I have tried as much as possible to gauge Russian public sentiment through Telegram channels, private blogs, independent Russian news sources, and more. This has proven difficult because of Russia’s isolation from global internet spaces and its surprising diversity of opinions. Russia is a vast country with a population of 144 million. Opinions on the war vary significantly from region to region, but the vast majority of Russians appear to be indifferent to, or even supportive of, the war.

What Are Other Experts Saying?

Analysts at institutions like the Atlantic Council and Politico have outlined several possible futures for Russia. These range from democratic reform (with a 5–10% likelihood) to a technocratic transition or even a military junta. While a full-scale democratic revolution is unlikely in the short term, the idea of a coup – especially one led by disaffected military or intelligence officials – is no longer unthinkable. Again, I must stress that this is not a desirable outcome.

Most experts agree that the most likely scenario is continued authoritarian rule under Putin, possibly accompanied by increased repression and internal purges. Despite alarming reports of Russia’s crumbling economy and weakened military, the reality is that the Kremlin’s authority remains relatively stable and unchallenged.

However, the probability of a coup has risen to a level that policymakers and analysts can no longer ignore.

About the Author:

Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.

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