The Strait of Hormuz Is Emptying Again–and the Stakes Have Never Been Higher: Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, has again fallen to near-zero levels since the resumption of hostilities between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Because of those hostilities, the US has both continued its aerial bombardment of the Islamic Republic and imposed its naval counter-blockade of the SoH. The Iranians, for their part, have retaliated by hitting US-aligned countries throughout the region–and threatening to go farther.
These moves have effectively collapsed vessel movements through the SoH, underscoring the way in which the Iran War, which began on February 28 for a variety of reasons (regime change, humanitarian protection of Iranian protesters, nuclear weapons fears, and annoyance over Iran’s growing missile and drone arsenal), none of which included reopening the SoH, is now entirely about reopening the blocked waterway.
Majors Michael Shower and Evan Dertien, F/A-22 Raptor pilots, and Captains Thomas Borrego and Eric Nyman, F-15 Eagle pilots, prepare for a flyover during the Air Combat Command Tattoo ceremonies held at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia September 8th and 9th, 2005. Langley’s new Raptor had a major role in this modern day version of a traditional retreat ceremony. Integrated into its music, drill, and ceremony are aircraft flyovers, fireworks, and dialogue that traces the Virginia Peninsula’s long and historic relationship with America’s armed forces. (USAF Photo by TSgt Ben Bloker)
A crew chief from the 158th Fighter Wing taxis an F-35 II Lightning in for rapid refueling and rearming, July 24, 2025, at Westover Air Reserve Base, Chicopee, Mass.
During the D-ICT exercise, F-15’s from the 104th Fighter Wing and F35’s from the 158th Fighter Wing received simultaneous rapid rearming and refueling from the 103AW C-130H Hercules with all engines running. Performing these D-ICT exercises helps aircraft quickly return to their mission and highlights our ability to distribute and operate from anywhere. (U.S. Air National Guard Photo by Jay Hewitt)
Military strategists fear that the current round of escalation will ensure global instability that disrupts shipping–and all aspects of the global economy–so significantly, it could negatively harm the US strategic position in the Middle East.
Tankers Are Disappearing
Vessel-tracking data show only a handful of ships transiting through the waterway. Whereas before the war, an average of 140 ships passed through the Strait daily, when the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) went into effect two weeks ago, barely 140 were making it through per week.
Now, with the war restarted, there are maybe a dozen or fewer. At some point, because of the increased fighting there, ships won’t be moving at all through the contested Strait.
Most importantly, vessel tracking data confirm that the all-important Very Large Crude Container (VLCC) ships and massive LNG tankers have been largely absent from these limited movements through the Strait since the war restarted.
There has already been a collapse in the availability of critical energy sources globally since the SoH was shut and the war began on February 28. Many countries were eking out an existence, thanks to the availability of reserves, notably in the United States, highlighting the conflict’s direct threat to global energy security.
The limited vessels currently transiting through the SoH are smaller commercial ships. In fact, Reuters reports that several oil tankers have either turned back, anchored outside the Gulf, or altered their routes due to security concerns.
Even the act of altering their routes, while sensible, adds time to the journeys these ships must take between their point of origin and their destination. And the longer routes (especially the one around the southern tip of Africa) are extremely expensive because of the time and fuel they add to the journey.
There appears to be a slowdown in accessing these reserves, as they have been effectively drained to near-zero, and rationing will take hold soon (unless a miracle occurs and the war stops).
Airstrikes Alone Won’t Reopen the Strait
Tehran maintains that it has authority over the Strait of Hormuz. The Americans disagree. Military analysts have stressed that airstrikes alone, of the kind that the Americans are currently engaging in, will not prove strategically effective.
What’s the point of these strikes, after all?
They certainly won’t lead to regime collapse and change. That’s been tried. It did not work.
What’s more, the air campaign alone will not force Iran to reopen the SoH. It will likely just harden their resolve to strangle the Strait longer, ensuring that the United States suffers an economic calamity resulting from skyrocketing oil prices (due to a shortage of that critical supply). And the longer the Iranians squeeze the Strait, the more trouble the US political regime is in–so much so that it could lead to a complete overturning of the power dynamic in the Legislative Branch.
The Strategic and Economic Risks Are Mounting
Plus, talk about the US Navy and other supporting elements providing overwatch of ships passing through the contested Strait will not last long, because the resources required to support such operations are too great–and costly–meaning the US cannot be relied upon to protect every ship that passes through. This limited capacity increases the risk of disruptions and affects global energy security.
So, the sharp reduction in shipping because of the restarting of the war raises the risk of both renewed disruptions to global energy supplies and an increase in the chances of a total economic reset that could easily lead to regime change in the United States and a total strategic defeat of the United States military in the Middle East.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
