The United States Links Iran’s Hormuz Demands to China’s South China Sea Pressure: The United States is linking the fight over the Strait of Hormuz to maritime disputes closer to Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN foreign ministers that allowing Iran to control passage and collect compulsory payments could create a model for other governments seeking leverage over international waterways. The Associated Press reported that Rubio presented the issue as a threat to global commerce rather than a dispute confined to the Persian Gulf.
Rubio’s warning came as Washington continued military operations against Iran and left the door open to negotiations. In his official ASEAN remarks, he said the United States remained committed to Southeast Asia despite the Middle East conflict. That assurance matters because regional governments have long worried that another war could draw American attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific.
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) participates in a photo exercise alongside the U.S. Coast Guard and the Royal Canadian Navy during Operation NANOOK (OP NANOOK), Aug. 18, 2024. OP NANOOK is the Canadian Armed Forces’ annual series of Arctic exercises designed to enhance defense capabilities, ensure the security of northern regions, and improve interoperability with Allied forces. Black participated in the operation alongside the U.S. Coast Guard and Canadian and Danish Allies to bolster Arctic readiness and fulfill each nation’s defense commitments. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Rylin Paul)
ASEAN governments have a direct economic interest in reopening Hormuz. Their July 21 statement called for an immediate end to hostilities and a return to diplomacy. An earlier ASEAN declaration also defended safe passage through international straits under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The timing made Rubio’s comparison more immediate. China and the Philippines summoned each other’s ambassadors after a July 20 confrontation at Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine officials said a sailor was struck and a rubber boat was damaged, while Beijing blamed Manila for provoking the encounter. Reuters documented the competing accounts and the diplomatic escalation.
ASEAN Sees the Iran War as an Asian Energy Crisis
Most of the energy moving through Hormuz travels toward Asian buyers. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said Asia had received roughly 80 to 90 percent of the affected oil and gas flows, with developing economies facing some of the harshest effects. His warning on the regional energy shock explained why ASEAN ministers placed the Middle East war alongside the South China Sea at the top of their agenda.
U.S. strikes can damage Iranian radars, launchers, command sites, and maritime forces. They cannot eliminate the geographic leverage created by the strait itself. Shipping companies still decide whether crews, tankers, and cargoes can accept the risk. Recent traffic data has shown that formal access does not restore commercial confidence.
(Aug. 22, 2023) Gunner’s Mate 2nd Class Chase Allen maintains the barrel of a Mark 45 5-inch light-weight gun on the fo’c’sle of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) in the Pacific Ocean, Aug. 22, 2023. Paul Hamilton is deployed to the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Elliot Schaudt)
China and the Philippines Make Rubio’s Comparison Immediate
Rubio’s argument points toward the South China Sea without claiming that Iran and China are pursuing identical policies. Iran sits beside a narrow international strait and has sought a recognized role in its administration. China claims most of a much larger sea and has built military facilities on disputed features while using coast guard and maritime forces to press smaller claimants.
The overlap concerns commercial coercion. Iran has demonstrated that uncertainty can reduce shipping without a complete blockade. China’s artificial-island network gives Beijing permanent surveillance and military positions across contested waters. A government does not have to stop every vessel when inspections, collisions, warnings, and selective enforcement can change commercial behavior.
Rubio met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the Manila gathering. Reuters reported that the meeting covered the Middle East and South China Sea tensions. China rejected outside criticism and argued that regional disputes should be handled without external interference.
The United States Needs One Maritime Rule in Both Regions
Washington’s position is stronger when it applies the same principle consistently: coastal states can provide navigation and safety services, but they cannot make payment or political submission the price of ordinary passage. That leaves room for a negotiated Hormuz service arrangement while rejecting unilateral Iranian control. The available American exit options still depend on rules that shipping companies and Gulf states can accept.
The same standard matters in the South China Sea. ASEAN and China have spent years negotiating a code of conduct intended to prevent confrontations from becoming a larger conflict. The July clash shows why that process needs procedures for resupply missions, coast guard encounters, communications, and emergency assistance.
ASEAN ministers will now watch two practical measures: whether large tankers resume regular Hormuz crossings without compulsory Iranian permission, and whether Chinese and Philippine forces avoid another confrontation at Second Thomas Shoal. Those outcomes will determine whether current diplomacy can keep two important maritime routes governed by agreed rules.
About the Author: Harry J. Kazianis
Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) was the former Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI), a foreign policy think tank founded by Richard Nixon based in Washington, DC. Harry has over a decade of experience in think tanks and national security publishing. His ideas have been published in the NY Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and many other outlets worldwide. He has held positions at CSIS, the Heritage Foundation, the University of Nottingham, and several other institutions related to national security research and studies. He is the former Executive Editor of the National Interest and the Diplomat. He holds a Master’s degree focusing on international affairs from Harvard University.
