President Donald Trump is approaching the November midterms with approval ratings holding at a record low, with voters evidently concerned that the war with Iran is unlikely to end any time soon.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that just 31% of Americans support U.S. military action against Iran, down from 34% earlier in August and 37% in March, shortly after the conflict began.
President Donald Trump gives remarks after presenting the newly-created “Medal of Sacrifice” to three fallen officers’ families from the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office, Monday, May 19, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
President Donald Trump attends an event celebrating the 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Champion Florida Gators, Wednesday, May 21, 2025, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Trump’s overall job approval remained at just 33% for a second consecutive survey by Reuters/Ipsos, matching the lowest level recorded during either of his terms in office.
Trump now has less than 10 weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, with Republicans struggling to defend their narrow congressional majorities and voters paying more than $4 per gallon at the pump.
And with the Iran war still far from being over, it looks like the Republicans are on track to lose – and Trump could be left with a final two years in office with virtually no legislative power.
Support for the War Keeps Falling
The decline in support for the president appears to be motivated largely by the war in Iran – and it is particularly notable among Republicans, who have been considerably more supportive of that military campaign than Democrats or independents.
Reuters/Ipsos found that 69% of Republican respondents now support military action against Iran, compared with 77% in March. Overall support has also fallen six percentage points over the same period.
Other surveys have found the same trend.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted August 14-17 found that 57% of Americans now believe going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, compared with just 25% who said it was the right decision.
The share of voters describing the war as a mistake has increased six percentage points since April.
Even Republican voters are finally showing signs of fatigue over the conflict. While 85% of Democrats told YouGov that starting the war was a mistake, 22% of Republicans agreed.
Americans Expect A Long War
The polling also suggests that Americans expect the war to continue for some time. The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 83% of Americans believe the war will continue for an “extended” period of time, up from 80% earlier this month.
An Economist/YouGov survey also found that 50% of respondents expect the war to continue for at least another year, compared with 32% when the question was first asked in early March.
Only 27% believed that the United States is currently winning the conflict, while 22% said Iran is winning and 35% said neither side currently has the advantage.
Some 65% said Washington should reach an agreement to end the war as quickly as possible, including 48% of Republicans – suggesting that Trump has a task ahead of him to win over roughly half of his own party.
But the president is already publicly rejecting pressure to establish a timeline to wind down the war, instead announcing economic warfare against Iran and stating that he is “low-keying it” in terms of continued military strikes.
“I have no time schedule,” Trump said in an interview on August 17. “I’m not in a hurry.”
Trump also appeared to suggest that the upcoming congressional elections are no longer influencing his decision-making, saying that the midterms have “nothing to do with my thinking.” It could, then, be an admission that the president is no longer concerned about restraining his decisions based on the upcoming elections and is instead focused on doing what he believes is necessary – and if that’s the case, it could also indicate that the president is preparing to govern with executive orders during the final two years of his presidency.
The War Is An Economic Problem
The Iran war is far more than just a foreign policy issue, with gas prices skyrocketing and the global economy still suffering from a shortage of supply.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July – the lowest reading in seven months.
Survey responses showed continued concern about prices, particularly for gasoline and oil, while references to war and geopolitics have also increased.
Inflation has remained elevated, too – and that’s a problem for a president who campaigned on bringing it down.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was 3.7% higher in June than a year earlier, compared with 2.8% immediately before the February 28 opening strikes against Iran.
For Republicans, the danger now is that these pressures converge and worsen by November.
Higher energy costs will keep the war visible to most Americans even as fighting slows, and declining confidence makes it harder for the president to persuade skeptical voters that his strategy is working.
November will be the ultimate test of Trump’s strategy, but so far, it’s not looking good for the Republicans.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
