Will the Iran War doom the GOP in 2028? – The Iran War is not only historically unpopular, but it doesn’t appear it will end anytime soon, with its current stalemate very likely extending into 2027. As a result, Iran is likely to emerge as a live issue in the 2028 presidential campaign.
What effect will Iran have on 2028? With that election more than two years away, it’s likely way too early to say for sure. But it raises fascinating questions in both parties.
Vice President JD Vance gives remarks at a Sports Council announcement, Thursday, July 31, 2025, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. (White House Intern Photo by Julian Casciano)
Two Primaries, Two Iran Fights
With President Trump term-limited, both parties are likely to have contested presidential primaries in 2028. The Democratic side will almost certainly have a long list of candidates, while Vice President JD Vance is probably going to run for the presidency, although he’ll likely face some challenges.
It may end up looking like the presidential election of 20 years before, in 2008, when there was a Republican president, George W. Bush, who was presiding over an unpopular war that he had started. However, there are key differences: That year, in the general election at least, the continuing Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan mattered less than the economic crisis in the fall of 2008.
Another difference? The Democrats are more united now, at least on Iran, than they were in 2008.
The Obama Precedent
In the 2008 presidential contest, a key difference on the Democratic side was that Sen. Hillary Clinton, who entered the race a heavy favorite, had voted in the Senate in 2002 to authorize the Iraq War. Sen. Barack Obama, who was not yet in the Senate at the time of the vote, was clear at the time that he opposed the war.
A Politico headline in January 2008 stated, “Obama beats Hillary over head with Iraq,” and his opposition to a war that Democratic voters strongly opposed certainly helped Obama win the Democratic primary, and ultimately the presidency.
Barack Obama. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
However, the 2028 Democratic primary is unlikely to have any major candidates who ever expressed public support for Trump’s Iran adventure. The Senate never authorized a war before the initial invasion in February, although it has held multiple votes on War Powers Act resolutions, in which every Democratic Senator has voted together except Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA).
Fetterman, who is up for re-election in 2028, is unlikely to run for president, although if he did mount a presidential campaign on a hawkish platform, he almost certainly won’t go far.
Much more likely to emerge as a contentious major foreign policy disagreement in the 2028 campaign is Israel, and whether the Democrats should move away from their longtime support for that country. Among possible Democratic candidates in 2028, some, like Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, have historically supported Israel, while others, like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), have been more critical.
Many in the Democratic electorate blame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for convincing Trump to carry out the initial Iran invasion. So it’s very possible that Democratic presidential debates in the 2028 cycle will involve candidates accusing one another of not standing up to Israel when they push for the U.S. to go to war.
AOC. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
However, it’s unlikely that anyone running for president as a Democrat will express support for Trump’s ongoing Iran war or argue, as some did in the Bush era, that the war itself wasn’t bad but that Bush had done a poor job fighting it, described in 2005 as “the Incompetence Dodge.”
It’s not clear which Democrat would be best positioned to challenge the GOP on Iran, although someone with a military background, like Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), could make a convincing case.
As for the Republicans…
Possibly more intriguing will be the Republican primaries, in which JD Vance, who was in the administration when the Iran War was launched, may find himself defending an unpopular war.
Another Republican, like Tucker Carlson or a similarly situated ally, could challenge Vance, in opposition to the war. Ted Cruz, of late, has teased that he could run for president in 2028.
More likely, if Vance advances to the general election, the Democratic candidate could use the Iran War against him as a key part of the messaging.
Then again, two years is a long time, and if there’s a pandemic or recession, the Iran War could become a small part of the 2028 campaign story.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
