In the now-famous 2016 Republican primary process, part of Donald Trump’s pitch to Republican voters was that he would avoid foreign policy mistakes like the Iraq War.
His opponents, he implied, would get the country into more wars like Iraq, and one of them, former Gov. Jeb Bush, was the brother of the president who had launched that war.
President Donald J. Trump speaks to the press during a presentation of the Religious Liberty Commission Report in the Oval Office, Friday, June 26, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
Whether Trump had really been so opposed to invading Iraq has been questioned by fact-checkers, as there were some quotes he gave at the time that sounded like he wasn’t so against the 2003 invasion.
But nevertheless, Trump’s insistence that he would keep America out of major, open-ended wars in the Middle East, and that his various opponents would launch such wars, was a recurring part of his political pitch in all of Trump’s presidential campaigns.
Trump, of course, has gone on to launch just such a Middle East war in his second term, one that has grown to be both open-ended and unpopular, and it may end up serving as an albatross around the neck of Trump’s successor as the Republican presidential standard-bearer.
Especially if it is his vice president, JD Vance.
Vance and Iran
No one knows how long the war in Iran will last, or how long its shadow will fall on the 2028 presidential race. However, the war appears likely to have an outcome that reflects positively on the Trump Administration and anyone who was in the room where its decisions were made.
The midterm elections are just over two months away, with the Iran War not expected to help Republicans’ standing.
And not long after that, the calendar will flip to 2027, with the presidential primary season right around the corner after that.
With Trump term-limited, JD Vance is likely to run for president in 2028. And while the president has not yet endorsed a successor and has been known to ask donors whether to support Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Washington Post reported in early August that Trump has more recently made it clear to donors they should back Vance. Rubio, of course, is also in the Administration during the war.
If there is a competitive Republican primary in 2028, the Iran War will likely be litigated as part of it, with some Republican candidate possibly trying to claim the antiwar lane.
And should he distance himself from the war during a primary contest, Vance would risk alienating Trump ultra-loyalists, and also, possibly, the Iran hawks in the Republican Party.
But even if that doesn’t happen, and Vance wins the nomination without much of a fight, he’ll likely find himself in a similar position in the general election as Kamala Harris did in the 2024 campaign, of wrestling with whether to distance himself from unpopular stances held by the administration that he had himself served as vice president.
The Face of the Deal
All the way back in March, shortly after the war started, the Washington Post reported that Vance was “in a bind, supporting a war that could cost him politically.” At that early date, Vance’s allies told the newspaper that “ a mission involving the U.S. military only for a matter of weeks won’t stay in voters’ memories,” but things clearly haven’t shaken out that way.
The Post noted that Vance, like Trump, was vocally critical of American foreign military adventures, at least before he came into office and was part of one.
After that, in June, Vance was seen as the “face” of the Memorandum of Understanding deal that delivered a ceasefire, with some on the more hawkish side of the Republican Party blaming him for not delivering a better deal.
Trump even joked at the time that he might blame Vance if the deal collapsed, as it ultimately did.
“It will be hard for him to sell this interim deal to a party that is divided between anti-interventionist MAGA supporters who opposed the war from the start, and conservative Iran hawks who believe the White House has ultimately capitulated to Tehran,” the BBC reported in June.
And if the war continues for much longer, Vance may find himself in that familiar position, all the way through the 2028 vote.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
