The United States claims to have heavily countered Iran’s influence in the Strait of Hormuz after months of fighting.
“That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don’t want us to go back at them. That’s the whole ball game,” U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Thursday.
A U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft assigned to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 14 participates in an air power demonstration near the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) April 24, 2013, in the Pacific Ocean. The John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group was returning from an eight-month deployment to the U.S. 5th Fleet and U.S. 7th Fleet areas of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Ignacio D. Perez/Released)
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs aerial maneuvers during the Wings Over Houston Airshow Oct. 18, 2019, in Houston, Texas. The show featured performances from the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds, Tora, Tora, Tora, and Oracle. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
The busy waterway handled some one-fifth of global oil flows before the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28. Since then, Iranian attacks on vessels and naval mines have dramatically reduced commercial traffic figures. In April, Brent crude rose above $120 a barrel.
‘Momentum is Building’
There have been various reports in recent weeks of the U.S. working to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian cooperation.
Axios outlined how the operation included a fortnight-long U.S. bombing campaign targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) terror group’s capabilities.
A U.S. military task force is reportedly coordinating empty tankers to enter the Gulf via the Arabian Sea under cover of night.
They then load up on oil at points in the Gulf before exiting close to the Omani coast. U.S. Navy divers have also led a mine-clearing operation.
American officials told Axios that more than 200 mine-like objects were cleared from the main shipping lane. Just 11 were determined to be actual mines, with only a few of those properly deployed.
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said internationally recognized shipping routes were now free of Iranian mines and declared: “Today, international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building.”
CENTCOM claims U.S. forces have facilitated the transit of almost 1,500 commercial vessels across the strait in recent months, enabling some 750 million barrels of crude oil to be transported.
Just seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15. Ships turning off their transponders means these recorded figures are unlikely to be representative of the actual amount of traffic.
Up to 30 Tankers Moving Under Cover of Darkness
But how open is the strait in reality?
U.S. officials told Axios that traffic through the protected southern channel has recently reached 20 to 30 tankers per night, moving an estimated 9 million to 10 million barrels. Oil experts and tanker trackers cited by the outlet have questioned whether flows are really that high.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, estimates total Gulf exports of crude and petroleum products have recovered to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, around two-thirds of pre-war levels and well above the March trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.
“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers” indicates exporters are adapting to the conflict, Goldman said.
Reuters cited ING analysts reaching a similar conclusion, saying producers are becoming “increasingly comfortable navigating the strait,” and oil prices are being contained somewhat as a result. Brent was trading around $89 a barrel Friday, down from more than $120 in April and on course for a weekly decline of more than 5%.
Diplomacy ‘Not Impossible’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday that “putting diplomacy back on track isn’t impossible” after talks with Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister in Tehran.
But he insisted that negotiations depend on Washington accepting that “pressure doesn’t work.”
Iran is separately discussing a temporary shipping corridor with Oman. Reuters reported that Tehran is drawing up conditions for a wider reopening, including an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions relief.
Trump, however, is signaling that Washington believes its stronger position in Hormuz leaves little reason to revive June’s “Memorandum of Understanding.”
“I don’t want to meet, they do,” Trump said Thursday, adding that Iran was “begging to make a deal.”
The Strait of Hormuz is clearly not properly open, but it is not fully blockaded either.
After Iran spent months using the world’s most important energy chokepoint as its strongest source of leverage, Washington is betting on Iran’s advantages in the region declining.
Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.”
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
