Trump Has an Imperfect Way Out of the Iran War – The Iran war returned to active military conflict again this week, with the United States launching a new barrage of strikes against Iranian military targets and Tehran retaliating by hitting American positions throughout the Middle East. The return to active war followed attacks on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz and ended a month-long period of relative calm, in which U.S. strikes had largely stopped. And for President Trump, the timing couldn’t be worse. Six months into the conflict, energy prices are climbing, diesel just reached a record high of $5.85 per gallon, and the November midterms are just a handful of months away.
Trump Needs a Deal
President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump work the rope line at the Congressional Picnic on the South Lawn, Tuesday, May 19, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald J. Trump tours the Hall of Prayer of Good Harvest with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China, Thursday, May 14, 2026, at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
The fighting has consumed tens of billions of dollars and hurt America’s readiness for a potential conflict with much larger powers.
It has depleted U.S. weapons inventories and tied down American military resources that were needed elsewhere.
Trump wants out, and while he may not have an ideal option to do so, there are arguments being made that it’s time for him to end the war anyway.
An Off-Ramp?
If President Trump could end the war in a way that he can reasonably describe or defend as a victory, he would. And he may be preparing to, according to recent reporting.
But so far, the situation doesn’t lend itself to that possibility. Iran has not surrendered and the regime has only become more hardline and resistant to negotiations, insisting that the United States make a series of incredible concessions that would effectively allow the country to rebuild the nuclear program President Trump set out to stop. Trump’s claims about the Strait of Hormuz being open are objectively untrue, given ongoing disruption in the strait and the global fuel shortage. Iran’s control over the strait is being periodically reduced by U.S. strikes, but the disruption remains.
Diplomacy has also repeatedly failed. The June memorandum of understanding (MOU) ceasefire deal was intended to end the fighting and provide a 60-day window for negotiations to establish a long-term peace deal, but the arrangement collapsed quickly, and the U.S. and Iran returned to fighting. More recently, Iran complicated another possible exit strategy by demanding compensation for war damage and the removal of American forces from the region and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. In August, the president was reportedly preparing to declare victory if Iran fully opened the Strait of Hormuz and had privately considered ending the war even without securing a nuclear agreement. But Tehran’s demands made that difficult.
Trump Is Considering Declaring Victory Again
New reports suggest that the president may once again be considering declaring victory, and this time it might be easier: he may simply declare the war finished regardless of what Tehran says or does.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has discussed with senior aides whether to declare the Iran war over and that he favors the idea. Trump has reportedly told aides privately that he believes the United States can stop sustained military operations while he continues to squeeze Tehran economically — and eventually, the president believes, he can force Iran either to dismantle its nuclear program in the face of economic collapse.
That strategy is beginning to play out now, with the administration launching Operation Economic Outcast last week as Iran struggles to get its oil into the international market. Iran and its trade allies are now facing some of the most intense sanctions in history, and the economic damage is going to keep piling on the regime. The question now, though, is whether the hardliners in Tehran care more about the economic damage than about defeating the United States in some way.
Should Trump Just Take the Win
Declaring victory and walking away is far from ideal for the president, but Trump may have just about enough to declare some form of victory. U.S. strikes have severely damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, and the country has been economically squeezed.
The administration is already touting the destruction of its conventional military as a victory, too. So we see the formula.
Washington could now stop the sustained attacks and warn Tehran that any attempt to rebuild its nuclear program could trigger new strikes — though the president should also fully expect that the strikes would continue. Iran has shown it will not stop.
In terms of the nuclear program, Trump could declare victory having already set the program back by years.
That being said, Iran could well seek support from larger countries that refuse to abide by the United States’ economic demands. China, for example. But if the alternative is continuing the conflict, Trump may have no other choice. Avoiding further war now would protect the U.S. stockpile of ATACMS and Patriots, allow a withdrawal while maintaining the blockade, and leave room to hope for the best.
And it might just work — at least until November.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
