Russia is planning to increase its military spending in the coming years, according to budget documents obtained by several media outlets, which indicate that the Kremlin is likely planning to remain at war with Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Bloomberg News reported that Putin plans “record war spending,” including reversing earlier plans to “pull back” on military spending. This is all despite well-publicized strains in Russia’s economy.
T-14 Armata Tank from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
T-14 Armata Tank Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Reuters, in a separate report earlier in the week that cited government documents, reported that Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defense in 2027, up from the originally budgeted 13.5 trillion roubles and the most it has spent in a year since the start of the war in 2022. Russia, Reuters added, plans to spend 50 trillion roubles on its military in the next three years.
Budget Priorities
On Friday, according to the New York Times, the Kremlin released a draft budget document showing it will increase military spending while also raising taxes and cutting social programs. The Times also reported that Russia will spend the equivalent of $200 billion, making up a third of the country’s federal spending next year, while cutting education funding by 6 percent and health care spending by 7 percent.
The Times noted that with Russia and Ukraine both acting during the war to “cripple each other’s economies,” both countries are finding it increasingly difficult to pay for the costs of war.
Putin Speaks
The draft budget release coincided with Putin’s address to the Russian parliament this week, following a recent election in which Putin’s party gained seats, although the results have been described as less than entirely legitimate.
Putin, per the Times, “exuded confidence” in the address, noting that while Ukraine has been “begging for handouts with an outstretched hand” to its Western allies, Russia does not have the option of doing so. The Russian leader also said his country’s “financial system and economy are performing well.”
However, the newspaper noted that the actual numbers are not quite as positive as Putin claims.
Under the draft budget, Russia’s budget deficit is expected to grow to $60 billion in 2027, as Western sanctions have forced Russia to borrow domestically. Russia’s debt-servicing costs are also expected to more than double from their pre-war level, with Russia expected to spend more on debt service next year than on “health care, education and housing combined,” the Times said.
Russia also plans to raise taxes.
Per the Times, the Kremlin had already announced it would raise value-added taxes and levies on small businesses, and will now raise taxes on interest on bank deposits, dividends, and asset sales. It also proposed a new windfall tax on mining companies.
Mobilization Coming?
In recent months, speculation has circulated that Russia may be planning a “mobilization”—essentially, a draft—ahead of winter.
According to the Kyiv Independent, which cited Russian state media, Putin has signed a decree authorizing an increase in Russian military personnel to just under 2.5 million, including 1.5 million who are “active.” This aligns with reports of a major increase in Russian military spending.
Ukraine, per that report, has said Russia plans to mobilize about 300,000 personnel each in 2026 and 2027, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that mobilization may have already begun. Speculation suggested Russia would wait to mobilize until after its parliamentary elections, which took place last week.
Russia’s last mobilization came in 2022, a few months after the launch of its war in Ukraine.
“They’ll lose all 300,000 of these newly mobilized Russians there,” Zelensky said in August, referring to the idea that Russia would send that many soldiers to attempt to finish occupying the Donetsk region by the end of the year.
However, as the Institute for the Study of War has pointed out, Russia has missed 15 deadlines to capture that region by a certain date.
“We’ll wipe them out,” the Ukrainian leader added.
Putin said this week, in a speech before the Valdai Discussion Club, that Russia would “liberate” the Donbas region of Ukraine “much sooner than in 1.5–2 years,” RBC Ukraine reported.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
