Is Trump Preparing to Strike Iran Again? – U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a fresh military offensive against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections — a departure from his former strategy of “low-keying it” with Iran until after the American people choose the makeup of the next Congress. The Pentagon is said to be preparing options for potentially massive strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities. The possibility of renewed fighting comes as the White House scrambles to bring down energy prices and convince the American public that the war was the right decision.
According to Axios, the Pentagon recently instructed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete preparations for renewed major combat operations against Iran. The directive did not, however, establish a date for the strikes, and the president has not yet made a final decision.
A B-2 Spirit makes a low pass flyover as part of the Warriors over the Wasatch airshow at Hill Air Force Base June 29, 2024. The 2024 Warriors over the Wasatch airshow was centered around the “Breaking Barriers Together” theme, celebrating one community. The B-2 Spirit, the predecessor to the new B-21 Raider, has been the U.S. Air Force’s premiere stealth bomber for more than 20 years. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jack Rodgers)
A 2nd Air Refueling Squadron KC-10 Extender from Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J., prepares to refuel a B-2 Spirit, during a training exercise near Kansas, Nov. 10, 2016. The KC-10 Extender is an Air Mobility Command advanced tanker and cargo aircraft designed to provide increased global mobility for U.S. armed forces. Although the KC-l0’s primary mission is aerial refueling, it can combine the tasks of a tanker and cargo aircraft by refueling fighters and simultaneously carry the fighter support personnel and equipment on overseas deployments. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Keith James/Released)
The preparations come as Washington and Jerusalem discuss the conflict, with both countries reportedly considering whether an operation before their respective elections would have a positive political effect.
But the plan faces a major problem: attacking Iran could drive energy prices even higher and risk major Iranian retaliation against neighboring countries’ energy infrastructure.
Pentagon Prepares for New Iran Strike
Reports of new preparations for combat operations come after a meeting of the president’s national security team at Camp David, Maryland, on Friday, October 2. During the meeting, senior officials are understood to have discussed the conflict with Iran and the ongoing threat posed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
NBC News reported on October 7 that military planners then developed new options for the president, including operations that could start within weeks. The report cited an unnamed U.S. official and another source familiar with the discussion. Then, Axios reported that the preparations include the possibility of extensive bombing of Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure, as well as its nuclear sites. The proposed campaign would also be extremely large in scale, representing a significant escalation rather than another round of limited exchanges.
Importantly, these discussions do not necessarily mean an attack is inevitable; senior officials are reportedly still debating the campaign’s timing and scope, and whether it will occur before the midterms at all.
Will Trump Do It?
Speaking Wednesday, October 7, the president said special envoy Steve Witkoff is “doing very well” in the ongoing negotiations with Iran, but suggested a deal with Iran may no longer be on the cards and that he doesn’t want to make one.
“He’s working on the Iran deal and doing very well,” he said. “I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop.”
Trump made the comments during a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, in which he again promised that Iran would “never have a nuclear weapon.”
The president’s claim that Iran would offer the U.S. anything to stop is incorrect, however, with Iranian officials reportedly still refusing to accept even Vice President JD Vance’s recently moderated offer to significantly limit uranium enrichment rather than ending it entirely.
Trump and Netanyahu Discuss Iran
The potential new military campaign appears likely to occur, with President Trump having repeatedly insisted that he expects to see new bombing after the November elections — but now, Israel and the United States are considering the possibility of launching the strikes ahead of their respective elections in the hopes of denying Tehran the ability to influence the results.
It is already well established that Iran appears to be holding out until American voters turn out and decide whether President Trump’s party maintains control of Congress.
According to Axios, President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, October 7 — their second conversation in days after a prolonged period of limited direct communication.
Netanyahu also met with his national security team, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with the Israeli prime minister on Monday, October 5. Israeli officials told Axios that any renewed offensive would likely involve both Israeli and U.S. forces this time, with one Israeli official suggesting that the chances of an attack before the elections are still low.
Will It Help the Republicans?
The timing is interesting because the war has become a serious political problem for the Republican Party. On October 7, The Atlantic reported that the president’s allies believe a limited strike before election day would let the president show strength to the American public and claim progress toward ending the war.
The logic is that renewed military pressure could force Tehran to make concessions and potentially improve market confidence, thereby reducing gasoline prices in the short term.
But with diesel and gasoline prices so elevated now, the chances of them falling significantly are low.
Unless the new strikes can improve refining capacity in the Middle East, end the Houthi threat in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and stop Iran from bombing regional refineries, the chance of another strike solving the global oil crisis is effectively zero.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
