Only 26 days remain until the midterm elections on November 3. The situation in Iran looms large over the entire election.
The White House wants everyone to believe the president controls the clock. A White House official told The Hill that “the president holds options.”
A-10 Warthog. National Security Journal Photo Taken on 9/26/2026.
“The Commander-in-Chief has all options available at any time.
The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing,” the official said.
The administration has often repeated this mantra since earlier this spring, when the White House posted a photo of Trump holding Uno cards with the caption “I have all the cards.”
However, some pushback has been reported on that, even inside the White House. Back in May, one senior administration official warned that Tehran knows “they can Carter him,” referencing the hostage crisis that sank Jimmy Carter’s presidency in 1980.
Another source close to the White House told Politico in March that, despite the U.S. having decimated Iran’s defenses, the Iranians now held the cards.
Where The Conflict Actually Stands
The current conflict began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and about 40 senior members of his government.
Since then, the two sides agreed to a ceasefire, which Iran promptly broke by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, renewing fighting in July, and saw the US shifting toward economic strangulation of the regime. Economic sanctions and a naval blockade of Iran’s ports have decimated the economy.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor assigned to the 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, deployed to Kadena Air Base, takes off during readiness exercise BB26-1 at Kadena Air Base, Japan, Aug. 3, 2026. Exercises and operations incorporating agile combat employment concepts ensure forward-deployed forces in the Indo-Pacific are ready to protect and defend the United States, allied and partner interests at a moment’s notice. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Violette Hosack) 18 WG/PA
Trump said Iran was trying to influence the election during the July escalation. But then he added, “they won’t have any impact on me.”
Trump ordered fresh airstrikes on the IRGC on September 1, the first significant military action since late July, and said, “I’m not affected by the election. No. 1, I’m not running, but my party’s running, and I’m going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Iran responded on September 9 with a missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts American forces.
Over five days ending last weekend, Iranian media claims the IRGC Navy targeted and hit seven tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, oil prices have jumped about 5 percent in light of these recent attacks, and West Texas Crude is currently selling at about $92 a barrel.
In an interview with TIME, the president said heavier bombing after the midterms is “possible” and confirmed he’d rejected an Iranian offer to reopen Hormuz because he wants a broader deal. A day earlier, he framed the choice as making a deal or “blow them up.”
The Case For Waiting Until November 4
So why isn’t the administration possibly hitting them now?
The easy answer is the election mentioned above.
Republicans hold a slim 219-215 House majority and a 53-47 Senate majority.
However, oil spiked to over $100 a barrel in September for the first time since July, and Democrats are using affordability as a main election talking point.
Trump has said the war will end “immediately” after the midterm election, arguing that Tehran is stalling to see if Washington changes hands.
The situation elsewhere in the Gulf is also worth considering. Marc Thiessen has pointed out that one reason Trump is hesitant to resume major combat is the fear that Iran’s ballistic missiles hit Saudi and Qatari energy facilities in response.
A strike that knocks Gulf oil offline three weeks before an election would be a gift to Democrats as energy prices would jump quickly.
The Case For Hitting Them First
However, both the US and Iran can strike first…and hardest.
Some analysts believe that Iran’s best window to strike back is two or three weeks before Election Day. We are nearing that right now.
However, the same is also true for the US. Modern Diplomacy analysis in August predicted a U.S.-Israeli preemptive strike in early October, specifically to stop an Iranian October surprise attack.
Thiessen made a similar argument: a decisive blow now lets Trump fight on American terms and declare victory before voters head to the polls.
Mission planning that assumes the enemy sits still is a fantasy, as anyone with experience will say. If the IRGC kills Americans at a base in Jordan or launches more missiles at a US Navy ship, all bets are off. Trump will retaliate, and hard.
He’s already threatened Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried tunnel complex near the Natanz enrichment site.
The Honest Trade-Off
The White House knows that the “all the cards” line only matters if you’re willing to play them, and when you play them is the whole game.
The feeling here is that other than a major Iranian provocation, Trump will not launch a large new bombing campaign before November 3.
Expect more of what we’ve seen since September: targeted hits on IRGC boats, mine-laying assets and missile sites near the strait, sold as enforcing the blockade.
Those are simply more of the same airstrikes.
That isn’t an escalation, though Democrats will likely frame it as such.
However, a major Iranian escalation would change the narrative considerably. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told commanders at Quantico last week that Iran’s navy, air force, and air defenses have been destroyed.
That is true; however, the regime still has considerable assets to use: its ballistic missiles and drones that can be launched at US bases, and Gulf allies and partners.
So will Trump order new airstrikes on Iran before the midterms? Probably not. Tehran, however, with an economy on the brink of collapse, could risk further escalation, feeling it has little to lose.
Twenty-six days.
And they won’t be quiet ones.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
