Polls have shown Republicans with a fairly sizeable disadvantage to Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for weeks.
Still, four pollsters who spoke to POLITICO have described what they believe is a likely, devastating defeat for Republicans on November 3.
President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attend a ceremony at the Pentagon in observance of the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks, Friday, September 11, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
President Donald J. Trump participates in a courtesy call with Taoiseach Michael Martin at Farmleigh House, the official Irish state guest house, Saturday, September 12, 2026, in Dublin. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
In a report published Wednesday, October 21, POLITICO spoke with four polling experts to assess whether the latest data is accurate and whether Republicans have any realistic chance of avoiding major losses amid a highly unpopular war and the rising cost of living.
The report also comes as national surveys show President Donald Trump’s approval rating falling to historic lows – both generally and specifically among Hispanic voters who previously backed him in states like Texas.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 19 shows the Democrats leading Republicans by 12 percentage points nationally, while the president’s approval rating has dropped to just 31% – the lowest of either of his terms.
What POLITICO’s Pollsters Found
The POLITICO report brought together Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll; Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research; Charlotte Swasey, director of analytics at Searchlight Institute; and Seb Wride, head of polling at PF Global.
The four experts all acknowledged that election polling has historically produced some misleading results, particularly in elections involving President Trump.
However, they also agreed that polling methods have improved in recent years to account for the dynamics the U.S. has seen since the 2016 presidential election.
They also said that the consistency of this year’s polling paints a pretty depressing picture for the Republicans.
Swasey described the scale of the challenge for the GOP, noting: “It’s entirely possible that the polls are a little bit wrong. But they would have to be so dramatically wrong for Mike Johnson to have a good year, that it would be practically unprecedented,” Swasey said, referring to the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives.
“We’re not pulling these polls completely out of a hat. We have historical records of how the president’s party does in a midterm year. If you look at that alone — and you don’t even look at the polls — the party of the president loses seats, unless Sept. 11 has just happened.”
Franklin, meanwhile, argued that results from polling organizations that lean both Democrat and Republican have been largely consistent, making it difficult to dismiss the reported national advantage the Democratic Party currently has.
“We’ve done a lot over this past decade to try to improve the control we have over those kinds of errors, but ultimately we can’t force people to do polls, and so this remains always a background fear factor,” he said, referencing the failure of polls dating back to the first Trump campaign.
“But I think when you look at the consistency across polling, coming from more conservative polling firms or more Democratic firms, I’m more impressed with the broad consistency we’re seeing across companies and across states.”
Matthews noted that pollsters have gradually improved, performing better in both the 2018 and 2022 midterms than in recent presidential elections—though she also warned that some Republican voters are still difficult to reach.
Trump’s 2024 Coalition Falls Apart
Experts also seemed to agree that the coalition that helped President Trump win the 2024 presidential election is beginning to fall apart, and Republicans can’t count on it to turn out this time.
Franklin noted the declining Republican support among Hispanic voters and younger Americans — and even the white voters without college degrees who have historically backed Trump.
He described inflation and household finances as the main drivers of Republican-leaning voters abandoning the party this time around.
Wride agreed with the assessments, also identifying the war with Iran as a major factor in the president’s plummeting popularity.
Democrats Expand Their Lead
Polling has shown an upward trend for Democratic support in recent months.
An October 20 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that 59% of Americans would prefer Democrats take back control of Congress to check President Trump, compared with 35% who would prefer Republicans keep their majority.
The same survey also found that 75% of Americans described the economy negatively, and 49% said they were financially worse off since Trump returned to Washington.
Democrats also held an eight-point lead among likely voters in congressional races.
An analysis by Silver Bulletin, updated on October 22, also showed Democrats leading nationally by 9.2 percentage points, their strongest lead of this election cycle so far.
Can Republicans Avoid Defeat?
POLITICO’s four analysts stopped short of declaring the election completely over, noting that Republican voters are still sometimes underrepresented in surveys — but between health care costs, concerns about corruption, growing opposition to artificial intelligence, the rising cost of living, and the war in Iran, they all predicted that Republicans appear to be on track for a major defeat this November.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
