President Donald Trump enters the 2026 midterm elections with substantially weaker public support than when he returned to the White House, as economic dissatisfaction, the Iran war, and declining confidence among his own voters weigh on Republicans.
Reuters/Ipsos measured his approval at 47% immediately after his January 2025 inauguration. Its October 26, 2026, survey put him at 32%, following a record low of 31% the previous week.
Donald Trump Speaking at CPAC. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Donald Trump in 2021. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Other surveys show a similar deterioration.
Pew Research Center recorded approval falling from 47% in early February 2025 to 30% in a survey conducted September 28–October 4, 2026.
Signs of Deterioration
Trump began his second presidency with strong Republican backing but limited support across the political divide.
The initial Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 91% of Republicans approved of his performance, with independents almost evenly divided.
By April 2025, Reuters/Ipsos measured approval at 42%.
Its polling identified concern about the economy, tariffs, and the president’s use of executive authority.
The decline was uneven rather than continuous.
Pew’s readings moved between 38% and 41% during the middle months of 2025 before falling further in 2026.
Economics and Elections
Economic expectations became a persistent vulnerability for a president who had campaigned on reducing living costs.
A September AP-NORC survey found that 65% of adults attributed higher-than-usual prices primarily to his policies rather than circumstances beyond his control, and 69% believed his handling of the cost of living was worse than expected.
Inflation has also backed the arguments of Trump’s economic doubters.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, with gasoline up 9.1% that month alone.
The Iran war has compounded those concerns by disrupting energy markets.
The same AP-NORC survey in September found that 71% disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran and 69% believed the war had not been worth fighting.
PRRI’s autumn survey separately found economic approval at 31%, down from 39% the previous year. Among Republicans, approval of his economic management fell from 81% to 68%.
The voters who Trump won over in 2024 still face the same economic concerns two years on. Factor in those who already opposed the president, and a clear majority of disapproval soon appears.
Softening Support
Pew’s October report identified a substantial decline among people who voted for Trump in 2024.
Approval among 2024 Trump voters fell from 95% in the early stages of his second term to 83% just under 12 months later.
It’s now down to 67%, with pronounced declines among his younger and Hispanic supporters.
Not every dissatisfied Trump voter will be backing a Democrat in the midterm elections.
Job approval, party loyalty, and congressional vote choice are different measures.
A voter may not approve of Trump, but if they feel the grass is not greener on the Democratic side, they may choose to vote for a third party, if they even cast their ballot at all.
Preventing your own voters from supporting your opposition is one task; preventing independents from doing the same is another.
Trump has placed himself front and center of the campaign, regularly telling supporters to “pretend” he is on the ballot to ensure GOP voters turn out on election day.
It’s a bold strategy, and one that could backfire.
Despite control of the White House not being in play, 44% of likely voters in an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released last Tuesday say their vote will be cast as a ballot against President Trump.
Independents were substantially more likely to describe their vote as opposition to Trump (44%) than support for him (12%).
A Pivotal Election
The electoral consequences of Trump’s declining popularity remain uncertain until the very last vote is counted.
Nevertheless, the Democratic Party has led the polls throughout the electoral cycle. Nate Silver’s generic congressional ballot average has kept the party ahead by about nine percentage points in the two weeks leading up to the election.
That advantage favors Democrats nationally, although polling error and the distribution of votes across individual races leave congressional control uncertain.
Trump retains substantial backing within his party and a core of committed supporters.
But the polling across his second term shows a narrower coalition, diminished economic credibility and growing resistance to his administration.
Today’s election will test how much of that erosion becomes a loss of Republican power.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
