President Donald Trump’s hopes of averting a major crisis for the Republican Party in this year’s midterm elections appear to have been dashed, with the final New York Times/Siena University polls showing Democratic Senate candidates leading Republicans in several crucial battleground states.
The polling data suggests that Republicans will have an extremely hard time holding on to control of Congress on Tuesday, despite President Trump spending much of October campaigning across the country to energize the Republican base.
Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2022 Student Action Summit at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. By Gage Skidmore.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 450th mile of the new border wall Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, near the Texas Mexico border. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
The new polls, released on Sunday, November 1, put the Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan.
Those results are particularly significant for Republicans in Texas and Kansas, two traditionally Republican states that have not elected Democratic senators in several decades.
The findings also come as the Republicans attempt to defend a 53-47 Senate majority.
The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber, but several of the contests are still statistically close, suggesting the GOP’s best hope on Tuesday may be narrowly holding on to the Senate.
Polls suggest the House may already be lost to the Democrats.
Dems Lead Republicans in Seven States
According to the final New York Times/Siena polls, Democrats lead by as little as one percentage point in Iowa and as much as 11 points in Michigan.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by a sizable margin — 50% to 43%.
It’s a particularly worrying result for Republicans given that the last time the state elected a Democrat senator was in 1988. In Kansas, a state that has long been largely Republican, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
The state has not elected a single Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
Those numbers alone sound like a bloodbath, but it gets worse.
Democrats hold a five-point lead in Ohio, with former Senator Sherrod Brown polling at 49% against Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 44%.
The rest of the races are closer, but still bad news.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%.
Iowa Democrat Josh Turek is leading Republican Ashley Hinson by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%.
Don Levy, the executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said that the results suggest Democrats are likely to take control of the Senate.
He did, however, warn that several races are still within the survey’s margin of error.
“While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,” Levy explained.
Trump Campaigns In Iowa and Kansas
Even as he attempts to wind down a hugely unpopular war, President Donald Trump has spent weeks campaigning in states that the Republicans should have already had in the bag.
President Trump spent Sunday, November 1, campaigning in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas.
During campaign speeches, he urged voters to turn out and elect Republican candidates who would continue to support his administration’s agenda.
It follows a busy October schedule during which President Trump has held more than two dozen rallies across 19 states, prompting him to lose his voice on several occasions and attracting media scrutiny over both his priorities and his health.
Both of the president’s most recent stops were particularly important, with Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson running to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst, and Kansas Republican Roger Marshall attempting to secure another six-year term in the Senate.
President Trump has spent so much time campaigning in states that have previously supported him reflects the White House’s calculation that winning over independent voters may be particularly difficult at a time when voters are telling pollsters that the economy and the Iran War are likely to keep them from voting Republican this time.
Democrats, however, are winning over voters from multiple groups that are out of the Republicans’ grasp this time around.
Republicans Could Hold the Senate
Despite the worrying numbers, the Republicans do still have a chance to retain at least one chamber of Congress — the Senate.
Several races, as Don Levy noted, are within the polls’ margin of error, and Republican candidates have historically performed better than expected on election day.
But the problem for Trump is what happens if the Democrats take control of either of the chambers, with a Democratic majority in the House making it considerably harder for the president to pass his agenda through legislation.
It would also expose him to greater scrutiny and potentially even investigations.
With just one day to go, Trump’s hopes now depend on Republican voters turning out in numbers the pollsters aren’t expecting.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
