Key Points – President Trump’s criticisms have fueled concerns about a US withdrawal from NATO. While Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty allows a member to legally leave with one year’s notice, such a move by the US would require Congressional or Senate approval, making a unilateral presidential exit politically difficult.
-A US departure would be devastating for European allies, who depend on America for nearly 16% of NATO’s military budget and critical capabilities like nuclear deterrence, advanced ISR, and strategic airlift.
-This would severely undermine NATO’s ability to deter Russia, embolden global adversaries like Russia and China, and significantly damage US international standing.
NATO: Would Trump Quit?
Relations between the United States and its allies in NATO have become shaky ever since President Donald Trump was elected to office. Earlier this year, reports suggested that Trump was planning to pull the US out of NATO or substantially reduce America’s participation in the alliance.
The US exiting NATO would have harsh consequences, not just for Europe but for the rest of the world, and it would embolden US enemies around the world.
Can the US Actually Leave NATO?
Legally, the process of leaving NATO is relatively straightforward. Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty allows any member to withdraw one year after giving formal notice. Since the United States is the treaty’s depository, it would essentially notify itself and then inform the other members. However, while the legal mechanism is simple, the political and diplomatic implications would be anything but.
In practice, leaving NATO is not likely to happen anytime soon. For the US to leave the alliance, the President must gain approval from the Senate or an Act from Congress. However much Trump may berate Europe and NATO, the President cannot simply withdraw the US completely without congressional approval. Much of Congress still views America’s commitment to Europe as a strategic imperative. Unless this changes in the near future, it is unlikely that America will be going anywhere anytime soon.
Why NATO Needs America
If Trump were to pull out of NATO, it would be a disaster for America’s European allies. The United States contributes nearly 16% of NATO’s military budget and provides essential assets such as nuclear deterrence, advanced intelligence and surveillance systems, strategic airlift capabilities, and cyber defense infrastructure. These contributions are not easily replaced. Without them, NATO’s ability to deter adversaries, particularly Russia, would significantly weaken.
The credibility of Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause, would also be questioned. This clause, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, has only been invoked once, following the September 11 attacks. Without the backing of the US, smaller member states, especially those near Russia’s borders, might feel increasingly vulnerable and uncertain about the alliance’s ability to protect them.
Without the US, Europe would be left alone for national security. While countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom possess capable militaries, they would need to invest heavily in defense if they hope to fill the void left by the US. France and the UK, as nuclear powers, would have to expand their capabilities to fill the void left by the US. However, this would require not only financial investment but also a significant shift in political will and coordination among European nations, will and coordination that Europe simply does not have at the moment.
The absence of the United States could also accelerate efforts to build a more autonomous European defense framework. The European Union’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) might gain new momentum, with member states seeking to create a unified military force capable of defending the continent independently. Yet, this path is fraught with challenges. European countries have long struggled with sovereignty, interoperability, and differing strategic cultures. Building a cohesive and effective defense union would require time and talented leadership.
A Huge Victory for Russia and China
A US withdrawal from NATO would be a Godsend to Europe’s enemies, especially Russia. Russia might see an opportunity to exert greater influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, testing the resolve of a weakened NATO.
Observing a perceived retreat of American global leadership, China could accelerate its ambitions in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The departure could also prompt a realignment of international alliances. Countries currently relying on US security guarantees—such as Japan, South Korea, and Israel—might reconsider their strategic options. Some could pursue independent nuclear capabilities or seek new security arrangements with other powers.
Leaving NATO is a Bad Idea
Economically, the US defense industry could suffer from reduced demand in Europe. NATO’s emphasis on interoperability and joint procurement has historically benefited American defense contractors. A diminished NATO role could lead European countries to prioritize domestic or intra-European defense industries instead. Domestically, the political fallout in the United States would be substantial. While some political factions advocate for a more isolationist foreign policy, others view NATO as essential to maintaining global stability and American influence. A decision to leave the alliance would likely deepen partisan divides and spark intense debate about the future of US foreign policy.
Beyond tangible military and economic effects, the US would also lose soft power, prestige, and credibility. NATO is more than a military alliance; it symbolizes Western unity and shared democratic values. The US exit would damage its credibility as a global leader and reduce its influence in international institutions. It would also send a troubling signal to allies and partners worldwide about the reliability of American commitments.
As for NATO itself, the alliance would face a critical juncture. It could attempt to survive and adapt without the United States, redefining its strategic concept and strengthening intra-European military cooperation. There are two possible scenarios for NATO without the US.
First, the alliance might become more cohesive, as European members would be forced to take greater responsibility for their security. Alternatively, the coalition could fragment, with some members seeking bilateral security arrangements or adopting neutral stances. Such an outcome would weaken collective defense and leave swaths of Europe at the mercy of Russia.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
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