South China Sea: Where World War III Could Begin

Key Points – Rising tensions in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines over disputed territories like the Spratly Islands significantly increase the risk of armed conflict.

-China’s “grey zone operations,” including a May 22nd incident where its coast guard used water cannons against a Philippine vessel, and threats to arrest Filipino sailors, escalate the danger of miscalculation. Such an incident could trigger the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty, potentially drawing the United States into a wider conflict.

-While both the US and Chinese navies are conducting shows of force with aircraft carriers, the Trump administration’s specific strategy for the region is still developing.

Could There Be World War III in the South China Sea?

Even the most casual military observer is aware of China’s desire to re-unify with Taiwan, and this could happen by the use of force. China believes that Taiwan is its own sovereign property and that Taipei is the capital of a wayward and renegade province.

But left in the background, there is another problem. The Chinese are causing mischief with the Philippines in the South China Sea over territorial claims in that region. These tensions could always spark a war that could bring the United States into a required military support situation since there is a mutual U.S.-Philippines defense agreement.

To intimidate and coerce, China is sending naval forces into disputed waters near the Philippines. In 2024, there was an instance when Chinese sailors rammed and boarded a Philippines naval vessel. This was considered an unacceptable act of aggression by the government of the Philippines.

Heading for Disaster

One problem with these provocations is not just the illegal act but also the threat of an escalation due to an accident or miscalculation in the waters. China could easily fire a missile that would sink a Philippine warship by mistake. This could send Manila into a tizzy and perhaps see ships from the U.S. Navy steaming to rescue the Philippines in a broader fight with China.

What Is Sparking These Actions?

Why is China so aggressive in this area of operations? It disagrees with the Philippines over the rightful owner of some rocks, reefs, and shoals in the Spratly Islands. This location has ample oil and natural gas, plus fishing resources. China thinks the islands belong to it due to its overall claim of ownership of the First Island Chain – an assertion that many countries in the South China Sea dispute.

This has been especially worrisome lately as China conducts maritime “grey zone operations” – actions short of war but more dangerous than peaceful activity. These incidents happen almost weekly. For example, a Chinese vessel confronted a boat from the Philippines on May 22.

“The Philippines’ fisheries bureau said the lives of a civilian crew were put at risk when the Chinese Coast Guard fired water cannons and sideswiped a vessel as it conducted marine research around a disputed South China Sea reef, according to Reuters.

China claimed two adversarial ships illegally entered its possession near Subi Reef and Sandy Cay. Beijing thought it had the right to stop the alleged incursion by the Philippines.

The Path to World War III

China has also said it would arrest sailors from the Philippines if they keep conducting illegal activities. Some think tanks are worried about the two countries sparking World War Three since the United States could step in and forcefully prevent China from engaging in such dangerous activities.

“The odds of armed conflict in the South China Sea are high and rising,” Derek Grossman of the RAND Corporation said to Foreign Policy. China’s hijinks have placed the “Philippines in an ever-tightening stranglehold that is increasingly compromising the latter’s sovereignty and territorial integrity at sea.”

The U.S. Navy Is Simply Keeping the Peace

The U.S. Navy has maintained that its ships are only in the region to keep sea lines of communication open and to administer a policy of freedom of navigation for all vessels from any country. China is not afraid that the United States could counter its aggressive Grey Zone activity in the South China Sea.

Diplomatically, this has been an oft-visited discussion between Beijing and Washington. Neither country wants to go to war over such a small ocean area near the Spratlys, but the two belligerents do not want to be seen as backing down.

Showdown Between Aircraft Carriers

Indeed, a strike group belonging to the USS Nimitz is currently patrolling in the southern part of the South China Sea about 310 miles west of Brunei. This shows the Pentagon is taking things seriously in the contested First Island Chain.

China has also demonstrated force. In April, the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong patrolled the Philippine Sea, with the strike group steaming around 200 nautical miles east of the upper tip of the Philippine main island of Luzon.

Both countries are prepared for the worst and likely have submarines in the theater, too. That’s why an accident or miscalculation between the Chinese coast guard and small ships from the Philippines could always end in death or injury that would threaten peace.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has yet to articulate a military strategy for the region. This will eventually culminate in an official document called the National Defense Strategy from the Pentagon, which is required by law.

The Under Secretary of Policy, Elbridge Colby, and his staff are working on this document, but these reports sometimes take a year or more to produce. Colby is a China hawk who believes the United States should emphasize deterrence in East Asia over U.S. commitments to Europe and the Middle East.

The National Defense Strategy will reveal clues about how the Navy and Air Force would react to a contingency in the South China Sea. But at this point, we do not know how the United States would respond to a shooting conflict between China and the Philippines. Until then, there will be aircraft carrier and submarine activity between the U.S. Navy and the People’s Liberation Army Navy in the South China Sea.

Let’s hope cooler heads prevail and that any confrontation resulting in the United States coming to help the Philippines would only be a short conflict that could be diffused by diplomacy between Washington and Beijing before it would escalate to a full-fledged war. Colby will have his work cut out for him and will have to figure out how the United States would respond to such a contingency to give American generals and admirals guidance on how to react to a Chinese kinetic attack on the Philippines. Until then, both countries will sail aircraft carriers and submarines in the region to show strength and naval might.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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