The Houthis of Yemen, a Shiite militia backed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, have implemented what might be a devastating long-term blockade of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The attacks show how the conflict is escalating and expanding in previously unexpected ways far beyond the Persian Gulf, raising regional security concerns that should concern policymakers and international relations professionals.
Iran’s Drones That Russia Is Using. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Saudi Oil Tankers Come Under Attack
The Houthis targeted the Saudi-flagged oil tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea. Houthi representatives claim the attack was merely an enforcement of a naval blockade against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis’ longtime regional foe.
On the flipside, Riyadh has confirmed that Encelia was struck. The Houthi attack on the tanker caused a fire to erupt in the vessel’s bow.
Officials claimed that the crew is safe and that emergency measures were taken to secure the ship and prevent real environmental damage. Riyadh has not confirmed the second Houthis strike on the Saudi-owned Layla.
Why the Bab el-Mandeb Matters
The incident with the Encelia occurred near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important strategic chokepoints.
This waterway connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It’s the southern gateway for vessels traveling to and from the Suez Canal, too.
Any sustained disruption there would force ships to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles, additional fuel costs, and significant delays to commercial shipping.
Iran Army Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Saudi Arabia has come to increasingly rely upon their Red Sea ports to export their oil in the wake of the SoH being closed down by the Iranians.
Rather than loading crude directly onto tankers in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia has been able to divert their essential energy flows toward the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb, and beyond.
The Houthis let the Saudis fall into this pattern. Now, they’re closing the trap.
Are the Houthis Acting on Their Own?
Dr. Andreas Krieg of King’s College expressed his belief that the Houthis were not, in fact, coordinating this move against Riyadh with Tehran, as many pundits have claimed.
Instead, he thinks that the Houthis are merely taking advantage of Iran’s distraction with their war with the United States (and Israel) to extract meaningful concessions from Saudi Arabia, a nation they’ve been in conflict with basically for the last decade.
But even Dr. Krieg conceded that, ultimately, the Iranian and Houthi moves on the SoH, Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and wider Red Sea region could soon merge into one, cohesive movement that further undermined the global economy.
Shipping Begins to Divert
The Houthis claim that ten commercial vessels have already turned back following the Yemen-based group’s announcement of the blockade.
Independent ship-tracking data confirmed that multiple tankers altered course in the Red Sea after the warning, although not all of the Houthis claims can be independently verified.
Reuters has reported that multiple Saudi oil tankers carrying crude destined for China and India have reversed course since the Houthi blockade was announced.
Global Energy Markets Face New Pressure
With the instability in the SoH and now the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea, some of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints are disrupted, which could threaten around seven percent of the world’s total oil and petroleum products, risking significant economic repercussions.
Financial markets freaked out.
Oil analysts are no longer believing that the disruptions to the energy markets resulting from the Iran War are merely transitory.
They are starting to price in the disruptions in ways that will ensure ordinary people are paying exorbitant prices for energy (and everything else).
The Risk of Wider Regional Escalation
What’s more, the attacks further increase the chance that the Saudis become directly involved in the conflict, highlighting the need for policymakers to monitor escalation risks closely.
International shippers, energy traders, and insurers all view the latest attacks as part of a larger movement toward escalation.
Commercial operators must now evaluate risks associated with both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea regions, potentially increasing insurance premiums, extending voyage times, and further straining global supply chains.
Whether the Houthi campaign develops into a sustained blockade remains uncertain.
And if Dr. Krieg’s claims about Houthi intentions with the blockade are correct, then there remains a chance that the escalation doesn’t last as long in the Red Sea region as the SoH blockade lasts.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
