In the aftermath of two American soldiers officially being declared killed, the Trump administration’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright informed the media that the US mission in Iran is no longer about destroying Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program or even regime change.
Instead, the American energy chief defined the US military’s mission as centered on ensuring the continued flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) to keep the world’s energy markets functioning.
Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2022 Student Action Summit at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida. By Gage Skidmore.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 450th mile of the new border wall Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, near the Texas Mexico border. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
It should be noted that the SoH was fully open to international traffic right up until the US and Israeli bombs began dropping on the Islamic Republic of Iran back on February 28.
Getting Ready for $250 Per Barrel?
Since that time, the SoH went from 140 ships per day passing through it to maybe, at the height of the short-lived Memorandum of Understanding (MoH) that lasted barely 18 days last month, 140 ships per week making it through.
Since the breakdown of the MoH, however, almost no ships have passed through. As a result, the price of oil has been steadily rising globally.
Fears abound that energy prices could reach anywhere between $150 and $250 per barrel by the Fall. And that’s because not only are ships not using the SoH, but oil refineries in the Middle East are also not operating as they did before the start of the war.
So, in terms of transportation and energy production, there is a massive decline that the world was not prepared to handle.
Wright wants the world to know that the United States military is willing to risk its own warships and other assets–and the lives of its personnel–to provide escort for any ship attempting to pass through the SoH at this time when Iran’s military is threatening any ship that tries to pass through it.
Too bad for the US that it isn’t up to the military to get these ships through. That’s because the US military isn’t responsible for paying for the ships, insuring the expensive (and environmentally damaging) cargo, and providing for the crews of those ships.
Private Sector Blues
Those responsibilities fall upon the shoulders of the private sector. Neither shipping companies nor their insurers will simply accept the increased risk that comes with pushing their expensive ships through the contested SoH.
Not when the Iranians have demonstrated a, frankly, remarkable capability to hit those ships–even when the US military was supposedly, in some cases, providing overwatch.
More importantly, the US military’s capacity to conduct such Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) has been drastically curbed by the persistent and accurate Iranian attacks on US military infrastructure throughout the region.
To compound matters, none of the other naval powers of the world want anything to do with such operations through the contested SoH.
So, even though the US military is willing to help push ships through the SoH, it still needs assistance from its allies. And none of its allies are willing to assist the Americans–despite the fact that the European states and multiple Asian countries require the energy to flow freely through the SoH for the sake of their own economies.
So, the US military cannot be everywhere all the time. Even when they are, as we’ve seen, they are vulnerable to attack.
What’s more, the mere fact that the US military might escort a ship or two through the SoH does not make the civilian ships immune from Iranian attack.
Since none of America’s allies appear willing to send their own (limited) navies to assist in the FONOP mission, and with the US military’s footprint in the region being systematically degraded by the Iranians, the law of diminishing returns sets in.
Meanwhile, all those shipping firms and their insurers are refusing to pass through the Strait–even if under armed escort by the US military. Indeed, most of the escort is not being done through the Strait by the Navy.
It’s being conducted by the US Army via its aviation component; the Navy is sending its aviation component to assist, along with whatever drones the US military has in the region.
Times Have Changed
Unlike the Tanker War of 1987, when the US Navy defied the Iranians and, with apparent ease, maintained the SoH’s viability for civilian traffic, today’s crisis is more complex. The Iranians have demonstrated a robust capability that outstrips the kind of capacity they had during the 1987 Tanker War.
All this means is that companies are unwilling to risk their crews, ships, and cargos.
Meanwhile, the Americans cannot possibly maintain security for the number of ships needed to pass through the Strait.
None of America’s allies will commit their own forces to facilitate the safe passage of ships through the SoH–even if that could help ameliorate the impending shortages and price hikes.
All of which combines to ensure that the global price of oil will spike significantly in the coming weeks.
You can tell that this is a primary concern, despite the fact that the Trump administration keeps acting like they’ve got this under control, because administration officials are now admitting that the war is no longer about Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. It is instead about who controls the SoH.
Trump’s Critics Pounce
Indeed, one of President Donald Trump’s biggest critics, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), has correctly framed this crisis as being a form of “mission creep.”
Essentially, the senior Democratic Party senator from Virginia believes that the US has drifted away from what was supposed to be a high-intensity, short-duration conflict that involved neutering Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities while potentially overthrowing the regime in a popular uprising, into a long-term commitment whose objectives have changed over time.
A Change of Mission
Energy Secretary Wright’s statements show how the administration has effectively abandoned every other strategic objective in favor of the baseline need to restore shipping to what it was in the SoH before the war commenced.
The only problem is that the Iranian regime refuses to allow for that restoration to occur under any circumstance.
And because of that, the US military’s commitment will increase all the while the likelihood of escalation increases, too.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
