Key Points – While the world focuses on the military possibility of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran, the United States may be unprepared for the diplomatic aftermath and opportunities that could follow.
-Historically, major conflicts like the 1991 Gulf War have created new diplomatic openings, such as the Madrid Peace Conference.
An Israeli air force F-15I Ra’am taxis down the runway during Blue Flag 2019 at Uvda Air Base, Israel, November 4, 2019. The U.S. and Israel have a strong and enduring military-to-military partnership built on trust and developed over decades of cooperation. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Kyle Cope)
-An Israeli strike that successfully delegitimizes or collapses the Iranian regime could be a similar game-changer, potentially dismantling Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
-However, this positive outcome is not guaranteed. Washington must be prepared to manage the fallout, prevent new state patrons from co-opting Iran’s proxies, and capitalize on any opportunity to integrate a post-theocratic Iran into new regional security and economic frameworks.
Is Washington Ready for the Diplomatic Aftermath of a Strike on Iran?
It increasingly looks like an Israeli strike on Iran may be imminent, a matter of days if not hours. While analysts have long debated both the wisdom and efficacy of military strikes to end Iran’s nuclear program, if not the regime, neither Democratic nor Republican administrations have focused on the diplomatic aftermath of such strikes.
War can be tremendously destructive. Diplomats rightly view it as the failure of diplomacy, yet in their efforts to avert war, too few diplomats acknowledge, let alone plan for, the opportunities war can open.
The 1814-1815 Congress of Vienna helped Europe create a new diplomatic order after years of chaos and conflict following the 1798 French Revolution and Napoleonic wars.
The 1919 Treaty of Versailles created the League of Nations and other international organizations such as the International Labour Office, shifted colonial borders, and established mandates across Africa, the Middle East, and Pacific that in turn hastened the fulfillment of national aspirations for long colonized peoples.
The 1945 Yalta Conference ensured the reestablishment of conquered nations, even as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s concessions to Joseph Stalin condemned millions of people in Eastern Europe to Communist tyranny.
The same pattern applies to the Middle East. The Arab-Israeli situation had been staid for decades when Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Only Egypt, among Arab states, recognized Israel. Other countries—Jordan, Morocco, and many of the oil-rich Arab states—enjoyed cordial if covert ties to the Jewish state.
The reactionary Arab camp, however, refused to budge from the 1967 Arab League Khartoum Declaration’s “three no’s”: no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel. Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestine Liberation Organization itself upheld those principles strictly, rejecting any normalization with Israel.
The U.S. military and a coalition of allies liberated Kuwait in just over 100 hours. The ease and decisiveness with which the United States triumphed against the world’s fifth-largest army sent shockwaves throughout a region. Even rejectionists reconsidered their positions. Secretary of State James Baker sought to catapult military victory into diplomatic triumph.
The 1991 Madrid Conference was the result: President George H.W. Bush and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev co-chaired the meeting that saw Syria and Israel sit together at a diplomatic forum for the first time. Israel also sat with a Palestinian team, albeit folded into the Jordanian delegation. While the conference did not result in any peace, it fractured stigmas and ultimately led to the 1993 Oslo Accords.
A military attack that decapitates or delegitimizes the Islamic Republic could be a game-changer throughout the region. Iran is also primed for regime change. Successive and increasingly frequent nationwide protests have exposed the Islamic Republic as a zombie regime that lacks popular legitimacy.
The ongoing truckers strike—impacting more than 120 towns and cities in 31 provinces parallels the labor action that helped force the shah from power 46 years ago. Iran is primed and ready for change.
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The question now is whether the United States is. Over the past year, Israel has shown innovation, capability, and precision that should force new consideration of its ability to achieve its goals. If the Islamic Republic collapses, is the United States prepared to mop up its “Axis of Resistance” from the remnants of Hezbollah to Iraqi militias like the Badr Corps to the Houthis? Suppose these terrorist groups and militias suddenly find themselves orphaned by the demise of their greatest patron.
Israeli Air Force 69th Squadron – Operation New Order: F-15I jets eliminating Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah
Do the White House and State Department have a plan to prevent potential new patrons like Turkey, Qatar, or Pakistan from emerging?
More importantly, can the United States complete stabilization in the region by bring a post-Islamic Republic Iran into the Abraham Accords as well as the Islamic Republic’s former allies in Iraq?After the last bomb drops and missile strikes, there may be unique opportunities. If U.S. authorities are more invested in punditry than preparation, the United States and its allies will not consolidate maximum gains.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The views expressed are his own.
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Doyle
June 12, 2025 at 10:09 pm
If a military attack roils iran, which looks to be 100% inevitable now since the (fascist-neoliberalist) world mafia is in charge of the globe today, independent nations MUST provide at a minimum strong political support for iran.
Russia could strike directly at the nazis with nukes thus sending the euro mafia into a big shokku shock, north korea could provide iran with nuke warheads and china must ban all rare earth minerals exports to the west.
In addition, someone should target all the satellites in LEO with EMP blasts, and so consign the reuters-directed world economy into a fatal tailspin should the world mafia start running amok.
Those who refuse to side with iran are traitors. They MUST be hanged from the nearest lampost.
doyle
June 12, 2025 at 10:18 pm
News have just emerged Israel has attacked iran in the early morning hours but which were targets aren’t known.
Russia and china MUST call for a UN meeting. And kick out the israeli embassies out of their countries.
Israel is clearly on the path to evolving into becoming annuder United States but with a totally unrestrained fp.
Its jericho rockets are already capable of hitting both russia and china.
The only thing that can decidedly destroy or take down this dangerously dangerous USA-wannabe is a space-based nuclear arsenal.
pagar
June 12, 2025 at 10:33 pm
World must be ready after Today’s Israeli attack on iran. That’s because ww3 is coming. Coming. COMING.
China must suspend all rare earths exports until There’s a proper explanation for all these ww3 foreplay.
To HELL with xi jinping if he doesn’t suspend all rare minerals exports.
Down with treachery and treacherous fake-masked leaders. Hang them high.
Doyle
June 12, 2025 at 11:39 pm
Israel has attacked iran in operation Rising Lion, an attack similar to japan’s 1941 attack on hawaii.
Israel says the attack will be continued in the coming days, and so ww3 is coming.
What did brazil’s nostradamus predicted for 2025. A ww3.
Athos salome said “A coming dangerous crisis is likely to spark an almighty global battle,” predicting a global collapse. In 2025.
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