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Inside Israel’s Limited Strike on Iran: Air Defenses and Strategic Signals

Israeli Air Force 69th Squadron - Operation New Order: F-15I jets eliminating Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah.
Israeli Air Force 69th Squadron - Operation New Order: F-15I jets eliminating Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah.

The worst has happened, and the world has not yet ended. After weeks of anticipation and fear, Israel struck Iranian targets last weekend with a series of attacks that did little significant damage other than to the prestige of Iran’s air defense networks. Iran has yet to counterattack in a meaningful way, and it is not obvious that Israel intends to follow up its initial strike with a more comprehensive campaign. We’re not yet to the point when we can breathe easy about a wider Middle East war, but the Israelis seem to be offering Iran an off-ramp that Tehran may well want to seize on.

The Strikes on Iran by Israel

Israeli attacks by and large did not focus on the largest point of dispute, the sites that contain Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It may be because such a campaign would be both costly and unlikely to achieve its aims. However confident the Israelis may be in their capacity to hit Iran, the nuclear program is a huge lift from a targeting and damage assessment point of view. Israel has run multiple simulations and exercises of an effort to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, although the lessons learned from such exercises remain obscure. Outside simulations have also failed to demonstrate the utility of hitting Iran’s nuclear program; a wargame run by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center earlier this year resulted in nuclear war between Israel and Iran, albeit in three years time.

Instead, strikes targeting air defense assets around Tehran and around some of Iran’s most important oil extraction infrastructure. The former seems geared towards maintaining a degree of threat towards Iran’s senior leadership, a threat that Israel has made plain with attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah leadership in Gaza, Lebanon, and Tehran itself. Israel does not lack for intelligence regarding the movements and residences of senior Iranian policymakers, and Iran evidently does lack the capacity to stop Israeli attacks. This puts the threat of decapitation, a type of air campaign that rarely works but is sometimes effective as a deterrent, at the top of the minds of Iranian leadership.

Israel also launched strikes targeting air defense assets around some of Iran’s most important oil extraction infrastructure. Some of this served a direct military purpose, as fuel production facilities for Iran’s ballistic missiles suffered significant damage. However, oil facilities themselves were not targeted, suggesting that Israel found it more important to send a message to Iran about economic vulnerability than to take advantage of that vulnerability. However, there is little indication that Israel had begun the long-term preparation needed to wage an economic campaign against the Islamic Republic. An air campaign against Iran’s economic infrastructure would have some advantages, offering softer, more plentiful targets and doing immediate economic harm to the Islamic Republic.

But the disadvantages are extreme. Israel can only damage the Iranian economy by inflicting damage on the world economy. Strikes against Iranian oil facilities (whether extraction or refinement) would necessarily have an unpleasant effect on global oil prices. Any campaign undertaken seriously would attempt to cause lasting damage to the Iranian economy, which would cause short-term dislocations to energy consumers around the world and would on balance benefit other pivotal energy producers. Strikes against oil facilities (especially offshore drilling platforms) would also run the risk of causing serious environmental damage. This would not affect Israel directly but would generate additional international opprobrium.

U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Brendan Price, 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling in-flight refueling specialist, delivers fuel to an Israeli Air Force F-16 during exercise Juniper Oak 23.3 above the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 11, 2023. The U.S. is committed to its partnership with Israel while developing and maintaining interoperability with its partners, and ensuring regional security by providing essential training to deter adversaries from taking aggressive actions or malign activities against the U.S., coalition and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jacob Cabanero)

U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Brendan Price, 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling in-flight refueling specialist, delivers fuel to an Israeli Air Force F-16 during exercise Juniper Oak 23.3 above the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 11, 2023. The U.S. is committed to its partnership with Israel while developing and maintaining interoperability with its partners, and ensuring regional security by providing essential training to deter adversaries from taking aggressive actions or malign activities against the U.S., coalition and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jacob Cabanero)

What Happens Next?

For its part, Iran seems eager to de-escalate.  Iran’s ability to inflict damage on Israel is real, but limited. Its proxies at the moment of more of a liability than an asset, unable to do much against Israel either than hunker down or retreat. Past simulations of conflict between Iran and Israel have suggested that restraint and de-escalation are Iran’s best strategies for weathering an Israeli attack. In the long run, however, Iran now has a better grip on the kinds of capabilities it will need to seriously entertain war against Israel. Improving its air defenses and increasing the lethality of its missile strike force are now high priorities, perhaps higher than the cultivation of proxies along Israel’s borders. This may well push Iran closer to Russia and China, who can supply arms and components of necessary sophistication.

Even if we miss out on a major Iran-Israel war this year, the future still looks dangerous and grim.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

Robert Farley
Written By

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Jacksonian Libertarian

    October 30, 2024 at 3:23 pm

    Apparently, Israel wants to “kick the can down the road” rather than Strategically cripple Iran’s logistics and support of their terrorist puppets (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis).
    This might be good if Israeli intelligence sees a major change in Iran’s governance on the horizon.
    They also might be gaining time for Trump to make a difference with the “Abraham Accords”, and smoothing the way with visible restraint for additional signatories.

  2. .pagar

    October 30, 2024 at 9:08 pm

    Hmm, fighting on multiple fronts is a highly exhausting if exhilarating experience even if there’s a rich patron picking up the tab.

    All the aircraft and tanks and other systems require some downtime no matter how brief to undergo a bit of inspection or nominal repair.

    Thus naturally a drop in the ‘tempo’ as you can’t keep things going at max rev all the time even if money’s no issue.

  3. pagar

    October 31, 2024 at 1:48 am

    The limited strike could well have been joe biden’s big worry his pet project in europe now showing huge signs of unravelling.

    Russian forces have just captured selydove, a town 10 miles south-east of pokrovsk, mostly intact.

    Pokrovsk is the lynchpin of biden’s ukro eastern defense in Donbass region.

    If that line falls or collapses, biden will have egg all over his face.

    The coming battle of pokrovsk could be a repeat of the battle of Zhitomir of December 1943.

    In fall of 1943, the Red Army crossed the Dnieper and the Germans under manstein quickly counterattacked and hit the Army.

    The Red Army decided to finish off the Nazis once and all and headed straight for Zhitomir.

    Fierce fighting erupted but on December 31 1943, the Red Army seized the burned out German redoubt and the Nazis collapsed all the way to eastern poland.

    Same story about to repeat today, and so, Joe biden has big big worries on his mind.

  4. Pingback: The All-Out War That Is Stubbornly Reluctant to Go All-Out - Lawyers, Guns & Money

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