Key Points – Canada’s navy is facing a critical capability gap as its four aging, British-built Victoria-class diesel-electric submarines near the end of their service lives.
-These submarines are ill-suited for patrolling Canada’s vast and increasingly contested Arctic coastline.
-Under its new defense policy, “Our North, Strong, and Free,” Ottawa plans to replace them with up to 12 new, conventionally-powered submarines with under-ice capability, at a cost of C$60 billion.
-However, the procurement process is in its earliest stages, and with a minimum 15-year timeline for delivery, Canada’s undersea warfare capabilities face a decade or more of vulnerability.
Victoria-Class Submarines in 4 Words: Nearing End of Life
The Arctic Ocean is becoming increasingly like a playground for powerful countries. Numerous nations have territorial claims there. This ocean is a resource-rich region, and some governments may wish to extract abundant oil and gas without permission.
The Arctic ice is melting. Therefore, submarines must patrol underneath it to protect the sovereignty and gather intelligence on adversarial navies. Submarines need great range and stealthiness for these missions because Canada has the most extensive coastline in the world.
But it doesn’t appear Canada’s submarines can rise to the challenge. There will continue to be incursions by foreign militaries, and the Canadians will suffer from one of the lowest defense spending ratios in NATO. It fails to meet the alliance’s two percent of GDP military budget target.
The Canadian Navy depends on the aging and obsolete Victoria-class sub from the 1990s, which spends more time in maintenance than in the Arctic.
Victoria-class Subs Have Limited Effectiveness
There are only four Victoria-class subs. The design of the Victoria-class lends itself to homeland defense and counter-narcotics duties rather than combat needs and power projection. They have older diesel-electric engines. The Victoria-class was meant to be an interim sub until Canada could build its own boats to answer the call for combat duties better. The subs are limited in capability. For example, they can only reach a top surface speed of 12 and 20 knots while submerged. The patrol endurance is just eight weeks.
The Victoria-class originated in the United Kingdom—they are not indigenously built. It’s unclear when they will be replaced, but Canadian political leadership is aware of their shortcomings.
Then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau commissioned a new defense strategy designed to address the problems of the Navy in general and undersea warfare in particular.
Rejuvenating the Canadian Armed Forces
It’s called “Our North, Strong, and Free.” This is considered a major defense policy update for the Canadian military. According to the strategy, the Canadians plan to replace the Victoria-class with 12 new submarines specifically configured to patrol the Arctic. The government will invest $60 billion (Canadian dollars) to the effort. The new subs will come on active duty in 2035.
“The procurement of up to 12 conventionally-powered, under-ice capable submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy will enhance Canada’s ability to detect and deter maritime threats, control our maritime approaches, and project power and striking capabilities further from our shores. We look forward to working with industry partners to implement this crucial project in support of the priorities outlined in Our North, Strong and Free,” the Canadian Minister of National Defence Bill Blair said, as reported by Naval News.
It is not clear if these boats will be nuclear or conventionally powered. Advanced diesel-electric subs can be ultra-quiet, but they don’t have the range of nuclear propulsion.
The Canadians thus have a choice to make in the coming years, and the price will likely be a factor along with the lead times of production and other needs for effective defense acquisition processes. Canada cannot afford delays and cost overruns.
Deciding on Nuclear-powered or Conventionally-powered Subs
In fact, Canada has wanted nuclear-powered submarines since at least 1987, when the Cold War necessitated an answer to Soviet-made boats that were making incursions into Canadian sovereignty.
However, Canadian allies were not sure they wanted to proliferate classified nuclear secrets, even from close partners such as the United States, Britain, France, and Germany.
To this day, military analysts and the defense forces are not sure whether to pursue nuclear or diesel-electric subs, and this indecision and reticence is delaying the replacement of the Victoria-class.
Those who favor the nuclear-powered subs are enamored with the great combat radius and range and the national pride of creating a home-grown nuclear sub. Those against them feel that these nuclear models are too expensive. These boats require specially-trained sailors and high levels of maintenance that Canada is not equipped for.
At a news conference in 2024, Trudeau said, “That is certainly what we will be looking at as to what type of submarines are most appropriate for Canada’s responsibility and protecting the longest coastline in the world.”
What’s Next for Canadian Political Leadership?
This indicated that the prime minister was open to the nuclear-powered submarine option. However, Trudeau left government service, and a new head of state took his place. Defense issues could be on the back burner as Canada enters a trade war with the United States.
Meanwhile, the Navy may want to buy a diesel-electric from Sweden that produces quality submarines for affordable prices. Germany and Norway offer jointly-built intriguing subs, too.
The Long Procurement Process Has Only Just Begun
The Victoria-class is scheduled to be retired in the mid-2030s, and Canada has started acquiring a new submarine with a Request for Information bid.
This is different than a Request for Proposals. That comes later. Canada is now searching for what the existing military industrial base has to offer, and the government can take data from contractors to see if the country could build its own sub. This takes time, of course, and the Canadian Navy is hobbled by using a sub that is not up to the rigors of effectively patrolling the Arctic.
At least Canada has identified the problem and the strategy behind it. The government will change after the new elections, and seeing how the Navy will be beefed up will be interesting. The Victoria-class will have to do until Canada can decide a path forward.
The defense forces hope their undersea warfare capabilities will not be hobbled in the coming years. The Arctic and Canada’s long coastline need the best defense posture possible, and it is time the Navy steps up to fill this void with new submarines.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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