China Is Building A Massive Fleet of J-20 Stealth Fighters

Key Points – The long-held US military assumption of air superiority faces significant challenges, particularly from China’s rapidly expanding J-20 stealth fighter fleet.

-While US F-35 production is high, many go to allies, slowing US inventory growth. Compounding this, the US Air Force grapples with a critical pilot shortage (2,000 deficit), low mission-capable rates for aircraft like the F-35 (due to maintenance/parts issues), and plans to divest more aircraft than acquired in the near term.

-These internal readiness problems, combined with China’s advancing capabilities, threaten the US ability to dominate contested airspace.

China’s J-20 Fighter Fleet Is Growing

The latter is a famous phrase that has been the mantra of the US Army Special Forces (and, more broadly, American special operators in general) for decades.

Owning the night implies the ability to attack, dominate, eviscerate, and destroy an enemy anywhere and anytime once our nearest star has dipped below the distant horizon.

In the case of US military combat air units, owning the sky over a battlespace is paramount. It has been an established and expected staple of American combat operations since the close of the Second World War. So effective is the US military at establishing air superiority that it is virtually a given whenever and wherever American military units are deployed.

Quickly establishing control of the air domain allows American ground forces to seek out and eliminate prescribed targets with little to no fear of enemy air strikes or observation. However, if a force encounters resistance, US infantry or special forces commanders can readily rely on an overabundance of on-call, tactical air support to neutralize any threats in their path.

Policymakers and the US general population may take for granted the quintessential effort and art of establishing air dominance.

Operating in Contested Airspace … Once Again

US combat air units haven’t truly had to deal with established, trained, and supplied counter-air assets since the Vietnam War. According to Air and Space Forces Magazine, “USAF combat losses in Vietnam were distributed as 67 to MiGs, 110 to surface-to-air missiles, and 1,443 to antiaircraft artillery.”

Since Vietnam, the US military has dealt with lower-tier foes, but this does not diminish the skill, determination, and grit of US military fliers.

If there is to be a large-scale military confrontation between the US and another peer competitor, it will be with China. This confrontation, be it brief or of a longer duration, will be multifaceted, encompassing all domains, and highly destructive. Like all modern conflicts, air power and the establishment of air supremacy will be paramount.

That crucial detail is well-known by Chinese military planners, who have closely observed US military deployments for over 25 years. Indeed, Sadam’s military’s steamrolling in Desert Storm greatly motivated Beijing to kick its military reforms into high gear.

In terms of dominating the airspace up to the second island chain (which runs from Japan south to the eastern islands of Indonesia), Chinese military planners are making the J-20, produced by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the lynchpin of their air supremacy effort. Displacing the US military from their region is central to their plans.

Specifics on the J-20, its Production and Deployment

The Chinese Peoples Liberation Air Force (PLAF) needs mass to displace the US and dominate the skies in its immediate periphery. To this point, they currently possess 3,150 total aircraft; that figure does not include trainer aircraft or unmanned systems. Additionally, this number does not include the several thousand more aircraft in the Chinese Navy, Marine Corps, or Army.

As previously stated, the J-20 is tasked with air superiority missions. To this end, the aircraft is being built at the rate of approximately 100 airframes per year, all of which are being delivered to the PLAF. Some estimates conclude that over 1,000 J-20s may be produced.

Currently, the PLAF has over 200 J-20s in service, disbursed across 12 brigades. Given the high production rate, the PLAF may be able to field 30 brigades by the end of this decade.

While the F-35’s production rate is approximately 135 airframes per year, 60 to 70 of that number are being delivered to 20 F-35 program partner states. As of this year, according to Lockheed Martin, over 1,100 deliveries have been made.

On the low end, assuming 60 F-35s are being delivered to partner states, that only leaves 75 units to be inducted into the US military per year. Some estimates place the number at below 50 new F-35s being inducted into the US military. Currently, the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps possess 700 F-35s, and the DoD plans to eventually procure 2,470 of the aircraft.

While the J-20 is considered a 4.5-generation aircraft that is likely less capable than the F-35, the PLAF will eventually have many more of them at its disposal. Additionally, in any war, the front line for China will be much closer to the production and repair facilities, and the PLAF will be able to saturate the skies with the J-20 and its sister aircraft. Assuming they can produce enough of this aircraft before any conflict, the quick production and full-scale delivery to the PLAF could tip the masses in their favor.

A Final Glaring Issue … the Pilot and Aviation Readiness Crisis

All US military aviation arms need pilots … badly; this issue is not just something to glance at; it is a crisis that needs to be addressed. The US military will require 75,000 pilots in the next 20 years. At present, the Air Force alone suffers from a 2,000-pilot deficit. Half of this number is made up of combat pilots.

Further, under the Biden Administration’s plans, the Air Force is currently on track to decommission over 1,000 aircraft in the next five years while at the same time acquiring a fraction of that number. In the 2025 fiscal year alone, the Air Force requested to divest 250 aircraft while purchasing only 91. It does not require a genius to conclude that retiring more aircraft that you buy will be detrimental to the Air Force’s combat capabilities.

Finally, over 500 of the Air Force’s flyable aircraft are grounded at any given time due to a chronic lack of spare parts.

Specifically regarding the F-35, the Government Accountability Office States:

“In fiscal year 2024, the F-35A and F-35B variants were below the full mission-capable minimum-performance target by more than 27 and 45 percentage points. Furthermore, each F-35 variant in fiscal year 2024 did not meet its target for mission-capable minimum performance by at least eight percentage points.”

What Needs to be Done?

If or when the US military confronts China, airpower will play a strategic and crucial role in the fight. To ensure that the US military remains competitive in the air domain, the services must do everything in their power to keep their pilots in the service rather than being enticed by the private industry.

Another aspect of the pilot shortage is the need for a new trainer aircraft, the T-7A Red Hawk. This aircraft must be produced quickly, and all the stops must be moved out of the way to get it to the aviation schools. This will ensure that cadet pilots receive the required training hours to move to their respective units.

Regarding spare parts, production needs to be drastically ramped up, or new facilities need to be built to get those parts out to the field. There is no excuse for having vast numbers of aircraft down when they could be providing vital service to their units.

The ability of the US military’s air units to stay in the air and provide vital direct action and support missions hinges on the ability of ready and capable pilots, maintainers, and the all-important movement of spare parts. The time is now to address these critical shortfalls; China will not wait for us to catch up.

Author Biography: Christian P. Martin

Christian P. Martin is a Michigan-based writer; he earned a Master’s degree in Defense & Strategic Studies (Summa cum laude) from the University of Texas, El Paso. Currently, he is a research assistant at the Asia Pacific Security Innovation Forum. Concerning writing, he has published several dozen articles in places like Simple Flying, SOFREP, SOF News, and The Collector.

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