Could Israel Attack and Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?

Should Israel Attack the Iranian Nuclear Program? The Israelis have been agitating and threatening to make a pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure for years and the United States has always worked to put the brakes on such an attack. It wouldn’t be easy should the Israelis ignore the Americans and forge ahead with the mission. The Iranian nuclear facilities are far away, and strikes would require at least one in-air refueling. The Israeli air force also has no long-range bombers, so aviators would have to fly F-35Is with scores of bunker busting bombs to target the nuclear sites – a difficult stealth mission although not impossible.

Countdown to Armageddon

But is now the right time for such an attack?

The pre-emptive strike would likely cause an all-out war between Israel and Iran. The Iranian air force has likely prepped contingency operations for such a strike mission by Israel. Interception fighters would be scrambled quickly, and anti-air defenses would be readied for any Israeli air incursion over Iranian air space, no matter how stealthy the Israeli F-35Is are.

No Option Looks Good

Nevertheless, I would argue Iran will soon acquire a nuclear device before Israel can attack. This will leave the International Community and the United States and its Arab partners in a no-win situation with few good military or diplomatic options, much like dealing with a nuclear-equipped North Korea.

If Israel wanted to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it should have done it long ago. Now, it is just too late to stop the inevitable.

Israel Could Reach Iranian Nuclear Facilities

But could Israel successfully conduct such a strike? It has come close before. In April, the Israeli air force attacked an “Iranian military site located in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which hosts nuclear research reactors, a uranium conversion plant, and a fuel production plant, among other facilities,” according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Nothing to Stop the Inevitable

However successful this mission was, it does not mean a strike against Iranian nuclear infrastructure would stop Tehran from getting a nuclear device. However, it could delay the acquisition, and that would buy Israel and the United States time to create some diplomatic momentum, however difficult that may be.

If the Israeli incursion were unsuccessful, Tehran would give the order to put the finishing touches on the device. The Iranians have the fissile material and enriched uranium to do so and could likely test the nuclear weapon in days, if not weeks, upon command.

An Israeli Attack Is Not Worth It

This doesn’t mean Israel will not try an attack; it is just risky strategically, operationally, and tactically.

What is the end state that Israel wants to achieve? Do they want to end the Iranian nuclear program ultimately? It’s too late for that. Do they want to delay it? They would just be prolonging the inevitable. Do they want to continue to threaten an attack? That’s not likely to stop the Iranians.

The Americans Are Standing By

All of these options are unsatisfactory. That leaves the United States to “do something” before a new president takes office. The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, recently gave an order to alert several thousand American personnel to be ready for deployment to the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group will remain in the region. But this is more for a show of force, stabilization effort, or even peacekeeping – not offensive actions. I also deem this action by the Biden administration unnecessarily risky, needlessly provocative, and dangerously short-sighted. What happened to keeping a low presence in the Middle East and focusing on East Asia?

Biden and His Diplomats Are Working Overtime

How badly do the Americans want to keep the Iranians from achieving a nuclear weapon? It was not bad enough to allow the Israelis to conduct a pre-emptive strike. Diplomats and military officials under Biden are likely begging Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from an Iranian attack for the reasons I discussed above. It is simply too little and too late to conduct the operation, and it will only delay and not stop the Iranian nuclear program.

Just Deal With It

That leaves what I call “Operation Deal With It.” This means that the International Community may have to adjust to a world in which Iran is a nuclear power and treat them like North Korea. Denuclearization has not worked in the Middle East despite the efforts of Netanyahu, Obama, Trump, and Biden. Now is the time to re-group and format a strategy for living with the bomb in the Middle East, and in my mind, that means improving missile defense among U.S. allies in the region.

Israel has the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow defense shield. Would they share the technology with allies cooperating with the Abraham Accords? What about Saudi Arabia and Turkey? Who would want their own nuclear weapons program? This sharing of missile defense technology might be unthinkable five years ago, but it could go a long way toward deterring Iran once it is nuclear-capable.

Israel should thus refrain from a pre-emptive attack. The tactics may be possible, but the strategy is lacking. Iran may just test a nuclear device and mate it with a ballistic missile. Israel and the International Community will have to stand back and watch in frustration and then plan for the day that Iran can be deterred from a first strike. That showdown date is approaching fast, and it may take a new U.S. president and a new Israeli prime minister to come up with additional diplomatic efforts to deal with the bomb in the Middle East.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.