Nothing Can Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Weapon

Iran is getting closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon, and there is not a thing that its enemies can do about it.

Sure, Israel could do some preventive strike, but its air force has no long-range bombers. Its fighters would probably have to depend on the United States for refueling the jets to reach Iran, although Israel has some in-air refueling airplanes that it used during a long-range strike against Yemen last month. Tehran has challenging to destroy, hardened, and deeply underground nuclear facilities and infrastructure.

It seems that if Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon, the time has long passed to avoid that possibility if Tehran does decide to go forward.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Few Options Are Left

As far as what America could do alone is limited. Last-minute diplomacy could slow down the inevitable, but that is not likely considering the belligerence of the “Axis of Resistance.” Iran is hopping mad because of Israeli decapitation strikes on Hezbollah. The Iranians want a nuclear weapon badly and could have something to test soon.

It Will Create a Middle East Arms Race

The United States, Europe, the Greater Middle East, and Israel must be ready for Iran’s nuclear breakout. They should coordinate a unified response for this contingency. Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, plus Turkey, will likely start nuclear programs to get their own device, sparking an arms race in the region. It will take supreme efforts by international organizations to keep nuclear proliferation limited in the Middle East.

More and More Enriched Uranium

Iran is swiftly enriching uranium, and this critical stockpile is growing each month. The International Atomic Energy Agency believes Iran has “363.1 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60 percent—an increase of 49.8 pounds since the U.N. agency’s May 2024 report.”

We are Talking About Weeks Away, Perhaps Even Days Away from an Iranian Bomb

Iran is believed to be able to take this material and create a testable device in one to two weeks to proceed. This could even come sooner. The Heritage Foundation wrote that “we must assume that Tehran’s supply of highly enriched uranium could be converted to enough weapons-grade fuel to produce a handful of nuclear bombs in a matter of days.”

Mating the Device to Ballistic Missiles

Next would come the delivery mechanism and the process Iran would use to mate its device to a ballistic missile. The Iranians have already tested a multi-stage space-launch vehicle, which means they have the technical know-how to produce highly advanced missiles that can carry nuclear warheads eventually.

A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft with the Wisconsin Air National Guard’s 115th Fighter Wing ascends into the clouds during exercise Northern Lightning Aug. 9, 2024, at Volk Field. Wisconsin. The F-35 works in parallel with 4th generation fighters, demonstrating the strength of combined airpower in the face of strategic competition. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Constantine Bambakidis)

Iran as a Nuclear Power Gives Them Ultimate Leverage

A nuclear weapon mated to an ICBM would give Iran unprecedented power over political and economic activity in the Middle East. Tehran could manipulate energy prices and stifle global trade, negatively affecting telecommunications by threatening the use of undersea communication cables.

Iran could also have more confidence in blocking trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Iran Will Be Like North Korea

This type of nuclear blackmail is possible if Iran gets the devices that it wants. This means a more aggressive Iran – think North Korea-like power to test the device and ballistic missiles to show the world that it is serious about first-use capability. Iran would not have the ability to conduct a second strike as a counter-blast from Israeli and American nuclear weapons would target the bomb-making infrastructure in Iran.

More Conventional Attacks

However, Iran could deter enemies and rivals and refuse to bend to the will of the International Community. It would continue to support the Houthis, and their missile launches in the Red Sea – another way that international trade and commerce would be effective in the region. Iran would likely increase the frequency of conventional missile attacks at Israel and U.S. military installations in Iraq.

Thus, the United States would no longer be able to shape events in the Middle East with a nuclear-equipped Iran.

What Would the United States Do?

Actions to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon are limited and have already been tried. Financial sanctions have somewhat worked, resulting in Iran’s hard currency reserves dwindle under the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, but less so during the Biden reign. Efforts to help Israel prepare militarily to react against a nuclear weapon have been going on for years. The United States could build on the Abraham Accords and give more military aid to Gulf States for capabilities such as missile defense. America could also improve early warning satellite intelligence and share this data with its allies in the region. But all of these gambits have limited reach and effectiveness.

A B-52H Stratofortress taxis down the runway at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., Sept. 16, 2021. The bomber is capable of flying at high subsonic speeds at altitudes up to 50,000 feet. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Zachary Wright)

This leaves the only option: treat Iran like the International Community treats North Korea. The International Community would need to isolate Iran and use transactional diplomacy to create an environment in which Tehran would limit the scope of the nuclear program and refrain from testing the bomb and its ballistic missiles.

Iran: The Inevitable Nuclear Weapons State?

As you can see, Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon is a fait accompli. There is little the United States and its allies can do to stop it, and many, if not all, preventive actions have already been conducted. It is time for the Americans and the International Community to plan for the aftermath of a successful Iranian nuclear weapon test and the eventual mating of the device to a ballistic missile. Iran would be then treated like an atomic state similar to North Korea, and nuclear weapons could increase in the region. It will be tumultuous, and diplomacy will be more difficult in the coming years. The International Community should prepare for this day and institute as many safeguards as possible.

All of these scenarios will confront the next American president, and it will be a crisis of great magnitude that has no good options or answers.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.