The 2026 midterm elections are just three weeks away and are shaping up to be a bloodbath for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, thanks to the unpopularity of the president himself, as well as the Iran War and the still-high cost of living, including high gas prices.
It’s not a great state of affairs for the president, who won the election to return to office two years ago, largely because of the inflationary environment during the Biden years.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks regarding unifying the nation after the attempted assassination of former President Trump, Sunday, July 14, 2024, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)
According to a CNN report on Monday, the midterm election has, on the Republican side, “turned into a triage operation,” with the GOP moving to defend seats, including in red states, that they thought were relatively safe until recently.
The report added that the president’s party is increasingly fearful it will lose its Senate majority and the House of Representatives.
CNN also said that while Republicans have pushed Trump to travel more in recent months to support candidates, they now worry the president is so unpopular that such travel might hurt the candidates he’s coming to support.
“Trump is dragging the party down,” one House Republican, who did not share their name, told CNN.
What About That Cash Advantage?
Even though Republicans were expected all year to face headwinds in the midterm elections, they’ve long been thought to have one ace in the hole: a major fundraising advantage over Democrats, who have struggled mightily to raise funds so far in Trump’s second term.
Elon Musk, a major donor to Trump’s campaign in 2024, has donated a further $366 million to his America PAC over the last year for GOP election efforts.
However, CNN noted that the Republicans’ money advantage has done little to improve their chances next month.
Donald Trump Back in 2016. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., has put major money forward in various races, but it doesn’t seem to be helping the party much so far.
That’s partly because the GOP has become spread thin, even pulling money from races expected to be competitive.
Senate Triage
As CNN said, another Republican Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has pulled money from what was expected to be a competitive Senate race in North Carolina—where the party is defending a seat in a state Trump won—and put it into races in deep-red states like Kansas and South Carolina.
The Senate Leadership Fund, meanwhile, has put $100 million into the Texas Senate race, where Trump-backed Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talerico, who is trying to become the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas in a generation.
Paxton has been caught on tape at a private fundraiser, complaining that Trump hasn’t helped him, including with his midterm convention last month in Dallas.
Earlier this week, some low-level conservative influencers pulled a botched social media operation, seeking to show that Talerico had spent some time in a mental institution in Ohio- one that fell apart spectacularly.
“We were all hoping the war was going to be over now, but it’s not,” one Trump adviser told CNN, in reference to Iran. “We shouldn’t have a fight in a place like Texas, but obviously we do.”
The picture also isn’t great for Republicans in the House, where the Cook Political Report last week moved 18 House races toward Democrats.
Jason Roe, a Michigan GOP strategist, told CNN that “I don’t know that the environment could possibly get worse than it is.”
Other Big Factors
Other factors seen as potentially helping Republicans this fall, whether strong voter-ID laws in some red states or redistricting that changed boundaries in several states, also aren’t seen as helping the GOP as much as they hoped heading into the year.
The “SAVE America Act,” a tougher voter ID bill touted by the president, hasn’t passed, and longtime Trump supporter Steve Bannon said this week that its failure to pass is part of why the GOP risks losing control of the Senate next month.
He accused the Senate of being “weak” for not passing the bill during the current Congress, while also signaling that the Republican Senate hasn’t done enough to help Trump pass his agenda over the last two years.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
