Iran Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz After Lull in Fighting: Iran declared Monday that it has consolidated control over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), emphasizing its strategic importance and underscoring the gravity of the situation.
Reuters reports that Iranian authorities turned back six vessels attempting to transit the SoH without receiving permission from Tehran. After weeks of American bombardment, it is obvious that the American air campaign has failed to degrade the Iranian military capability in the SoH enough to prevent Iran from making such threats credibly.
B-2 Bomber Elephant Walk. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
B-2 Spirit stealth bombers assigned to Whiteman Air Force Base taxi and take-off during exercise Spirit Vigilance on Whiteman Air Force Base on November 7th, 2022. Routine exercises like Spirit Vigilance assure our allies and partners that Whiteman Air Force Base is ready to execute nuclear operations and global strike anytime, anywhere. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Bryson Britt)
Reports suggest that Iran continues enforcing restrictions on maritime traffic through the narrow waterway despite the temporary halt in combat operations. These moves by Tehran are likely part of a longer-running plan to exercise control over at least their side of the SoH–plans that will ultimately involve Tehran tolling the SoH.
A Quiet Evening in Nearly Two Weeks
Saturday night marked the first time in nearly two weeks that the US and Iran did not exchange strikes. It was a welcome pause for the Americans, who are starting to feel the effects of the closures of the SoH, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Red Sea.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that the CENTCOM leadership advised President Donald Trump that the airstrikes were proving ineffective. At the same time, the CENTCOM leaders warned that air defense interceptors were depleting far more rapidly than they had anticipated at the start of the war.
Neither Washington nor Tehran indicated whether the pause signaled broader diplomatic efforts or just a temporary break, leaving the future uncertain and prompting concern.
The Iran War Has Become About Reopening a Strait That Was Open Before the War
The SoH continues being the central strategic issue in this conflict. The narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. Before the war began on February 28, a significant portion of globally traded crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the SoH each day. Now, barely any passes through, creating massive disruptions in the energy industry, spiking the prices of critical goods everywhere, and risking major economic contractions globally unless the SoH is reopened.
A key sticking point now between Iran and the US is that Tehran has asserted control over the SoH that it previously never really claimed. Iranian leaders say that the SoH cuts through their waters and, as the Turks do in the Bosphorus under the Montreux Convention of 1936, Tehran wants the right to exact fees upon the ships passing through their waters. Washington is committed to maintaining the SoH as an open waterway that is free of impediment by Iran.
Iran’s comments show that Tehran is undeterred in its plans to implement a tolling scheme upon the SoH. Indeed, according to Reuters, six ships attempting to transit the SoH on Monday were turned away after failing to receive Iranian clearance to pass.
The Iran War Enters Its Fifth Month
What began as a short, 96-hour air war aimed at decapitating an allegedly unpopular regime in Tehran resulted in a five-month-long war that has disrupted the global economy and drastically weakened the US military in terms of its stockpiles of essential weapons. In those five months, the US military has made no headway toward achieving victory at the strategic level.
Meanwhile, it appears as though Iran gets stronger every day.
Such a prolonged conflict has placed growing pressure on the global economy.
Energy markets have operated with increased volatility since the war began on February 28. Oil and natural gas prices have remained elevated amid concerns that further disruptions could reduce global energy supplies. The conflict has also complicated Washington’s relationships with several longtime allies, many of whom have urged both sides to pursue a negotiated end to the war, while seeking to prevent additional escalation across the Middle East.
Casualties Increase as the Pentagon Attempts to Downplay Them
At least 18 US military service members have been killed since the conflict began. In fact, the loss of American lives since the start of the war has become a significant point of contention, with critics of the US war arguing that the official numbers have been downplayed or underreported.
Indeed, four service members who died as a result of Iranian strikes on their base in Jordan had their names removed from the Pentagon’s casualty list for the war because the War Department says the deaths happened when the US was technically in a ceasefire with Iran. Since then, however, the Pentagon has restored the four names.
Meanwhile, the Iranians report that more than 3,400 deaths inside the country have occurred.
Those figures have not been independently verified, and casualty estimates may continue changing as additional information becomes available. Civilian infrastructure, military facilities, and energy-related sites have all been damaged during the months-long conflict.
Where Do We Go From Here?
The absence of strikes over the weekend was a welcome development for both sides. Nevertheless, neither Tehran nor Washington has announced any formal agreement to suspend combat operations.
The pause over the weekend leaves open whether this signals a move toward broader negotiations or is merely a temporary lull, highlighting the uncertainty about future diplomatic efforts.
For now, the military situation appears calmer than it has been in recent weeks. Still, competing claims over control of the SoH continue to underscore the strategic importance of the waterway and how ineffective the last round of US airstrikes against Iran have been. Because if those airstrikes were effective, the Iranians wouldn’t be able to exert any degree of control over the Strait. And without Tehran ceding control of the Strait back to the international community, the US is unlikely to stop the war.
Looking ahead, the US may escalate its response, possibly with deeper airstrikes or ground operations, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its global repercussions.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
