There Is Only One Question Left for Trump: How Bad Will the GOP Lose Tonight? – As Americans head to the polls, pundits and political observers expect a bad night for the Republicans. U.S. President Donald Trump continues to drum up support for GOP candidates.
Still, the projected poor showing for conservative candidates in these midterm elections can be laid at the feet of the president. The data proves it.
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, Alaska, August 15, 2025 (DoD photo by Benjamin Applebaum)
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, Alaska, August 15, 2025 (DoD photo by Benjamin Applebaum)
Questionable Decision-Making
One House Republican, speaking anonymously to Politico, hit the nail on the head: “It was just one thing after another.”
“There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history,” the GOP congressman told the outlet. “And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.”
While many in the GOP have refrained from criticizing the president in public, a growing number of Republicans have also expressed disappointment with Trump privately, largely because of the economic impact of his policies and how they are affecting how their constituents vote.
“We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump. And do we continue down a path of losing?” a Republican strategist told the news outlet. He also said that conservatives face a lot of uncertainty at the moment, remarking that many Republicans who have not been fully on board with Trump’s policies “have been good soldiers.” “But what happens if we lose 35 House seats and six Senate seats?” he posited.
Another GOP member in the House had harsher words for the president, saying former President Barack Obama did better for his party.
“At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends.”
Defending the Indefensible?
The war in Iran, in particular, has been a sore spot for Republicans — and Americans in general — owing to the conflict pushing the price of gas to highs not seen in recent years.
The current national average price of regular gas is $4.149, while average prices for mid-grade and premium gasoline stand at $4.657 and $5.055, respectively.
In comparison, last year’s average for regular gas at around the same time was $3.036.
Trump has attempted to rationalize the escalation of America’s involvement in the Middle Eastern conflict in Iran, citing national security.
The president has repeatedly told reporters and audiences that the war in Iran is “a very small price to pay for the security of this country and for the world.”
White House Spokesperson Davis Ingle defended the president’s record, however, calling the president the “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” Ingle added that Trump is “committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
The GOP is Poised to Lose in Battleground States
Dissatisfaction with Trump is reflected in projections for battleground states like Ohio and Michigan, which Trump won in 2024.
If most major national polling is to be believed, Democrats are expected to take both the senatorial and gubernatorial races there.
In Michigan in particular, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for senator, is poised to beat his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, 53% to 42%.
Trump has singled out El-Sayed in his verbal tirades in recent weeks, calling the candidate a “jihadist” whom the president said was “on the side of terrorists,” adding that voting for El-Sayed was akin to letting the September 11 attacks happen all over again.
If El-Sayed wins, he would become the country’s first Muslim senator.
Even in Texas, one of the GOP’s historical strongholds, Democrats are expected to take the Senate and governor seats.
Democrat James Talarico is expected to win his Senate bid with 50% of the vote, against his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is projected to get 43%.
Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is running for re-election, is also expected to be ousted from the governor’s mansion by Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with the latter expected to win by a narrow margin of 48% to 47%.
History Repeats Itself, But With Trump’s Help This Time Around
The president’s party has historically lost seats in midterm elections, with the only exceptions in the last two decades being Bill Clinton’s Democrats in 1998 and the Republicans under George W. Bush in 2002. And this year will be no different.
The only question, really, is just how badly the Republican Party will lose.
Given the state of politics and what the national polls show, the Trump-led GOP is expected to follow this trend, with the party’s only hope being a substantial Republican turnout that narrowly prevents Democrats from taking control of at least one chamber.
But it didn’t have to be this way.
Early-2026 predictions had Republicans set to retain their Senate majority.
Trump’s decision to bomb Iran and increase America’s involvement in the conflict in the Middle East has changed all that.
And as candidates make their final pitches to voters, the results may finally spell the end of the legend of the modern-day “Teflon Don.”
About the Author: Tim Ramos
Tim Ramos has written for various publications, corporations, and organizations, covering everything from finance, politics, travel, entertainment, and sports – in Asia and the U.S. for more than 10 years.
