Key Points and Summary – Europe’s ambitious sixth-generation Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is facing a new crisis after the CEO of France’s Dassault Aviation publicly slammed Belgium for buying American F-35s while also wanting to be a partner.
-The CEO warned Belgium it couldn’t have it both ways, prompting Brussels to reconsider its role in the program.
-The feud exposes a deep rift, as European nations are tempted by the readily available and continuously upgraded F-35. This infighting, combined with fierce competition from the U.S., could cause the fragile €100 billion European project to unravel completely.
FCAS Problems Have Landed
Belgium is reportedly reconsidering its role in the European Future Combat Air System (FCAS) following a public rebuke from Dassault Aviation’s CEO over the country’s procurement decisions.
While Brussels has pledged €300 million to the ambitious European sixth-generation fighter jet program and is seeking full partner status, it has also opted to purchase 11 U.S.-built F-35A aircraft.
The move has proven controversial among its main industrial partners Airbus and Dassault Aviation, prompting a Belgian Defense Ministry spokesperson to confirm that the country’s role in FCAS is now being reconsidered.
Speaking during a quarterly earnings call, Dassault CEO Eric Trappier slammed Belgium for playing both sides, arguing that the country cannot become a full participating member of the project without fully committing to the plan.
“If [Belgium] gives up the idea of buying F-35s, they’d be welcome, if they are not, then that’s really making a monkey out of us,” Trappier said. The French CEO also said that Belgium should not expect to benefit from jobs created by the FCAS program while also buying from the U.S.
What Is FCAS – And Why Are Partners Angry?
FCAS is a flagship European defense collaboration launched in 2017 by France, Germany, and Spain. French aerospace firm Dassault Aviation, aerospace giant Airbus, and Spanish information technology and defense systems Indra Sistemas serve as industrial coordinators for the project.
Designed to be a “system of systems” that focuses on the development of next-generation combat air capability, FCAS combines a sixth-generation crewed fighter with swarming remote drone carriers, a next-generation “combat cloud,” advanced weapons, sensors, and communication networks.
The platforms are designed to operate within the new AI-powered “combat cloud” infrastructure that allows manned and unmanned systems to coordinate and communicate seamlessly.
A prototype flight is expected between 2027 and 2029, with full operational capability expected around 2040.
Belgium joined the program as an observer in June 2023, before gradually deepening its commitment through financial investment. Belgium confirmed its intention to become a full partner in the program once it reaches the next stage of development.
Why FCAS Is Having Issues
Trappier’s frustration with Belgium is not without merit, especially given that Brussels is already reconsidering its participation in the program.
If European nations continue to hedge their bets by supporting FCAS financially while simultaneously buying American platforms, it could undermine the financial viability of the program. With an estimated total cost of €100 billion, the stakes are high.
Industrial partners like Dassault stand to secure major contracts and long-term profits through workshare allocations. A report by German outlet Hartpunkt claimed earlier this month that Dassault is pushing to claim up to 80% of the workshare, arguing that it has the technical capability to lead the design of the program’s planned sixth-generation fighter.
Europe’s Sixth-Generation Fighter Project At Risk
Dassault has since denied the reports out of Germany, but its CEO has warned that the project is at risk.
Just last week, Dassault raised questions about the program’s future amid a feud with Europe’s Airbus over control of the program. Trappier said that the program requires clearer leadership and improved organization to move forward. The French aerospace CEO said that action must be taken now to ensure partners can move towards the second phase of its sixth-generation aircraft development that will see the production of a flying model.
The Long-Term Challenge and F-35
The Belgian government’s confirmation this week that it is reevaluating its participation in FCAS has placed new pressure on the already fragile European defense initiative.
The move could prompt other European partners to consider their involvement in the program amid a rush to meet NATO’s new 5% GDP defense spending target and strengthen the bloc’s collective air capabilities. Off-the-shelf solutions from the United States, designed to enhance European air forces quickly, could prove a compelling and tempting option for Belgium and others.
Chief among these solutions is the fifth-generation F-35A fighter – one of the most in-demand platforms among NATO countries. For nations seeking to rapidly replace aging fleets or bridge the capability gap until next-generation aircraft arrive—if they do indeed arrive—the F-35A is a proven and cost-effective option. In addition to stealth and advanced networking capabilities, the F-35A is already in use in Europe and procurement in greater numbers would guarantee broader interoperability with U.S. forces.
Interoperability with U.S. forces is an increasingly critical consideration for European governments amid rising global tensions – and Lockheed Martin’s plans to improve the F-35 platform further make it a particularly tempting solution.
After losing the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract to Boeing, the F-35’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, announced plans to potentially integrate key sixth-generation technologies into its existing F-35, a Ferrari F-35, of sorts. Lockheed CEO Jim Taiclet described the program as a cost-efficient alternative to sixth-generation aircraft that will deliver 80% of next-generation performance at half the price. Of course, the plane still needs to be built, but it could have powerful potential and be tempting for Europe.
What Happens Next?
Ultimately, European governments will need to decide what sixth-generation fighter architecture they intend to develop domestically or procure from overseas. Those decisions must balance immediate operational needs with long-term viability, ensuring any chosen system remains effective well into the future.
With the United States reportedly planning to operate the F-35 until 2070, Lockheed Martin’s upgraded variant could prove to be a tempting alternative to FCAS.
Its appeal as a cost-effective and high-performance solution could undermine enthusiasm for FCAS and become yet another challenge that threatens the project’s survival.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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