Key Points – The concept of Russian “war fatigue” has been a recurring theme among Western analysts for over a year, but has yet to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
-Recent analyses from think tanks like the Wilson Center and CEPA argue that Russia’s stalled military, mounting casualties, and a struggling domestic economy are clear signs of exhaustion.
-This is supported by anecdotal evidence from Russian soldiers expressing their desire to go home.
-However, while some experts believe this fatigue could be a “Trump card” for the West, Vladimir Putin continues to prosecute the war, betting he can outlast Western resolve.
Can ‘War Fatigue’ Finally Force Putin to End the Ukraine War?
The war between Russia and Ukraine is showing no signs of ending. The two sides engaged in peace talks in Turkey over recent weeks, but the talks did not yield any breakthroughs that could lead to an end to the war.
Ukraine then launched a daring drone attack that struck airfields throughout Russia, and Russia retaliated. Both sides struck a defiant tone.
Meanwhile, there is a question as to whether the Russian side is suffering from war fatigue. Whether that means the war effort will collapse is a whole other question, especially since the idea of Russian war fatigue has been raised before.
Bad Signs For Russia in Ukraine
Back in mid-May, a Foreign Policy report argued that “Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine.” While it was written before recent developments like the Istanbul peace talks and the drone attacks, the piece by Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, argued that Russia was starting to lose the war. And that, in part, was because Russians were getting sick of it.
“In Ukraine, Russia’s military is stalled while deaths and casualties mount. Putin has no way out of the war—other than to admit a version of defeat. The Kremlin can try to hide the war’s misery from Russians but only to the extent that it can tell the war’s story,” Kimmage wrote.
“Putin cannot as effectively erase evidence of a faltering economy. Nor can he offer Russians any coherent political promise other than endless Putinism. Slowly and not yet suddenly, Russia is starting to lose the war.”
Russia is struggling with military advances that have been minimal, as well as with Ukraine’s continued resilience. Russia, the argument says, has “mismanaged its diplomacy with the West” while the Russian economy continues to struggle.
Also, in mid-May, the New York Times wrote about Russian soldiers, who described themselves as ‘war-weary” while nevertheless wanting to conquer more of Ukraine before the war ended.
“We’re all tired, we want to go home. But we want to take all of the regions, so that we don’t have to struggle for them in the future,” a Russian soldier named Sergei told the newspaper. “Otherwise, have all the guys died in vain?
“I’m in the middle of all this mess, and, honestly speaking, I am tired of it,” a drafted Russian soldier named Dmitri told the Times. “I have no more desire to keep stewing in this soup.”
Is Trump the Cure?
Meanwhile, back in March, Oleksandr Shulga wrote for the website of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) a piece titled “Russia Needs Trump Card for War Fatigue.” The argument was that Russia was indeed suffering fatigue from the war but that Russia “has fewer cards than the White House believes.
“High levels of inflation, falling living standards and war weariness have seen Russians turn against the conflict, which was supposed to be completed in a few days but has dominated their lives for more than three years,” Shulga wrote.
There were, the author added, “growing questions over how much longer the Russian people are prepared to tolerate the war and personally participate.” She also noted that while Ukrainians see the war as existential, “Russians do not link victory to their own survival.”
The Fatigue Has Been Around For A While
Then again, there has been talk of “war fatigue” within Russia for a very long time, and it hasn’t brought about an end to the war yet.
The Nation ran a piece called “In Russia, Clear Signs of War Fatigue,” which was published in January 2024, more than a year ago.
“Ample evidence suggests war fatigue is setting in for Russia as well. If so, both sides might have an interest in bringing the war to an end.” Stephen Crowley wrote in the leftist American publication.
About the Author
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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