A Russia-NATO War Could Begin in 5 Years

Key Points – NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned on Monday that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO member state within “five years,” citing Moscow’s burgeoning domestic arms production and intent to maintain a large post-war military.

-Speaking at Chatham House in London, Rutte confirmed he expects allied leaders to commit to a new 5% of GDP defense spending target.

-This plan, influenced by US pressure, includes a fivefold increase in air defense spending and massive boosts in tank and artillery shell production.

-The warning comes as Russia continues to demand a halt to all future NATO eastward expansion, specifically targeting countries like Georgia.

NATO Warns Russia Could Invade In “Five Years”

During a speech in London on Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte indicated that Russia could be set to attack NATO within “five years.”

The news comes as Rutte confirms that leaders of the Western alliance will commit to increasing defense expenditure to 5% GDP.

Under Rutte’s plans, unquestionably influenced by pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, NATO countries would implement a fivefold increase in spending on air defenses, invest in thousands more tanks and dramatically increase production and purchases of artillery shells to boost their dwindling stockpiles.

The NATO leader specifically warned that the alliance was falling behind Russia’s domestic manufacturing of weapons and ammunition, setting Russia’s ever-increasing production levels as a goal for member states to match.

“I expect allied leaders to agree to spend 5% of GDP on defence,” Rutte said in a Chatham House speech, specifying that 3.5% would go towards core military spending.

An additional 1.5% will be spent on additional defense-related infrastructure, including new roads, bridges, and railways.

Rutte also stressed his view that the Kremlin will not demilitarize even if the war in Ukraine comes to an end, either through a negotiated deal or victory on the battlefield.

The news comes as reports suggest that Russia plans to maintain an active military of over 600,000 personnel when the Ukraine war ends, and a 6.5% GDP defense spending goal.

Where Might Russia Invade?

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated demands for NATO to commit to ceasing its eastward expansion offer an insight into the territories that Moscow may consider a next step once the war in Ukraine, eventually, comes to an end.

Throughout the conflict and before, Putin has requested a written guarantee from NATO and the United States to prevent new countries in Eastern Europe from joining NATO, including Ukraine.

In May, Moscow outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, including a demand  that Western leaders prevent Ukraine from joining the military alliance.

Among the other countries Moscow wants to prevent from joining the alliance are Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the rest of the South Caucasus.

The demands, however, conflict with Georgia’s longstanding aim of joining NATO. Meeting Putin’s demands would require NATO to backtrack from its promise to Ukraine that it would eventually become a member, presumably once the war ends, along with a pledge at a NATO summit in Bucharest that Georgia would also be put on a path to membership.

Reneging on those pledges will be difficult for NATO, with Georgia having enshrined its goal into its constitution, and Kyiv working heavily towards incorporating the funding of its military into NATO’s long-term military spending plans.

In 2008, Putin said that Russia would carry out “steps of a different nature” if Georgia joined NATO, implying the possibility of a future Russian military operation in the country.

Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have also said that they would “spare no efforts” to prevent Georgia’s NATO accession.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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