Key Points and Summary – South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is warning that relations with North Korea have entered a “very dangerous” phase, with all communication lines cut and new layers of barbed wire going up along the border for the first time since the Korean War.
-Despite offering talks without preconditions, Lee’s outreach has been rejected and mocked by Pyongyang, even as DPRK troops stage repeated incursions across the Demilitarized Zone.
Republic of Korea army soldiers assigned to 5th Engineer Brigade, pull security on the K1 tank while it moves across M3 bridge vehicle as part of Freedom Shield 25/Combined Wet Gap Crossing training March 20, 2025 in South Korea. This training was intended to boost combat readiness between the U.S. and ROK Army. (U.S. Army photo by Pfc. Wilfred Salters)
-Tensions are further inflamed by U.S.–ROK plans for nuclear-powered submarines, which the North brands a “nuclear domino.”
-Lee insists Seoul will keep pushing for dialogue, but admits accidental conflict is now a real risk.
ROK President Warns of Potential Imminent Hostilities With North Korea
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – On Monday of this week, South Korean (ROK) President Lee Jae Myung said that his country and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in the North are in a “very dangerous situation” where an accidental clash is possible at any time.
Seoul needed to engage Pyongyang in dialogue, the South Korean President said, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
The crisis has arisen, according to Lee, because the DPRK is refusing to answer Seoul’s calls to establish contact and reinitiate dialogue between the two Koreas.
On the DPRK side, soldiers have also been putting up barbed wire fences along the military border.
This latter act increases the severity of the barrier separating the two nations.
Constructing these kinds of barriers had reportedly not been ordered since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, Lee was quoted as saying.
Lee had taken several steps to roll back tensions between the two Koreas since he assumed office in June. He had even proposed discussions with the DPRK without any preconditions.
A Change In Orientation
Lee’s conciliatory position stands in contrast to his confrontational and hawkish conservative predecessor.
He had made gestures of goodwill and attempted to rebuild a dialogue with the North, but these have been ignored and denounced in official propaganda from Pyongyang.
Kim Yo-jong, who is a senior official of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party and the sister of the current DPRK dictator, Kim Jong-un, unceremoniously brushed aside these invitations by the ROK president as far back as August, calling them a “shabby, deceptive farce.”
F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 35th and 80th Fighter Squadrons of the 8th Fighter Wing, Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea; the 421st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron of the 388th FW at Hill Air Force Base, Utah; the 55th EFS from the 20th FW at Shaw Air Force Base, S.C.; and from the 38th Fighter Group of the ROK Air Force, demonstrate an “Elephant Walk” as they taxi down a runway, during an exercise at Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, March 2, 2012. The exercise showcased Kunsan Air Base aircrews’ capability to quickly and safely prepare an aircraft for a wartime mission. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“Inter-Korean relations have, regrettably, turned very hostile and confrontational,” Lee told reporters on a flight from South Africa, where he had attended the G20 summit, and at the time was on his way to Turkey.
“There is not even the most basic level of trust, and North Korea is making extremely extreme statements and taking extremely extreme actions,” he said.
He again pointed to recent incidents in which the DPRK installed triple layers of barbed wire along the border.
“We have now reached a situation where we do not know when an accidental clash may occur,” said Lee.
“All lines of connection have been cut. They are refusing all dialogue and contact. It is a very dangerous state,” he added. Lee did say that despite worsening relations, Seoul would continue attempts to initiate communications with the North.
The recently elected president explained that the South was “always open” to re-opening the channels of interaction that had existed before his predecessor.
“Why do we exchange and talk with every other country but not with North Korea? Now let us exchange. And we support the normalization of relations,” he said.
The Nuclear Domino Effect
On 17 November, the ROK proposed military talks with the DPRK to establish a clearly defined boundary along the Military Demarcation Line.
Seoul stated that this would prevent clashes that could escalate into a wider conflict. It was also the first such offer from the South in some seven years.
But one of the more recent actions that has provoked the DPRK into a more recalcitrant stance is the decision by the US to assist the ROK in building new submarines powered by a nuclear propulsion system.
The nuclear-armed North has denounced this agreement between Seoul and Washington to build nuclear-powered submarines, saying in a state-controlled media commentary that the deal would cause a “nuclear domino” effect due to the countries’ “confrontational intention.”
Pyongyang has condemned military exercises between the ROK and US forces on the peninsula and has called them dress rehearsals for a nuclear war against the DPRK.
About 28,500 US troops and weapons systems are stationed in South Korea at present.
There have also been more than 10 border intrusions by DPRK soldiers this year, some of which ended with ROK troops firing warning shots under an established set of protocols.
For his part, Lee said winning peace with the DPRK would be a long-term effort, but when a firm peace regime is established, “it would be better” for South Korea and the US to curtail or eliminate their joint military drills.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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