Key Points and Summary – Following a recent Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, analysis suggests Hamas’s last refuge, Turkey, could be next.
-The central thesis is that Turkey’s NATO membership will not provide protection from an Israeli attack. An Israeli strike could be framed as legitimate self-defense against a state sponsor of terror, and a collective NATO response under Article V is not automatic.
Israel’s F-35I Adir Fighter. Image credit: Creative Commons
-It could be vetoed by key members like the United States, or even Sweden and Finland, who hold grudges against Ankara.
-Turkey is not the safe haven Hamas believes it to be.
After Qatar, Who’s Next? NATO Won’t Protect Turkey from an Israeli Strike
Israeli forces attacked Hamas targets in Qatar, a Persian Gulf emirate that has financed Hamas and incited terrorism against both Israel and the United States. Hamas leaders have called Doha home, believing that Qatar’s role as a mediator would shield terror leaders from accountability.
They were wrong. Not only does it look like the Israeli Defense Forces used airstrikes rather than more deniable covert action, but Washington whispers suggest they also coordinated with the White House.
Many American diplomats have long looked at Hamas as an inconvenience in their efforts to advance the peace process. Too often, European diplomats (and former Secretary of State John Kerry) have approached Hamas as a potential partner. Israel understands that Hamas represents an existential threat; they acted accordingly.
Given Israel’s assessment of Hamas, it stands to reason that Israel will continue to target the group wherever it might seek shelter.
Beyond Hamas? Turkey Could Be Next
Nor is Hamas alone. Following the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre, Israel hunted down its perpetrators across Europe and the Middle East. After the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) murdered three Israelis in Cyprus, Israeli jets flew 1,280 miles to bomb the PLO headquarters in Tunisia, which, like Qatar, had a foot in both camps even if, like Qatar, it had no formal relations with Israel.
Hamas leaders now understand that not only is Gaza itself is no safe haven, but Tehran and Doha provide no shelter.
Their last refuge is Turkey. Hamas long ago established offices in Istanbul not only to coordinate with Turkey, but also to launder cash and plan attacks.
NATO Won’t Save Them
Both Hamas and Turkey may believe Turkey’s NATO membership offers immunity that Gaza, Iran, and Qatar did not. Qatar may have been a Major Non-NATO Ally, but it was not NATO.
It had no NATO Article V, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Turkey and Hamas should take care, however. NATO is a consensus-driven organization, and seldom are decisions cut-and-dry. Sweden and Finland resent the Turkish extortion and blackmail that accompanied their accession to the defense alliance when Turkey humiliated them by demanding they constrain civil liberties and freedoms for Turkish dissidents and their Kurdish minority, and, in Sweden’s case, even extradite a Kurdish activist. A veto in Stockholm or Helsinki is a plausible option.
So too is a Washington veto, notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s close personal and business ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Self-defense provisions do not apply to an aggressor. If Turkey acts by terrorist proxy—and that is what Hamas effectively is—then Turkey essentially fired the first shot, and Israel is right to respond.
An Israeli Air Force pilot walks to an F-35I Adir prior to a Red Flag-Nellis 23-2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 15, 2023. Red Flag is an opportunity to build on the success of JUNIPER OAK 23-2, JUNIPER FALCON, and additional combined exercises to enhance interoperability with Israel, strengthen bilateral cooperation, and improve capabilities in ways that enhance and promote regional stability and reinforce the United States’ enduring commitment to Israel’s security. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Trevor Bell)
The Poles tell a joke. If forced to shoot at both a German and a Russian, whom would they target first? The answer: The German. The reason: Business before pleasure. As Erdoğan increases his anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric and transforms Turkey into a state sponsor of terror, the same joke might apply for Israel, but with Qatar and Iran substituting for Germany, and Turkey playing the role of Iran.
If Turks are wise, they will either extradite Hamas now or, for their own safety, stay at least 150 feet from any structure hosting Hamas.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The opinions and views expressed are his own. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. The views expressed are the author’s own.
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Ahmet Kantar
September 9, 2025 at 3:07 pm
We are waiting for Israel and its allies. Let’s try to launch an attack or bring your planes closer to the border. Let’s see what happens.
B. Lerner
September 9, 2025 at 3:10 pm
It seems unlikely Israel would attack Turkey without the consent of the White House.
I agree with all the reservations, above, about lack of passionate support for Turkey in the rest of NATO. Indeed, it’s even worse, for Turkey than cited. Greece is not mentioned, and there is no country more opposed to and scared of Turkey than Greece. Turkey continues to make major territorial claims on the Greek islands in the Aegean and their associated territorial and economic zones. Other issues include Erdogans repeated use of allowing large numbers of ME “refugees” (who, wouldn’t you know, tend to be heavily composed of military age single
men) through Turkey into Europe as pressure in various Turkish-European political disagreements.
Nevertheless, I don’t see Jerusalem risking a hard break with the US over a direct attack on anyone on Turkish territory unless they have reason to believe that Washington won’t go ballistic over it.
FWIW, if there are still American nuclear weapons on American bases in
Turkey, I’d watch what happens to them, and to, at the least, American dependents in Turkey for clues that the topic is on the table and that
Washington has not immediately shot the proposal down.
Jim
September 9, 2025 at 3:25 pm
I understand a Turkish military instillation has already been hit in Syria.
No, NATO action is unnecessary and dangerous, it’s out of NATO’s area of interest and concern.
But still, it’s troubling. Syria is a hodgepodge of differing agendas (hopes, fears and ambitions), and seemingly nothing’s off the table in a contest of stratagems with various levels of commitment, will & skill.
A swirling vortex of violence & force of arms with little restraint. Which the interested parties knew would happen upon the fall of Assad, but they did it anyway.
The gloves are off in the Middle East and maybe the mask, too…
… it’s a naked jungle out there…
Markar Melkonian
September 10, 2025 at 1:30 pm
This writer produces Hasbara. There are thousands of them out there, well-funded. Their effort is to distract from the on-going genocide in Gaza, and the unprecedented war-mongering and slaughter that America’s surrogates are conducting across the Middle East. So far this year, Israel has repeatedly bombed no fewer than six countries, not including occupied Palestine, and not including the recent bombing in Qatar. Six countries repeatedly bombed this year alone. Tens of thousands killed. Tens of thousands maimed. Millions displaced. Tens of millions terrorized. Infrastructures destroyed. Hundreds deliberately starved to death. With our tax money, and in our name. Friends of Israel have made tens of millions of new enemies of America in 2025. Meanwhile, the recipients of tens of billions of dollars of US taxpayer money show their gratitude by lying to the American people, surveiling them, destroying their first ammendment rights, and defunding our universities.