Key Points and Summary – President Donald Trump has issued a new 10-day deadline for Vladimir Putin to halt the war in Ukraine, threatening sanctions if Russia fails to comply.
-However, instead of de-escalating, Russia appears to be preparing for a “protracted” war, potentially against NATO.
-According to intelligence officials and analysts cited in the report, Moscow is increasing defense spending by a reported $1.1 trillion over 11 years and changing its laws to allow for year-round military conscription.
-These actions suggest the Kremlin’s strategy is to outlast Western support, creating a direct standoff with Trump’s ultimatum.
Is Russia Preparing for a Possible NATO Conflict?
United States President Donald Trump has now given a new deadline to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, telling him he has as few as 10 days to end his war in Ukraine.
What the American head of state wants to see is the Russian military standing down, preparing to withdraw its troops to positions inside of Russia, and for the war of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities to stop.
However, instead of scaling back the hostilities, the former KGB lieutenant colonel is intensifying the intensity of Russia’s wartime economy. The latest initiatives include an increase in defense spending and revisions to the laws governing the mobilization of additional military manpower.
Russia-watchers now assess that these changes are clear signals that the Kremlin is preparing to support a “protracted” war. This war, they say, will not stop at the borders of Ukraine but will instead be an all-out effort to engage all of NATO in a full-on military conflict.
On July 22, the lower chamber of the Duma, Russia’s parliament, submitted a bill proposing “to change the approach to the conscription of citizens for military service and establish that the conscription of citizens for military service is carried out during the calendar year,” according to the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent.
Correlation of Forces
The same day, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, told an annual gathering of Ukrainian Ambassadors that Moscow plans to add $1.1 trillion to its military and defense spending over the next 11 years.
This, he concluded, is all in preparation for a large-scale war that will last for years.
“There is a total mobilization of politics, economy, and society of the Russian Federation to be ready for the upcoming large-scale war,” Budanov stated last week.
Budanov also reported that Russia has created two new military districts, one in Moscow and another in Leningrad, as part of these new measures to solidify Putin’s plan for what is being called military “reform.”
These new military districts are, as Russian military experts are assessing, warning signs that Russia is preparing for war with all of NATO.
“All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO,” Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia deputy team lead and analyst at the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia’s existing system for mobilizing military manpower involves two annual conscription drives each year. The current draft actions are implemented once in the spring and again in the fall. However, if the new bill becomes law, mobilization of military manpower will become a year-round state of affairs, according to the Kyiv paper, which also managed to obtain a copy of the new Russian legislation that will be up for a vote in the parliament.
Trying to Outlast the West
This bill’s chances of being voted into law are incredibly high, according to the Ukrainian defense expert Denys Popovych, who said if the bill is passed, the year-round conscription drive could “be considered a stealth mobilization.”
Stepanenko, when asked by the Kyiv Independent about the rationale for the 11-year timeline, said Putin does not want to risk provoking citizen demonstrations with a sudden “pivot” on the mobilization issue. Russia, she said, believes it is possible to outlast western aid with patience – and without stirring up the populace.
“So, the Kremlin is taking a long-term approach,” she said. “The Kremlin’s theory of victory is that it can outlast Western support and Ukrainian resistance,” Stepanenko continued.
Since the beginning of the war in 2022, Russia has lost over 1 million troops, according to assessments by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, adding that on July 29 alone, Putin’s military lost over 1000 soldiers in just one day.
Stepanenko’s warning was issued as Trump scaled back his deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.
On Monday, Trump had set this new deadline of “10 or 12 days” for Putin to take steps to end the war in Ukraine or risk consequences. This was a significant scaling back of his original deadline of 50 days.
“There’s no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is going to be, why wait? And it would be sanctions and maybe tariffs, secondary tariffs,” Trump said during a trip to Scotland, after saying he was “disappointed” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I don’t want to do that to Russia. I love the Russian people.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev later responded to Trump over his reduced deadline for the country to take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine, warning that each new ultimatum is a “threat” and a step towards war.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Swamplaw Yankee
August 3, 2025 at 4:52 am
WOW! 10 days to change the world! Can the WEST actually find a leader that has the victory of the WEST as the prime goal! We all know that MAGA POTUS Trump has abdicated that position and is not suitable to negotiate for a Victory for the WEST, that is, a Victory for Ukraine.
11 Years: it has been 11 years since POTUS Obama’s Democrat Cabal unilaterally greenlighted in 2014 the loss of the WEST’s geopolitical advantage in owning the Ukraine’s Crimean soil, families and Black/Azov Sea zones to the prime vile cold war enemy of the WEST: Moscow’s Putin. A marxist POTUS gives the commies what they wanted for all of the cold war.
In 10 short days the MAGA POTUS Trump has to self-motivate himself to lay down the minimum action expected of Putin! Can Trump find it within himself to actually deflect the inner motivations of the muscovite tsarling regime to the reality of the WEST’s need to get back what Obama gifted, free, at no-cost to the commie leftie-pinkoe captive nation empire!
Trump needs to demand that all illegally occupied Ukrainian soil illegally occupied by Putin’s orc muscovite predators be fully vacated by the predators! Again, can Trump self-motivate himself as if he, Trump, was still the leader of the WEST?
Trump needs to demand that Putin’s rump russia immediately pre-pay $10,000,000 in US gold bullion to each and every Ukrainian mass abduction victim as compensation and reparation before any code words of scam deflection are spoken: “peace” “Cease fire” etc.
That pre-payment does not need to wait 10 days. Trump can stop the war in two days if Trump demands the pre-payment for just the first 30,000 victims of $10,000,000 in gold bullion. Demand that for each and every Ukrainian victim and see the war come to a fizzling end. These victims need help and it is crazy to expect that 11 years of free, no-cost, child abuse could even be considered as a position that Trump would take. Trump needs to quickly show Putin the art of the Deal, a Deal that compensates 11 years of vile child abuse by the rump russian ethnic group. =30=
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Rob Vettese
August 8, 2025 at 1:43 am
?? You are really in support of this hegemonic warmongering, Military aggressiveness & interventionist, conquerors mentality!?? This conflict is getting worse and out of control more and more every day that it continues. It must stop! These great power competition games, geopolitical rivalries, the manipulative, propagandistic, militaristic and strategically induced conflicts, instigation and over exaggerated threats by greedy, corrupt, self serving political, military, corporate elitists and oligarchs that only care about themselves, their own interests, wealth, status, power, control, dominance and privilege.
Trump needs to be firm and stern with Putin yes but focus on real serious and genuine diplomacy, soft power, negotiations and political dialogue and trust the process backed up with more potential economic sanctions, restrictions and pressure if a must also an open mind in regards to Russias legitimate national security, sovereignty, geopolitical, energy, economic and territorial concerns and interests! And (have to) entertain the idea of a peaceful political solution and legally binding settlement that includes security guarantees for both parties, but specifically a 1. anti-NATO neutrality pact proclaiming Ukraine won’t seek membership & the general issue of NATO alliance’s ambitions, function & expansionism. 2.And Ukrainian demobilization, disarmament, demilitarization and 3.removal of all US & NATO personnel & most long range MLRS, ATACM’s and ballistic missiles, leaving behind only air defense systems. 4.And also the reversal & evacuation of Russian occupational forces, laws & policies & de-annexation of the eastern Donbas region. 5.Also a comprehensive plan and joint deal for shared access to critically important resources and minerals. 6.Reconstruction and restoration efforts & possible Russian reparations, compensation and financial assistance towards Ukraines damages, rebuilding of infrastructure, energy grid, industrial & agricultural sectors and overall economic recovery 7.This is highly unlikely but possible Russian political input on Ukraines post-war administrative governance or installment of a pro Russian political party, policies (or removal of anti Russian politicians) & 8.more important is its sociopolitical & diplomatic relations. 9.A Possible joint or multinational peace keeping force, demilitarized zones in the Donbas. 10. Lastly reinstatement of their previous or general and newly contracted mining, exploration, extraction, trade, commerce & investment agreements, energy & infrastructure projects and economic cooperation or other services or developmental initiatives.
Russian economic, security, n their energy supply and security interests must be respected and protected.