When Elon Musk shut down Russia’s access to his Starlink satellite internet system, it caused, as several military analysts said at the time, more problems for the Russian military than its leadership would like to admit.
Several of them described to The Moscow Times just how much Russia’s wartime operations suffered.
Putin in June 2016 Image Credit Russian Federation Photo
Putin Back in 2015 Russian Federation Photo
“The loss of part of their communications created disorganization within the Russian army,” the Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak told The Moscow Times. “Infantry units ended up in an information bubble where they cannot understand what is happening to their left or right, while drones cannot transmit data in real time.”
Ukrainian units capitalized on the confusion in the Russian chain of command.
Kyiv’s forces ended up taking more territory than they lost in the last two weeks of February.
These were also the first real territorial gains since 2023, the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
At the same time, advances by Russian forces stalled and dropped off significantly.
Before Musk cut Moscow off from his satellite network, Russian military bloggers reported that drones equipped with Starlink connections were used by Russia in January.
During this time, they struck Ukrainian supply vehicles that were as far away as 50 kilometers from the front line in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
In early February, when SpaceX blocked unauthorized devices operating in Russian-occupied areas, Ukraine telecoms operators also worked with SpaceX to implement a “whitelisting” system that disconnected unregistered terminals – further cutting off any remaining access by Moscow.
Russia Starts Up Its Own Network
In an attempt to compensate for the disadvantage, Russia is rolling out its own version of the Starlink satellite internet system and is doing so faster than had been expected.
Moscow now plans to have nearly 300 satellites in orbit by 2027, according to a Ukrainian intelligence official.
By operating in Ukraine but providing no connectivity in Russia, SpaceX has given Kyiv a major leg up in both drone operations and battlefield communications.
Launching their own satellites is the only way that Moscow sees it can equalize the battlefield conditions and take away Ukraine’s advantage.
Russian forces had been using gray-market Starlink terminals in Ukraine until earlier this year when then-Defense Minister Mykhailo Federov personally lobbied SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to disable Russia’s access to the system. This was one of several factors that shifted the battlefield momentum in Ukraine’s favor.
But Russia is now aggressively getting its own system into position above the Earth.
In an interview with the Ukrainian media outlet RBC-Ukraine, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said Russia currently has 16 satellites in its Rassvet system in orbit.
“They have already begun launching it much faster than originally planned,” said Skibitskyi, who is the deputy head of Ukraine’s GUR Defense Intelligence Service.
Plans To Expand
With this limited number of satellites, the Russian system can currently operate only intermittently when one of its satellites is over Ukrainian territory, he said.
But he added that Russia now plans to create a much-expanded constellation of 292 satellites by 2027 and then totaling 924 by 2035.
“Once Russia deploys a full satellite constellation, the system will operate like Starlink. Discussions [within the HUR] are already underway on how to counter it,” he said.
As of late, Russia has been hitting Ukraine at will with a mix of supersonic missiles because Kyiv has run out of its stock of interceptor missiles.
Skibitskyi also said Moscow had already met its annual production targets for Zircon and Oniks missiles during the first seven months of the year.
Russia is now exceeding its 2026 missile production goals, from 10 percent above quota to 20 percent over previous targets.
He also explained that Ukraine’s own ballistic missile industry, along with drone production facilities, has now become a priority target for Russia’s missile campaign.
Skibitskyi explained that Russia’s stockpiles of its Iskander-M ballistic missiles, the most common weapon used in its supersonic strikes, are estimated at around 130, with 65 new missiles produced in July.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
