Military analysts often look at the various conflicts around the world in a vacuum and fail to realize that the combination of these hot and cold wars is the real problem. The “Axis of Evil 2.0” is alive and well and appears to be causing World War Three.
China continues to harass Taiwan and the Philippines. Russia invaded Ukraine. North Korea is in an escalating state of Cold War against South Korea. Iran will not give up against the United States.
China Aircraft Carriers. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Clunked By the ‘CRINKs’
All of the aggressors – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, sometimes called the “CRINKs,” seem to have taken over the world.
It is not a formal alliance yet, but consider these countries to be “doomsday teammates” who want to stick it to the West and dominate their neighbors.
Taken together, the CRINKs are a problem that few strategists have been able to solve.
CRINKs Are Not That Dominant
But there are signs that the CRINKs are losing some influence. Ukraine has seized the initiative and has newfound momentum against Russia with Kyiv’s world-leading drone program.
Volodymyr Zelensky has used unmanned bombardment to strike deep into Russia and flatten oil refineries that have taken 20 to 40 percent of the country’s oil processing facilities offline.
This is causing fuel shortages and gas lines in Russia – bringing the war to the doorstep of the majority of its citizens.
North Korea is still belligerent as ever and is not about to give up its expanding nuclear weapons program, but its new partnership with Russia has been as fruitful as once thought.
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade, and soldiers from the Kuwait Land Forces fire their High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (U.S.) and BM-30 Smerch rocket systems (Kuwait) during a joint live-fire exercise, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. James Lefty Larimer)
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the Blackhawk Battery, 1st Battalion, 14th Field Artillery Regiment, 75th Field Artillery Brigade, fire an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System during a night live fire training as part of Exercise Spring Storm 23 held at Camp Tapa, Estonia, May 25, 2023. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Agustín Montañez)
The North Koreans sent around 14,000 troops to the Kursk region to fight Ukraine. They were picked off like fish in a barrel and were not that decisive. A huge supply of North Korean howitzer shells has not given Russia a winning advantage on the battlefield.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are close friends, but China has not sent bona fide arms systems to Russia.
There are a small number of dual-use technologies that Beijing has made available to Moscow, but these have not turned the tide of battle. The Russia-China alliance may be more symbolic than a global threat.
Iran Rises to the Top
One could say that of all the CRINKs, Iran is playing the best hand. While suffering much destruction from air strikes at the hands of the United States, Tehran is still alive and kicking.
The Iranians have waged war on global oil and commercial shipping with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
They have sent deadly drones and ballistic missiles at U.S. allies in the Gulf. These actions have kept the price of oil elevated, hurting consumers in America and in Europe.
Ukraine Strikes Back Against Russia
A pair of defense analysts believe that the CRINKs and their influence have been undermined by the extraordinary performance of Ukraine against Russia.
Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet, writing in The Hill, give much credit to Zelensky’s leadership.
Toth and Sweet pointed out in their op-ed that the Ukrainian leader grasped the global implications of Russia’s invasion early.
Zelensky’s ability as a strategist was key to not only his country’s defensive success against Vladimir Putin, but it came with an even better outcome – the prevention of World War Three.
“Ukraine, chiefly on its own, using a wide assortment of asymmetrical kinetic means, is no longer fighting a long, losing defensive battle.
Rather, it is dealing the decisive blow that may help to win the global war that much of the Western world still fails to recognize is being waged against it,” according to Toth and Sweet.
Sounding the Clarion Call
Zelensky tried to rally the world’s strongest countries to realize that a global war could come if Russia were to invade his country.
He saw the struggle as one of good versus evil and that if the United States and its allies could not help, they could see malign actors rising up throughout the world.
Zelensky said the coming conflict would be the “biggest security crisis since the Cold War.”
“The Ukrainian president reiterated this just months ago, on the fourth anniversary of the start of the war.
Zelensky said that Putin ‘has already started World War Three.’ Zelensky added that he believes ‘stopping Putin today and preventing him from occupying Ukraine is a victory for the whole world,’” Toth and Sweet wrote.
Ukraine Played a Pivotal Role in Trimming the CRINKs’ Power, So has Ukraine prevented World War Three? Yes and No.
Russia is definitely less powerful. China has not invaded Taiwan, and there is still peace on the Korean peninsula.
However, war is raging in the Middle East due to the Americans’ unforced error and strategic misfire against Iran.
In fact, the regime may have gained confidence playing defense while watching the Russians struggle against Ukraine.
The CRINKs are still strong, but they could have been more belligerent if Zelensky had been overthrown quickly. Russian victory would have emboldened China and North Korea.
The United States may not have attacked Iran, and Operation Epic Fury would have remained on the drawing board.
But without the bravery and effectiveness of the Ukrainian military, the world would have recoiled in fright that a member of the Axis of Evil 2.0 like Russia snuffed out democracy in Eastern Europe.
We obviously don’t have World War Three, and we can thank Zelensky for that.
Now the United States and Iran must choose the path to peace, and one could say then that the chances of a full-throated global conflict have been finally curtailed.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
