Key Points and Summary – Russia is brutally escalating its summer offensive in Ukraine for two key reasons: weather and political pressure.
-The dry summer ground provides a final window for large-scale armored advances before the autumn “rasputitsa” season turns the battlefield into an impassable sea of mud.
-At the same time, President Trump’s looming sanctions deadline is forcing Vladimir Putin’s hand.
-He is trying to seize as much territory as possible now, in a bloody race against the clock, to ensure he negotiates from a position of maximum strength if forced to the peace table.
Ukraine War: Why Russia’s “Summer Offensive” Is Stepping Up
Russian forces are taking full advantage of the summer, continuing to escalate their already brutal summer offensive against Ukrainian forces, reinforcing strongholds and making gains through small, consistent advances.
On Wednesday night, hundreds of Iranian Shahed drones and missiles were launched at Ukraine’s capital, killing more than a dozen – including a six-year-old boy.
CNN reported this week that over a period of four days, its on-the-ground reporters saw a “swift change in control of territory” in some of the most embattled towns in the Donetsk region.
“Russian drones were able to penetrate deep into areas Kyiv’s forces once relied upon as oases of calm, and troops struggled to find the personnel and resources to halt a persistent enemy advance,” the report explains.
Russia’s Ukraine Hurry Up Strategy Explained
But why is Russia stepping up in Ukraine now? Well, besides the pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, it’s all about the weather.
Mud is a nightmare for soldiers. Ukraine’s twice-yearly rasputitsa, the “season of bad roads,” occurs in the spring and autumn.
Fields and roads effectively turn into soup, making it difficult for regular vehicles to pass – let alone heavy armored vehicles. Summer’s dry ground, meanwhile, makes movement easier. Trucks can move again, units can disperse, commanders can consider multi-axis pushes, and soldiers are less likely to freeze to death at night while attempting to advance into new territories.
Pressure from Washington should not, however, be understated here. Weather is one thing, but Putin also faces economic pressure from incoming new sanctions from the Trump administration, as well as a looming recession.
While the Russian president may be willing to fight this war for as long as he can, it’s unclear exactly how long he can fight it.
Putin is reportedly confident he can continue for some time, and Western analysts largely agree – but there’s no telling what will happen between now and next week, let alone what might happen by the time rasputitsa comes around again.
While it seems unlikely at this stage that Putin will be ready to accept a negotiated peace deal mediated by Washington, it’s not entirely out of the question.
Suppose the Kremlin finds itself in a position whereby a peace deal is the only answer, particularly later in the year when ground conditions are too poor to make the same kind of rapid advances they’re making now.
In that case, it will need to enter those discussions from a position of strength.
Gains made in the summer are less likely to be reversed in the winter; so in other words, it’s now or never.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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