Key Points and Summary: Responding to Russia’s aggression and growing doubts about U.S. security commitments, Poland has announced a dramatic overhaul of its defense posture.
-Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed that Warsaw plans to gain access to nuclear weapons and is in “serious talks” with France about its nuclear umbrella.
-Furthermore, Poland will institute universal military training for every adult male, modeled on the Israeli system, with the goal of creating a 500,000-strong trained force.
-These historic moves signal a major strategic shift as Poland prepares to counter threats from Moscow with less reliance on its traditional allies.
Poland Wants Nuclear Weapons in a Direct Challenge to Russia
WARSAW, POLAND – Here in Poland, Monday’s White House summit between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and a host of European leaders has not convinced anyone that it is time to drop their guard.
On the contrary, the threat from Russia’s continued aggression against its neighbor, Ukraine, prompted the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to make two significant announcements about Poland’s new defense posture to the Sejm, the country’s parliament.
Poland Has a Big Ask: Access to Nuclear Weapons
The first piece of news is that the country plans to gain ‘access’ to nuclear weapons.
This is a step that local defense experts have predicted for over a decade.
Poland’s thinking about the need for a nuclear arsenal became far more pronounced after the 2014 invasions by Russia of Ukraine’s Crimea region and the Donbas oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Tusk made the point that in the current circumstances, Poland cannot restrict itself solely to conventional weapons.
He brought up the example of Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear arsenal with the fall of the USSR, but more than two decades later found itself being invaded by Russia.
“We must be aware that Poland must reach for the most modern capabilities also related to nuclear weapons and modern unconventional weapons … this is a race for security, not for war,” he said.
Tusk also revealed that Poland “is talking seriously” with France about coming under the cover of the French nuclear umbrella.
President Emmanuel Macron has proposed the possibility of engaging with other countries on how France’s nuclear deterrent can protect Europe.
A New “Big, Beautiful Military”
It was also announced that Poland will institute a system similar to the Israeli model, where every male will be required to participate in a comprehensive program of military training.
The goal of the universal military preparedness program is to create a Polish military of 500,000 trained and mission-ready personnel.
This would present a military of a formidable size, one necessary to deter Russia and prevent an unprovoked invasion of Poland, as has already happened to Ukraine.
“By the end of the year, we want to have a model ready so that every adult male in Poland is trained for war, and so that this reserve is adequate for possible threats,” Tusk said. At 200,000 personnel, the Polish military is the third-largest of all the NATO nations after the US and Turkey – and it also the largest among the alliance’s EU members.
While an impressive number for a nation the size of Poland, Tusk contrasted the size of his military with Ukraine’s, which has an army of about 800,000.
Russia, however, has 1.3 million men under arms and since the invasion of Ukraine has proven that it has the capacity to mobilize new manpower at a staggering rate.
Russian success at taking back some of the territory it lost with Ukraine’s invasion of the Kursk oblast in August 2024 was only made possible by two acts of desperation on the part of Russian President Vladimir Putin. One was the importation of thousands of troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
The second is the continued use of convicts and persons under criminal investigation as a means of maintaining manpower levels.
Decreasing Reliance on the US
“Every healthy man should want to train to be able to defend the homeland in case of need. We will prepare it in such a way that it will not be a burden on people,” Tusk said.
The Polish PM continued by saying that women would also be able to volunteer, but that undergoing military training would not be obligatory because “war is still, to a greater extent, the domain of men.”
Tusk emphasized that this requirement for universal military training was not a revival of the conscription system, which Poland had disbanded in 2008.
But eliminating obligatory military service was a decision made in a time that was quite different from the situation that Poland and the rest of Europe find themselves in now.
Beyond Russia
The developments behind Tusk’s announcements are not just concerns about Russia’s expansionist aims and constant nuclear threats.
Added to the list of worries are questions about the reliability of Poland’s traditional alliance with the United States.
Concerns about just how far Washington would be prepared to go to support its European allies are causing a revolution in military planning.
“Poles will not adopt the philosophy that we are completely powerless and helpless, if President Trump has decided to adjust policy,” Tusk said. The likelihood that Trump might be reevaluating America’s commitments is regarded as a change in policy that Warsaw views as a potential existential threat.
Poland is basing its war plans based on what happened at the last White House meeting of Trump and Zelenskiy. This is the one where Zelenskyy was mercilessly badgered in the Oval Office, the one later followed by the US pausing delivery of arms aid to Ukraine.
Those incidents are added to Trump’s comments on other occasions that Washington may not fulfill its NATO obligations to protect members against attack if he regards their defense spending as inadequate.
The combination has caused the Poles to rethink much of their long-standing defense planning.
Yesterday’s White House meeting might have been a hopeful first step on a road to stopping the war in Ukraine and holding the Russians at arm’s length away from the Polish border, but for now, Warsaw is keeping their powder dry.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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