Putin’s Dangerous Game of Chicken with NATO in the Sky

Key Points and Summary – NATO fighters have scrambled three times in a week as Russian drones and reconnaissance aircraft prodded Baltic airspace and nearby corridors.

-After Polish jets and allies shot down drones that crossed Poland in September—triggering an Article 4 consult—recent incidents saw Il-20, Il-76, and Il-78 flights intercepted in international airspace without transponders or flight plans.

-Warsaw calls the incursions deliberate pressure; NATO has stopped short of Article 5 while pledging steady support to Ukraine.

-Meanwhile, Washington adjusts its Europe posture as leaders debate deterrence, escalation, and stamina. Bottom line: rapid-response intercepts are now routine—and the margin for error is shrinking.

NATO and Russia Headed to the Brink? 

Back in September, nearly two dozen Russian drones crossed into the airspace of Poland, and therefore into NATO’s airspace. Aircraft were scrambled by Poland and other NATO nations, resulting in the shooting down of multiple Russian drones, some of them by the Dutch Air Force.

This led to Poland invoking NATO’s Article 4, and the incident consisted of multiple firsts: The first time NATO had fired shots since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than four years earlier, and also the first time in the history of NATO that the alliance’s planes had fired on potential threats in enemy airspace.

In the months since, there have been a few other instances in which NATO jets have been scrambled in response to Russian planes or drones.

As reported by the Moscow Times, which cited Poland’s military, Polish fighter jets “intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the second day in a row amid heightened regional tensions,” at the end of October.

This time, though, the jet did not cross into Polish airspace.

The jet in question was a Russian Il-20.

“The aircraft, flying in international airspace without a filed flight plan and with its transponder turned off, was intercepted, identified, and escorted out of the area of responsibility. There was no violation of Polish airspace,” Poland’s military said, according to X’s translation of the original post.

More Strikes in October 

Then, per Newsweek, on October 30, Poland scrambled its fighter jets once again, this time after “Russia launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure overnight.”

At the time, Poland described the launches as “preventative” and that its forces  “remain ready for immediate response.”

As of Monday, NATO jets have been scrambled three times in the last week.

According to Euromaidan Press, which cited Lithuania’s Ministry of Defence, the first incident occurred on October 27.

” NATO aircraft took off to identify a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane flying through international airspace from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad Oblast,” the Euromaidan story said. “The aircraft was operating without an activated radar transponder and without a flight plan, though it maintained radio contact with the Regional Air Traffic Control Centre (RSVS).”

The following incident occurred two days later and involved an Il-78 tanker aircraft. Then, on the 30th, “NATO jets identified and escorted a Russian Il-76 transport aircraft, also flying from Kaliningrad Oblast to mainland Russia.”

This followed an incident on the 28th—presumably the one referred to above—in which “a pair of Polish MiG-29 fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 over the Baltic Sea.” That happened again two days later, when Polish MiG-29s were scrambled to intercept Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea.

What Will NATO Do? 

NATO, thus far, has not been treating incursions into NATO airspace, like the one in September, as violations of Article 5, which would require other NATO nations to go to war on behalf of the country that suffered the incursion.

But that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been tough talk.

In September, after the drone shootdown, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made it clear that he thinks the attack was intentional.

“Such incidents happened before, but this time our airspace was violated on purpose,” Sikorski said at the time, per Newsweek. “It was not a mistake. It was a 7-hours-long air operation. 21 drones. The Russian MOD says that this accident was a slip, and the Russian Ambassador to the UN claims that it was technically impossible for those drones to fly more than 700 km.”

Then there’s the response by U.S. President Donald Trump, in late September, when he stated that he believes that Ukraine can reclaim the territory that it has lost so far in the war.

It’s part of a continued back-and-forth, as Trump has at times seemed to back Ukraine’s war aims, while at other times has indicated that he thinks their war effort is hopeless and that they should agree to a peace agreement soon—one that would help Trump win the coveted Nobel Peace Prize.

A column by The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, also published in September, quoted some Ukrainian security officials who have been asking questions such as “What does this mean?” and “How long will this last?”

Trump at the time did say “yes, I do” when he was asked if NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft in their airspace, although he added that of the US itself, it “depends on the circumstance, but we’re very strong toward NATO.”

Around that time, The Guardian editorialized against Trump’s positions, stating that “the US president has repeatedly talked the talk without coming close to walking the walk,” in a way that does not appear to have deterred Putin in any particular way.

Most recently, on October 31, CBS News reported that NATO and some U.S. allies have “sought to ease concerns over the Trump administration’s move to reduce the US military’s presence in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine.” The US has announced that 700 U.S. troops, currently deployed in Germany, Romania, and Poland, will return home and not be replaced.

“Our NATO allies are meeting President Trump’s call to take primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe,” the Army said in a statement. “This force posture adjustment will not change the security environment in Europe.”

NATO and Ukraine 

So what’s the next step?

The NATO alliance, as reported by The BBC, “will stand with Ukraine up to the day in which we will have them sitting around the table for a long-lasting peace,” according to Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s military committee.

Dragone added that the war can still be considered a strategic failure for Putin, mainly since NATO has grown, with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance since the start of the war in 2022. In addition, NATO members have agreed to up their spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035.

“They will not get a friendly or puppet government like in Belarus,” the chair of the military committee added. “Putin will not succeed.”

About the Author: Stephen Silver

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

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