Key Point: Admitting Ukraine into NATO would be the only way to end Russian imperialism, secure Europe, and send a decisive message to the “Authoritarian Axis.”
NATO Must Admit Ukraine
WARSAW, POLAND – During NATO’s 75th anniversary commemoration in the summer of 2024, the organization’s senior leadership declared that Ukraine’s path to membership is “irreversible.”
But, as has been the case on almost every one of these occasions, the Transatlantic alliance once again would not take the next step of inviting Kyiv to join.
This is a pattern that continues to the point where, in the opinion of the Ukrainians and those who support their membership in the alliance, “where Ukraine still not being invited to the party is a feature of these NATO gatherings that has almost become formulaic,” said one Ukrainian defense official who spoke to National Security Journal.
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon assigned to the 510th Fighter Generation Squadron takes off during Exercise Anatolian Eagle 25 at the 3rd Main Jet Base, Konya, Türkiye, June 30, 2025. Through realistic multinational training, the 31st Fighter Wing enhances survivability, increases combat effectiveness and demonstrates that the U.S. and its Allies and partners are prepared to defend the homeland, deter aggression, and, if necessary, fight and win. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Zachary Jakel)
A B-52 Stratofortress assigned to the 5th Bomb Wing, Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, completes refueling behind a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 134th Air Refueling Wing, Tennessee Air National Guard, during exercise Saber Guardian 19, June 17, 2019. The bombers participated in three exercises in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, providing opportunities for training with our allies and partners. Strategic bomber missions enhance the readiness and training necessary to respond to any potential crisis or challenge across the globe. The USEUCOM, NATO exercise promotes regional stability and security while increasing readiness, strengthening partner capabilities and fostering trust. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Daniel Gagnon)
“The US Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act, which committed Washington to moving its embassy to the Israeli capital,” he continued. “However, the embassy did not actually relocate there until 2018. A total of 23 years of delay, which was due to each successive administration always continuing to renew an option that permitted the move to be deferred to the next administration for ‘national security reasons.’ Sometimes we get the idea that Ukraine’s NATO membership might be on a similarly torturous path,” he continued.
The collective takeaway from this event is that this is a “chronic condition” that continues to this day. There is still no consensus within NATO regarding Ukraine’s membership. Instead, the alliance is not only divided on the issue, but those divisions continue to increase.
As an Atlantic Council commentary noted at the time, this kind of intransigence continues at the peril of all member states, not just Ukraine.
The emergence of what has been called the “Authoritarian Axis” or “Axis of Upheaval”—the increasing cooperation between Russia, North Korea, Iran, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—has “helped underline the need for a decisive NATO response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Alliance members are acutely aware that China, in particular, is closely monitoring the NATO reaction to Moscow’s invasion, with any Russian success in Ukraine likely to fuel Beijing’s own expansionist ambitions in Taiwan and elsewhere.”
Reasons for Ukraine’s Inclusion in NATO
The Council’s commentary lays out five of the most important reasons for inviting Ukraine to join NATO. Most significant is that this would mark the end of Russia’s never-ending imperial ambitions in Ukraine.
A Turkish Air Force F-16 receives a mid air refuel from a NATO allied aircraft on Oct 23, 2018 during exercise Trident Juncture 18. Trident Juncture is a multinational NATO exercise that enhances professional relationships and improves overall coordination with Allied and partner nations. (photo by Nebil; Turkish Air Force)
This would be the clearest signal to send to Russian President Vladimir Putin that his obsession with erasing all signs of Ukraine as a nation and restoring the Russian Empire will never come to pass, forcing Russia to rethink its appropriate place in the international community.
A second, and most important, reason is that Ukraine now has Europe’s largest, most capable, and most innovative military. It has literally rewritten the book on how to neutralize a larger, more powerful, and resource-rich enemy.
This is the playbook that the US and the rest of NATO thought they had invented. Ukraine has re-invented it.
A third reason is that, with Ukraine a NATO member and not just a “partner” or a nation under a patchwork quilt of security guarantees, this would most likely prevent Russia from continuing its hostile activities in other European nations. The Kremlin seeks out such situations and exploits ambiguities in relations between members and non-members.
Having Ukraine in NATO would also demonstrate to Putin, as Sweden and Finland joining NATO did, that Russian aggression in Europe produces the exact opposite results that the former KGB Lt. Col. was hoping to achieve.
A fourth consideration is that Ukraine would be most likely the most committed and dedicated member of the alliance. Roughly three-quarters of Ukrainian citizens support NATO membership, a higher percentage than the populations of most long-time alliance states. Ukraine’s military has also made significant progress in reforming its structure and adopting interoperability and other NATO standards—again outpacing some existing NATO members.
The fifth point in the rationale for Ukraine’s NATO membership concerns the message the alliance would send to the international community. If a consensus can be reached to invite Ukraine into the alliance, this would dispel the cynicism and derision in the global community about NATO’s “weakness of NATO unity.”
Ukraine’s Symbolic Significance
The eventual outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on international relations around the world.
Many supporters of Ukraine’s NATO membership consistently point out that keeping the country in “geopolitical limbo is a mistake that only serves to embolden Moscow and prolong the war,” reads the Council’s report.
For more than three and a half years, Ukrainian troops have performed beyond expectations and inflicted tremendous losses on the Russian military. Russia was once regarded as the second-most-powerful military in the world.
But, as some of those watching the war point out, what Russia has now is only the “second-best military in Ukraine.” As a member of NATO, Ukraine would bolster Europe’s stability and security and help prevent another war.
They have fought brilliantly and have significantly weakened Russia’s military to the point where it may never recover. This may be the greatest gift NATO has ever received.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of the Asia Research Centre at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Jim
October 30, 2025 at 6:05 pm
While it’s controversial to state, as many disagree, the Russians stated their number one reason to invade was the threat of NATO expansion into Ukraine, although this is discounted by many Western analysts who claim the real reason was imperial expansion and reconstituting the Russian Empire.
Be that as it may, according to NATO protocol, prospective new members cannot be admitted if they are currently in an active conflict.
It seems many NATO members are intent to set aside their own protocol to achieve admittance of Ukraine as a NATO member.
But understand such action, while satisfying for some European leaders (and Zelensky), would be a red cape before the Russian bull (bear) and insure Russia continues the war with added intensity.
Question: if Ukraine was admitted into NATO mid conflict, would this then cause NATO states to jump directly into the war with active military personnel fighting at the front (or substantial behind the lines support) and NATO aircraft in the skies.
Do we want to do that?
Likely, it would lead to a dramatic escalation bordering on a larger European war.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 31, 2025 at 3:23 am
The WEST: who believes what the Kremlin ruuzzkies say? Who wants to see Lavrov pull out his redlines just to make American Government slip into pre-Joseph McCarthy lying/denial.
Yes, The WEST lacks a moral leader. Trump self-abdicated himself just weeks into his realm. As the EU evokes its own Quislings the USA just has no moral fibre to bring the POTUS Obama moral turpitude out for a high level hanging.
Why should the PRC CCP Xi regime hesitate? Reuben may claim it is an Axis of Upheaval – maybe. It may more closer be an Axis of Evil. Who knows the language of power?
The HAN has played cashier for their LONG GAME. The CCP put its cash into the creation of a huge military machine industrial complex. The CCP just allocates a few hundred million more or less to produce what ever they conceive that they need. Vassal Putin can attack the Baltics, Rumania Greece at the exact moment that Xi decrees. Are they going to do surrender talk or act defence?
Putin loses tanks to Ukrainian Fathers. Xi can rail freight their vassal another 2000 or 3000 tanks in a week. Who knows what gifts Xi is sending by air to Venuzuela and Cuba. The point: Xi shows off POTUS Trump as a heelspur General. Trump now hides the cowards face behind the death of Ukrainian Fathers. Trump is a slow thinker with zero ability to command the WEST to challenge + redirect the PRC CCP LONG GAME engine.
If a leader of the WEST, Trump would have out thought Xi with a way to redirect and redeploy Putin from his genetic ruuzzkie need to Genocide Ukrainians. Victory for Ukraine would have been victory for the WEST.
Trump could have claimed reparation for the 20,000,000 ukrainians Ruuzzkies killed in the HOLODOMOR. Trump could have high hung POTUS Obama for the 2014 betrayal of the WEST, NATO and Ukraine. Trump could have demanded the return of every square foot of illegally occupied Ukrainian soil. Trump just did not have the intelligence himself and worse, did not hire those who had the facts at hand to demolish the fake history of delusional Putin, Lavrov, et al. The show was painful, tragic to see that no one in the MAGA POTUS elite had the cognitive capacity to blow thru the Kremlin kleenex of ruuzzkie phleem.
So, the world watches as Trump grips his outdated military tech tightly, palms out Ukrainian soil to Kremlin thieves as if it was his, talks down to those in the WEST trapped in his realm of office and cowards his office of POTUS from the WW3 that the few Ukrainian Fathers left fight for instead of the average US citizen. -30-