Key Points and Summary – Russian drones briefly violated Polish airspace, triggering NATO interceptions and fears of escalation.
-An “error” is possible, but Russia’s experience, geography, and risk-taking history point to a deliberate gray-zone probe.
Putin on Direct Line Back in 2019. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The right response isn’t panic or premature Article 5—NATO badly outguns Russia. Instead, double down on resilience: constant ISR and combat air patrols, immediate shootdowns, cyber and undersea defenses, and proportional gray-zone counters.
-Europe has the economic weight to outspend and outlast Moscow while avoiding steps that risk miscalculation. Bottom line: treat the incursion as a test, answer it fast and firmly, and manage the escalation ladder on allied terms.
Putin’s Poland Gamble
This week, Russian drones entered Polish airspace. The Poles quickly shot them down, but Poland’s membership in NATO raises the possibility of Russian-NATO escalation if the incursion was deliberate.
It is unclear at this time if that was the case. NATO is assuming it was. Its leaders are publicly stating their commitment to Polish/NATO security, and they are widely decrying Russia as a growing threat to European security.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking a considerable risk, one likely to further encourage a European defense build-up.
Probably an Intentional Incursion
There is a slight possibility that this was an error. Putin is undoubtedly aware of the escalation risk with NATO. And he clearly knows that Russia is bogged down in the Ukraine war. Russia almost certainly does not have the military resources, financial space, or spare economic capacity to engage in militarized escalation with NATO. And it would obviously lose a war with NATO unless it used nuclear weapons.
An incursion that sparks a NATO alert or military build-up would not help Russia strategically.
Conversely, Russia has now flown drones over Ukraine for three years. Its operators know the relevant topography. Geographically, Ukraine and Belarus lie between Russia and Poland. It is hard to imagine Russian drone pilots directing their vehicles across hundreds of miles of known space erroneously.
And strategic arguments that Russia is woefully outweighed by NATO have not deterred Putin from ‘gray zone’ harassment actions in the past.
Putin is a known risk-taker. On balance, it appears that Putin intended this.
Escalation Management
The good news is that NATO badly outguns Russia, and anything more serious than occasional air and sea harassment is beyond its capabilities. Russia’s economy is about 2 trillion USD in size. The European Union’s economy is ten times that of Russia’s, and America’s economy is fifteen times greater.
Even the US has defected on NATO cooperation due to US President Donald Trump’s hesitation regarding US alliances. Meanwhile, European NATO has more than the necessary capacity to out-arms-race Russia, and it is on track this year to spend much more than in the past.
Su-35 from China. Image Credit: Chinese Air Force PLAAF.
NATO’s imminent build-up should allow it to control or manage escalation with the Russians. A Russian territorial incursion into Poland or the Baltics—effectively an invasion—would be hugely risky. Such direct aggression would activate NATO’s collective defense and provoke a war that Russia would lose. That is unlikely.
Similarly, Russian nuclear use is hugely risky. Russian TV pundits have emphasized Russian nuclear power as the Ukraine war has worsened for Russia. Nukes are one of Russia’s last, explicit claims to great power status. But nuclear weapons suffer from obvious problems as actual tools of diplomacy or coercion.
Nuclear bluffs have an obvious credibility problem. Few people believe states will use them outside genuine emergencies. Putin’s nuclear threats in Ukraine, for example, are so transparently fake that Putin has occasionally had actually to say, ‘we are not bluffing.’ Similarly, using nuclear weapons is hugely risky, as the global response is wildly unpredictable.
In short, nuclear and conventional attacks are highly unlikely. This leaves Russia primarily with gray zone harassment options—drones, GPS jamming, internet cable-cutting, hacking, and so on.
Spending on Gray Zone Retaliation
Given escalation fears, Russia’s best options regarding the West are asymmetric harassment. The West should respond in kind. Much of the Western debate on new defense spending has focused on large, expensive platforms—missiles, missile defense, stealth, and so on. And this is certainly needed. European NATO is too dependent on the US for these military staples.
But since the Russian direct challenge—conventional or nuclear—is manageable, some of this new NATO defense spending should go into gray zone options—to meet the Russians where they are. Hacking, for example, can be met by retaliatory hacks.
Undersea cable-cutting can be met by analogous acts of sabotage. Russian drone incursions over Poland or the Baltic should be shot down immediately. If Russia’s intent is to test NATO’s responsiveness, then let it see that NATO will destroy incursions as rapidly as they occur. NATO is wealthy enough to run frequent combat air patrols and dense radar coverage to respond quickly, as the operation to shoot down these drones illustrates.
Before we move rapidly to a dangerous ‘Article 5 moment with Russia, let us recall that we do have the resources to respond and manage Russian twilight tactics.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Kelly, Pusan National University
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University in South Korea. His research interests focus on Security in Northeast Asia, U.S. foreign policy, and international financial institutions. He has written for outlets including Foreign Affairs, the European Journal of International Relations, and the Economist, and he has spoken on television news services including BBC and CCTV. His personal website/blog is here; his Twitter page is here.
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Swamplaw Yankee
September 11, 2025 at 3:20 pm
Wow: Briefly violated: what a concept! Maybe western law can revise rape laws for a “Briefly Violated” concept for the victim. All observers must vote first as the rape victim must not have a say in the matter.
Yeah, POLAND was briefly violated by Putin’s great idol Stalin. While Stalin’s orc russkie NAZI-like KGB moved into Poland, “very briefly” the Polish had a chance to compare Stalin’s NAZI-like KGB to the real McCoy NAZI troops.
POLISH leaders had a briefly violated trip to Katyn. Ukraine had 20,000,000 Ukrainians briefly violated with no food, labeled the HOLODOMOR.
For fella’s far away from the missile/drone zones, hero talk is cheap on the op-ed. Yeah, Putin’s NAZI-like FSB briefly violate POW’s for 3 – 4 years with daily spa visits with NORMAL russkie ethnic torturers. Maybe the op-ed doubters need that 7 day spa certificate from downtown Kherson. Every op-ed keyboarder, none excepted needs a 24/7 7 day vacation exclusively inside downtown Kherson. Maybe after 12 months the data will come out how many op-ed keyboarders died or were maimed by the briefly violating drones!!
so who exactly is it that has the magic reserve of resources to respond minute by minute to the PRC CCP Xi regime missile/drone encursions?
The op-ed punter may be right about “Twilight” russkie tactics. He is wrong that the Russkie ancient 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians will stop being facilitated by the PRC CCP Xi regime ever. Xi agreed to the LONG GAME against the USA run by MAGA POTUS Trumpkins + the WEST+ there will be no twilight for Zi’s vassal Russkies with unlimited Xi cash flow!!
The LONG GAME is on with the Han PRC and the MAGA POTUS Trumpkins just blabs words that show Xi that Trump is incapable against the PRC CCP LONG GAME.
No matter how much agit-prop there is about brief violations. -30-
Jim
September 12, 2025 at 11:34 am
Putin’s Gamble?
No, Zelensky’s Gamble on a false flag.
Even a majority of Polish Citizens believe it was a Ukrainian false flag (38%) to attempt to re-energize support for the war and increase pressure for more money & weapons (what else is new), additional sanctions and the holy grail, a possible “no fly zone” in Western Ukraine, patrolled by American aircraft with American pilots.
In other words, draw the United States into the war and escalate it to a conventional World War Three.
Zelensky has seen off over half a million Ukrainians to their death in the name of a corrupt, illegitimate regime (sorry, you aren’t legitimate after a bloody, violent, overthrow of the duly elected president which then instituted a police-state). Don’t doubt for a second Zelensky wouldn’t be happy to see off a 100,000 American G. I.s to their death to keep his corrupt regime alive. (Or any Europeans stupid enough to send troops into Ukraine for immediate destruction.)
All the drones were “dummy” or decoy drones with no warheads and evidence suggests these likely came to Earth in Ukraine and were collected over time and refurbished to then send into Poland at a time of their choosing to provoke an escalation from the West and particularly the United States as it’s the only country which could save the sorry, corrupt regime in Kiev.
And everybody knows it.
False flag… but die-hards for Ukraine will never admit it.