Key Points and Summary – Russia’s Su-75 “Checkmate,” a single-engine fifth-generation stealth fighter unveiled in 2021, has struggled to find international buyers, putting the program’s survival in doubt.
-Marketed as a low-cost competitor to the F-35, the Su-75 has failed to secure orders from interested nations like India, the UAE, and Vietnam.
-In a desperate-seeming move to keep the project alive, Russia is now in talks with Belarus for a co-production and purchase agreement.
-If finalized, this deal would provide the Su-75 with its first customer but would also place a Russian-designed stealth fighter on NATO’s doorstep, creating a new security concern for the alliance.
Russia’s Su-75 Stealth Fighter Program Clawing and Scratching for Survival
Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate stealth fighter jet has struggled to catch on with Vladimir Putin’s air force and with foreign militaries worldwide.
The Su-75 was supposed to have many buyers by now, but international sales are not meeting expectations.
Russia has decided to partner with a country that was once part of the Soviet Union.
Talks are beginning with Belarus to explore how it could collaborate with Russia as a co-producer and customer for the Su-75.
If the deal is consummated, Belarus would be the first foreign user of the Su-75, and its deployment could make the airplane a concern for NATO and countries bordering the Eastern European nation.
Finland and Poland would not be happy with Su-75s stationed in Belarus.
Having Checkmates near the Baltic is sure to worry Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania as well.
Does NATO Have an Answer for the Su-75?
A stealth fighter operating so close to these countries would necessitate a new approach to NATO force projections in the region.
Alliance battle planners would need to examine how they conduct air policing with fourth-generation fighter jets and discern whether they could match the Su-75 in capability.
The main question would be how stealthy the Su-75 is.
The Russians are known for over-hyping and even lying about capabilities to intimidate adversaries.
Belarus does not have an overpowering air force, but it is strategically located and would provide Russia with an alternative means of attack from a friendly country.
This could swing the balance in favor of Vladimir Putin’s air force in an initial attack from the Su-75 from an ally.
Can Somebody Just Buy This Airplane?
As for Su-75 sales objectives, the airplane project must be considered a failure.
India, Algeria, the UAE, and Vietnam have expressed interest in purchasing the Checkmate, but none have finalized a sale.
A deal with Belarus seems to be a desperate ploy to keep the lights on, but it is not precisely what Putin and his defense industry envisioned when they designed the Su-75.
The Su-75 costs less than other fifth-generation jets, such as the F-35, at around $30 million per unit, but this bargain price tag has not generated much interest.
The Russians are unable to close Checkmate deals.
More Details About the Su-75
Russia would like the Su-75 to compete with China’s FC-31 on the export market. The Su-75 borrowed some stealth attributes from the Su-57 Felon. The Su-75 can hit speeds around MACH 1.8 to MACH 2.0. It has a range of more than 1,800 miles and a weapons payload of 16,300 pounds.
The Su-75 is a multi-role fighter that can undertake dogfighting or ground strike missions.
The Russians believe that their use of artificial intelligence in the cockpit leads to better situational awareness and survivability for the pilot.
The Su-75 is on the lighter side and has only one engine, but the airplane does have some power and is highly maneuverable due to its lower weight.
The Su-75 borrows many features and manufacturing techniques from the Su-57 Felon program. It has a similar cockpit and software. The Su-75 can be easily updated with its open architecture system. The aircraft is cheaper to fly as the Russians claim that maintenance needs will be lessened.
Shades of Cold War Airplane Procurement
The Checkmate was first introduced at the MAKS 2021 international air expo held in Zhukovsky, Russia, in July 2021. Russia had initially aimed to produce 300 units by now, but the program has been hindered by a lack of interest, forcing Putin to partner with Belarus. This reminds one of the Cold War, in which the Soviet Union made its republics become customers and co-producers of weapons systems.
Russia will need to make more sales of the Su-75 before the program can be deemed a success. While stationing the Su-75 in Belarus makes sense due to its strategic location, the program remains in dire straits without a partner country that would purchase it in significant numbers.
However, Western intelligence agencies should still track the Su-75 project, especially if this deal with Belarus comes to fruition. Having a fifth-generation stealth fighter on NATO’s doorstep is cause for concern.
Not a Big Hit Overseas
Nevertheless, Russia has a new disappointment on its hands. In four years of maximum marketing and sales effort, the Checkmate has not broken through and created any traction. The price is right, and the stealth features would make many air forces envious, but the Checkmate is simply not selling.
The rubles from international sales were supposed to keep the program in business into the 2030s. Now it looks like the Su-75 can only be forced on old Soviet republics that Putin leans on to take unwanted weapons systems.
That is not a triumphant development, and the Russians may need to devise new marketing strategies for the Checkmate before it becomes a stagnant program.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
The Best Tanks on Earth
AbramsX: The Tank the US Army Wants
Pingback: Russia's Su-35S Fighter Summed Up in 4 Words - National Security Journal