Russian President Vladimir Putin has the world’s largest arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons and has rattled his nuclear saber quite often since the war in Ukraine started, and as he keeps trying to use nuclear blackmail against the West.
Western intelligence and security analysts generally view the actual deployment of those weapons as highly unlikely. However, he keeps repeating it, trying to unnerve the West, but it has had the opposite effect.
MiG-31 Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-33 Flanker from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Tu-160 Bomber Russian Air Force Photo
Russia, Belarus Conduct Tactical Nuclear Drills
Russian forces, along with Belarus, conducted tactical nuclear drills last week over a three-day period ending on May 21.
The massive exercises involved roughly 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, 73 warships, and 13 submarines. The exercises featured test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) such as the Yars, as well as hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles.
Putin stated that the use of nuclear weapons remains “an extreme and exceptional measure for ensuring the national security” of the two countries.
“Today, as part of the exercises, we are conducting the first joint training of the armies of Russia and Belarus on managing strategic and tactical nuclear forces,” he added.
Lukashenko, in a statement typical of him, said, “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago,” after inspecting a Russian short-range, nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missile during the exercise.
Su-35 Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-57 Felon Screengrab from Russia. Image Credit: X Screengrab.
Putin Tried To Blackmail The West In 2024
In November of 2024, Putin tried lowering the bar for the use of nuclear weapons, but the West didn’t flinch. In a change to its nuclear doctrine, Putin announced that he had approved an updated nuclear document that governs how Russia uses its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine now includes a change that allows for Moscow to launch a nuclear strike if attacked by a non-nuclear country, such as Ukraine, that is supported by a nuclear state, such as the U.S.
It was formally approved the same day that Kyiv used its first U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against Russia.
Putin’s lowering of the threshold of Russia’s nuclear doctrine appeared to be a thinly veiled threat to the United States and NATO over their ramped-up support for Ukraine.
Why The Risk Of Nuclear War Remains Low
Up to this point, the risks of using a tactical nuclear weapon far outweigh any potential benefit of deploying one.
Tactical nuclear devices are battlefield weapons intended for concentrated troops or hardened bunkers, which are rare in the Ukraine war. Using them would also create radioactive zones that hinder Russian troop movements.
If Putin opens Pandora’s box of nuclear weapons, it opens up a scenario that will have devastating effects on Russia, as both the United States and NATO have frequently stated.
John Erath, senior policy director at the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said, “First and most obvious is that it’s difficult to see what they would hope to accomplish through the use of a nuclear weapon. They’re able to hit targets throughout Ukraine and cause widespread destruction and lots of civilian casualties.”
“It doesn’t make sense to use a weapon that leaves a lot of residual radiation on territory you want to occupy and in proximity to your own troops. So militarily, there’s little reason to use a nuclear weapon. If there’s a danger that one might be used, it would be more of a demonstration of Russian willingness to continue to escalate.
“The Russians want everybody to know that they are prepared to use levels of violence that everyone else would consider unacceptable in order to impose their will on Ukraine.”
However, some defense analysts believe that Putin could resort to the tactical use of nukes. James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., said, “I am legitimately worried that in that circumstance, Putin might use a nuclear weapon – most likely on the ground in Ukraine to terrify everyone and get his way. We are not at that point yet.”
Putin Doesn’t Want To Alienate China Or India
Russia’s ally of convenience for the time being, China, has frequently warned against nuclear escalation. Xi Jinping warned Putin to stop the nuclear threats back in late 2022, aware that such escalation could get out of hand.
After Putin threatened nuclear blackmail, Indian defense minister Rajnath Singh warned his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu against nuclear use and cautioned that nuclear use “goes against the basic tenets of humanity.”
The fact that Putin has been forced to use nuclear blackmail shows how far off the rails his “special military operation” has gone. Nearly four and a half years after the invasion, Russia still hasn’t achieved one of its strategic goals.
And threatening to use a tactical nuclear device isn’t going to change anything. While it is never impossible, the chances of it occurring are very low.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
