Key Points and Summary – The Su-75 Checkmate is being crowded out by war economics and operational reality.
-Russia’s defense industry is focused on consumables and cheap mass—tanks, shells, drones—while refinery strikes and lower fuel exports tighten funding.
Su-75 Checkmate. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-75 Checkmate and Su-57. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-In Ukraine’s dense air-defense environment, Russia flies standoff profiles; a new dogfighter adds little, especially with Su-30/35/57 and MiG-35 already in service.
-The math favors $35,0000 one-way drones over a $35,000,000 stealth jet with steep flight-hour costs. Sanctions, Su-57 teething, and absent export customers further undercut viability.
-For now—and likely for years—the Su-75 is more marketing than metal.
Su-75 Checkmate: Just a Fake Stealth Fighter?
Industrial bottlenecks and a defense industry stretched thin by production of armored vehicles leave little industrial capacity or operational application in Russia for the Su-75 fighter jet.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s fossil-fuel refining capacity are damaging the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war, let alone finance ambitious aerospace projects.
Evolution
Several iterations of the Su-75 have appeared online or at airshows. The Sukhoi Design Bureau constructed a full-scale mockup in 2021 for a defense trade show, offering a first glimpse at the proposed aircraft. Speculation on the aircraft’s capabilities ran wild at the time, with specific estimates attributed to a warplane that existed in name only.
Even when Russian aerospace conglomerate United Aircraft Corporation released a photo of the Checkmate on its Telegram channel, it appeared to have been digitally manipulated.
There are several reasons why the proposed aircraft is unlikely to enter production in the near future.
Myriad Problems
The Russian Defense Ministry is currently facing severe budgetary constraints. The high costs of sign-up bonuses (partially financed by the Russian regions) and the heavy tilt of funding toward the war in Ukraine leave precious little for ambitious projects.
The complexities of designing, prototyping, and fielding a fifth-generation stealth fighter create uncertainty and raise the prospect of cost overruns and missed milestones.
The land-centric warfare in Ukraine’s east is augmented by massed drone, ballistic, and cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure throughout the country. That kind of fight leaves little relevant application for a stealth fighter. Sustaining military operations means procuring ammunition, repairing damaged vehicles, and replenishing losses. There is little room for other priorities.
The robust air defenses at the frontline in Ukraine make the country the world’s most contested airspace. Consequently, the kind of fighter-on-fighter dogfighting that the Checkmate is seemingly optimized for has been fleetingly rare during this conflict. Instead, Russian aircraft are used as long-range stand-off strike platforms that launch a variety of missiles at Ukrainian targets.
Even Russia’s domestically vaunted Su-57, notionally a stealth fighter, is used for these kinds of stand-off attacks. It studiously avoids entering contested airspace, and there is little reason to believe that a new, immature Russian fighter would be more survivable.
Su-75 Checkmate. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-57. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
A quick back-of-the-napkin cost analysis also does not bode well for the Checkmate.
Iran-derived Shahed one-way attack drones are estimated to cost about $35,000 per unit. With a range of about 2,000 kilometers and a 40-kilogram explosive warhead, these drones can be mass-produced very quickly. So why build an expensive manned fighter jet that would put pilots in harm’s way? One analysis estimated the costs of the Checkmate at between $30–35 million per jet, with flight-hour costs potentially six or seven times more than those of the F-35, a single-engine fifth-generation stealth fighter.
In the short and medium term, Russia’s ability to finance its war against Ukraine faces constraints. Ukrainian strikes across Russia have knocked nearly a fifth of Russian refineries offline since the end of August.
Russian diesel exports are down by nearly a third compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2020. Moscow’s partial ban on diesel exports is evidence of an energy squeeze on an economy tied to fossil fuel extraction and export.
Ukraine’s new FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles and U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, which U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced would be supplied to Kyiv, will likely exacerbate the fuel crunch. Although attacks are unlikely to cripple the Russian economy, a decline in earnings from energy sales is anticipated.
Su-75 Checkmate Not Going to Happen? Well…
If the Sukhoi Design Bureau were to begin prototyping the Su-75, its first customer would be the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
However, considering the variety of aircraft the VKS already flies — the Su-30, Su-35, Su-57, and MiG-35 — it seems exceedingly unlikely there is an immediate role for yet another fighter.
Furthermore, the difficulties Sukhoi has experienced with the Su-57 do not inspire confidence in the aerospace firm’s ability to deliver a powerful new fifth-generation fighter, despite the anticipated commonalities between the Su-57 and Su-75 — particularly a shared power plant.
Given the apparent lack of foreign interest in the proposed Su-75, it seems unlikely that foreign financing for the project will materialize anytime soon.
Following Russia’s disastrous full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a diversification away from legacy Soviet weapon systems has been observed in Europe and elsewhere, with little indication the trend will reverse.
For the time being — and perhaps for the foreseeable future — it seems unlikely that the Su-75 Checkmate will find the interest or the funding to enter production.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
More Military
Ready, Aim, Fire! The 5 Best Battleships of All Time
The F-35 Stealth Fighter Still Haunts the U.S. Military
Does Russia Even Need a Powerhouse Navy?
The YF-118G Bird of Prey Stealth Fighter Haunts the U.S. Air Force
