Key Points and Summary – Despite Russian claims that its Su-57 “Felon” is a world-class fifth-generation stealth fighter, its actual radar-evading capabilities are highly questionable and likely inferior to American F-22 and F-35 jets.
-According to analysis from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), the Felon has a radar profile more akin to a fourth-generation non-stealth aircraft.
-This lack of true all-aspect stealth likely explains the Russian air force’s risk-averse strategy in Ukraine, where they avoid flying the Su-57 over areas protected by advanced Western air defenses like the Patriot system, rendering it more of a 4++ generation fighter than a true peer competitor.
Just How Stealthy Is the Russian Su-57 Felon Fighter Jet?
By now, you are aware of Vladimir Putin’s braggadocio. The Russian dictator has a big mouth, especially when it comes to military hardware. He lauds the class of “super weapons” that are supposed to make the Russian defense forces the best in the world. He often mis-speaks and over-promises, giving the impression that the Russian military can overawe all near-peer competitors and win wars with ease.
Just take a look at the Su-57 Felon. The Russian fifth-generation warplane was supposed to achieve air dominance in the skies over Ukraine. It has mostly only flown over Russian air space as Putin and his generals worry that a destroyed Felon would give the Ukrainians a propaganda victory. The Felon is supposed to be fully stealth too, but we can’t be sure if this is true.
Full Radar Evasion for the Su-57? Not So Fast
The Felon may have a certain level of stealth characteristics, but can it totally evade enemy radar? If you believe Putin and his air force generals, you may side with the Russians and conclude that the Su-57 is second to none. But these individuals are known for telling tall tales and over-hyping their instruments of war.
F-22 and F-35 Are More Stealthy
There is just no way that the Su-57 Felon is as stealthy as the F-22 and F-35.
Those American-made airplanes led the world in the level of radar evasive capabilities.
Could the Su-57 really avoid and defeat modern air defenses like the Patriot and THAAD?
My money is on U.S. surface-to-air missiles and American radar systems. The Felon may be maneuverable in a dogfight, but it is unlikely to disappear completely from a radar scope.
Vadim Badeha, leader of the United Aircraft Corporation, prattled on with the Felon’s alleged stealth capability. “The most important quality of our homegrown technology is its stealth. That allows our Su-57 to carry out operations the F-16 can’t even dream of,” according to an interview in March noted by BulgarianMilitary.com.
The Su-57 Felon is indeed stealthier than the F-16. This is an apples-to-oranges comparison since the latest version of the F-16 is a fourth-generation + warplane and the Su-57 is allegedly a fifth-generation. The Russians claim that the Su-57 has a radar cross-section of between 0.1 and 1 square meters. That would likely make it tough to bring down by the Patriot and THAA,D should the spin doctors in the Russian air force be correct.
Patriot SAMs With Advanced Radar Can Track a Su-57
However, the Patriot air defender has a group of excellent radar systems. The AN/MPQ-53 or upgraded AN/MPQ-65 radar on the PAC-2 and PAC-3 Patriot would likely spot a Su-57. Then it would be up to the Russian aviators to avoid the Patriot interceptors. Ukraine, Poland, and Germany deploy the Patriot missile system.
The THAAD radar, specifically the AN/TPY-2, is so advanced that it can identify and track hypersonic missiles. Since it has this capability, the sensor system should have no trouble with a Su-57.
The Center of European Policy Analysis (CEPA) think tank also doubts the stealthiness of the Felon. “Stealth, in particular, is an area where the Su-57 seemingly falls short compared to its Western counterparts. Effective stealth design reduces an aircraft’s radar cross-section [RCS], allowing it to avoid detection and gain the upper hand in longer-range engagements. However, the Felon reportedly has a radar profile similar to that of fourth-generation non-stealth aircraft,” according to CEPA.
What If the Felon Is Just a Fourth-Generation Airplane?
So, perhaps the Su-57 is not even a fifth-generation warplane. True fifth-generation birds are fully stealthy. The Felon could be considered a fourth-generation ++ fighter. This is bad news for the Russians as they weigh the combat balance in Europe. Russia has lauded the Su-57 so much that most online scribes just parrot the talking points.
If the Su-57 is a fourth-generation ++, that could explain the air force’s unwillingness to fly it over Ukraine that much. The Patriot systems in Kyiv could make the Russians pay for deploying the Felon over the Ukrainian capital.
The Radar Evasion of a JAS 39 Gripen
Moreover, when it comes to NATO, many U.S. partners fly the F-35. In a dog fight, the Lightning II could have an edge, especially when it comes to beyond-visual-range missile launches. Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen is not considered a stealth fighter, but it does have some radar-evading characteristics. It would be quite a disappointment if the Su-57 is not much better than a Gripen.
Overall, the Su-57 may be overrated in terms of stealth. It may not be a “super weapon,” and more like a fourth-generation + or fourth-generation ++ fighter. Putin has again oversold a bill of goods, and it shows that you can’t always believe the Russian hype machine.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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