Key Points and Summary on China’s Air Force – China’s Air Force, once a technologically lagging service, has rapidly modernized and now poses a formidable challenge to American air dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
-The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) now fields two fifth-generation stealth fighters, the J-20 and J-35, and is developing two new stealth bombers, the JH-XX and H-20.
-Even its 4.5-generation J-10CE fighter proved its lethality in recent combat, with Pakistan reportedly using it to down four Indian Rafale jets.
-While US pilots may still have an edge in training, China’s massive investment in advanced, numerous, and capable aircraft has erased America’s once-unquestioned technological superiority.
China’s Airplanes and Pilots Are Ready to Dominate
The Chinese Air Force has made significant progress over the last two decades. Chinese pilots used to refuse to fly at night and in adverse weather conditions. The airplanes were clunky, slow, and old.
There weren’t enough warbirds to threaten Taiwan sufficiently, less dominate the airspace in the Indo-Pacific. This was a mere air policing force 20 years ago, not a group of airplanes capable of bullying China’s far-flung neighbors during offensive missions.
That era is over. The Middle Kingdom now has two stealth fighter jets, two next-generation bombers, and a fresh outlook on aggressive aviation practices. Its airplanes constantly fly near Taiwan with grey zone tactics to intimidate the island at a heightened threat level between war and peace.
Are the Americans at a Disadvantage?
How can America keep up? The Navy relies on an older fighter, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The Navy and Marine Corps do have the stealth F-35s, but are there enough to win a large dogfight against China? It appears the Navy’s plans for a 6th-generation fighter – the F/A-XX – have been put on hold. The Air Force’s B-21 Raider stealth bomber will be a huge help, but it won’t be completely ready until the early to mid-2030s.
The same applies to the sixth-generation F-47 NGAD fighter. This airplane will have redeeming qualities, but it will take approximately eight years to reach initial operating capability. The Americans need a spark now.
How Well Will Chinese Pilots Perform?
U.S. Air Force and Navy aviators have the edge in skill, training, and combat experience. Chinese pilots have no combat record, but they constantly fly missions from land and aircraft carriers. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force and Navy (PLAAF and PLAN) are serious about gaining air superiority over the Americans.
Take a Look at All of These Modernized Fighters and Bombers
China features the J-20, a fifth-generation fighter with stealth characteristics. The Mighty Dragon may not be fully stealthy, but Beijing’s defense industry churns them out in numbers – enough to populate 12 air brigades. The J-20 is their answer to the F-35.
The J-35 is another stealth model, and there is also a naval carrier-borne version. This is a multi-role fighter that can also engage in ground and sea attacks. J-35s have a modern active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The two engines produce 25,000 pounds of thrust, enabling super cruise capability. The J-35 will be a tough customer in the future.
The JH-XX is a next-generation medium-sized bomber. The JH-XX is tail-less and should have radar evasion capability. This is 30 percent larger than the J-20 Mighty Dragon. The JH-XX has a flying delta-wing design that borrows its shape from the United States. The JH-XX may have three powerful engines enabling decent speed and extended range for bombing runs beyond the First Island Chain.
China’s H-20 is a secretive program that aims to build a stealth bomber larger than the JH-XX. This would be analogous to the American B-2 Spirit known for its recent raid on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure with bunker-busting bombs. China is making significant strides in the H-20 program, and the U.S. Department of Defense is closely monitoring its development. The H-20 should be able to reach Guam in the Second Island Chain.
Blue Ribbon for Chinese Aerospace Engineers and Designers
Xi Jinping’s air force is formidable and has a bright future ahead. The newer airplanes may not be as stealthy as advertised, but Chinese designers and engineers are moving in the right direction. The workers are patriotic and have high morale, and they are keen to demonstrate their engineering prowess in the construction of modern fighters and bombers.
A Less Imposing Chinese Fighter Has a Moment
Even the older J-10, not one of China’s best airplanes, has enjoyed a renaissance. The export version of the J-10 is just as fast and maneuverable as the base model. The Pakistani air force used it to significant effect against India in clashes in May by downing at least four French-made Indian fighter jets. The Chinese public was so excited about the performance of the homegrown fighter that some Internet users celebrated a song dedicated to the J-10.
The brief battle between India and Pakistan demonstrates that large-scale dogfights are still possible, and American battle planners closely monitored the aerial combat between the two fierce rivals.
American pilots will have their work cut out for them should a combat air engagement with China arise. The Chinese seem to match the United States at every turn. The airplanes and pilots are capable of being shot down, perhaps the best the Americans have to offer.
When it comes to new bombers, the Chinese are forging ahead, and one day, they will be able to project power and potentially destroy American assets in Japan, South Korea, and Guam. It is unclear how they would fare against U.S. air defenses, such as the Patriot and THAAD, but the bombers could utilize their radar-evading features to evade American radar and sensors.
In all, the Chinese have made significant strides in equipping their air force and navy with powerful aircraft. The People’s Republic is no slouch, and the days when they were down and out with poor to average airplanes and lackluster pilots are over. The U.S. Department of Defense and Congress will continue to produce reports on China’s military power and ask questions about the strength of the Middle Kingdom. The news won’t be good.
The Americans must lean on the individual skill of their aviators and hope the training can overcome the powerful advances in the aviation capabilities of the PLAAF and PLAN. All indications show that China is ready for war.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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