Would a Taiwan-China Conflict Lead to World War III? The situation between Taiwan and China is a mess.
Xi Jinping could order an amphibious reunification attack against Taipei at any time. China’s navy and air force are continually conducting drills – either huge flights of airplanes near Taiwan to intimidate the government or ships in the Taiwan Strait that could be deployed around the island for a potential quarantine or blockade.
Many fear a massive conflict if the United States ever engages in military reprisals against China for its designs on Taiwan.
Would the US Navy and Air Force come to the rescue of Taipei? How about Japan? What would Tokyo’s response be? This could spark a wider conflict and place the world on edge, as the countries could see the most enormous conflagration of violence in East Asia since the Korean War.
What Laws and Treaty Obligations Are the US and Taiwan Bound By?
The United States used to have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan between 1955 and 1980. Since then, the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 has primarily governed relations between the United States and Taiwan. Militarily, it is ambiguous. There is no guarantee under the agreement that the Americans would come to the rescue of the Taiwanese should the Chinese attack the island. The US President and Congress have leeway to support Taiwan by selling weapons to defend it. Otherwise, there is little specific legal guidance over the U.S.-Taiwan military relationship.
Still An Ambiguous Situation
President Joe Biden said in 2022 that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Xi Jinping ordered some attack. President Donald Trump has not clarified his Taiwan policy, so we are currently in a “Strategic Ambiguity” era concerning Taiwan and China.
Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has been in office for a year and wants peaceful relations between his country and China. However, he said Taiwan should continue to arm itself for defensive purposes. China has said that Lai is a “separatist.”
US Advisors Are Helping Taiwan
The United States can help Taiwanese military personnel defend the island, and a small force of US special operations forces is there to be observers and trainers to maintain some sort of direct military relationship between Washington and Taipei.
What Would the US Navy and Air Force Do?
The question is – would the United States come to Taiwan’s rescue during an attack or if there was a blockade incident conducted by China to strangle Taiwan’s economy and endanger its food and energy supplies?
This depends on how one defines US national interest in the region. Michael Swaine , a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, believes that the defense of Taiwan is not a vital strategic interest for the US military.
“Defending Taiwan to the point of going to war with China, I don’t believe is a vital US interest, no. If you define a vital interest in exactly those terms, what is the United States willing to go to full-fledged war over, this time with a major nuclear power, then I would say Taiwan does not meet that bar. Taiwan has never been regarded as a strategically critical location for the United States in Asia,” Swaine told PBS on May 20.
Taiwan Is Building Its Defense Forces
Randall Schriver is the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs. He is slightly more hawkish, but he knows that US power in the region is limited even though China has been belligerent. Schriver believes that the Americans have answered China with effective diplomacy in the past. Plus, Taiwan is engaging in self-help policies.
“Taiwan is spending more on its defense. I think it’s up to 2.4 percent of GDP now. As you noted, the president is committed to getting to 3 percent, and that’s a floor, not a ceiling. So they’re going in the right direction. They’re also spending on things related to national resilience, which don’t get counted in the defense budget, but more secure communications, energy stockpiles, other kinds of support for continuity of government, and civil defenses. All these things aren’t counted, and they’re investing more heavily there,” Schriver said.
That still leaves the Trump administration’s current and future policy toward Taiwan. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been more concerned about “woke” culture wars within the military and eliminating DEI efforts that were so popular during the Biden administration. He wants a more “lethal” military, and that could include more aggressive policies in the Taiwan Strait. So far, Hegseth’s tenure has been spent leading the fight against Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen. Taiwan seems to be on the back burner for now.
Trump is often willing to avoid “Forever Wars” that give open-ended commitments and conflicts that become quagmires like the lengthy Middle East and South Asia wars. He believes in peace through strength, which has not translated into specific US policy towards Taiwan in China. The president has toughened up against Xi on trade, which seems to be the biggest concern.
China has a prickly sense of sovereignty when it comes to Taiwan. Xi believes this is the ultimate defense issue, which defines his tenure as supreme leader. There is pressure on Xi to “do something” to Taiwan and bring it back into Beijing’s orbit. The Chinese president cannot “lose” Taiwan. He believes that Chinese historians and the public would consider his entire reign a failure if China does not settle the Taiwan question in the coming years.
I have written repeatedly that China would first conduct a blockade of the island before an attack. Its military would continue to quarantine Taiwan until Taipei agreed to closer ties – even forcing them to allow China’s total annexation of the country. This is the likeliest scenario, and the United States and Japan would have to devise a response that would not spark a greater war.
However, Trump is always unpredictable, and a Chinese attack or blockade could stoke his worst impulses. Plus, he is unpopular in China due to high tariffs and the trade war against Beijing. He could be provoked by a violent confrontation between China and Taiwan, but don’t look for all-out World War Three. Trump doesn’t want to risk US blood and treasure over a blockade, and he may let the cards fall as they may when it comes to Taiwan policy. That would be fine with Xi as China finds a way to solve the Taiwan problem for good.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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